SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 2/27
  
  

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For those who followed our selected Graded stakes analysis -- you were rewarded in yesterday's Saudi Cup if you utilized our unders, as our third selection got the job done at an amazing $229 to win !!  Additionally, our top choice ( beneath Alexis Moreno ) completed the superfecta at a whopping 50-1 !!

As for Aqueduct, we're now at 328:83-50-53 on the stand ( $638 Bet/$759.30 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least March 13th.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #1 Repo Rocks


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 2/27

 

Race  1

1.School of Thought

2.Wicked Happy

3.Thatsjustlovely

#3 SCHOOL OF THOUGHT has partaken in the superfecta in five of six, exits a a race where both next out returnees got the job done ( elevating their Beyers by an average of 4.5 points ), takes the biggest drop in the game today, and adds blinkers as well. Looks like graduation day, with the only main threat being the #1 WICKED HAPPY. That five year old mare is pretty much a professional maiden these days ( 22:M-6-9-4 ), and should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #4 THATSJUSTLOVELY begins her working life for an outfit that has never won with a firster, but this one is a half to three runners who have gone 5 for 18, 5 for 30 & 5 for 23 on the sand, and gets in light. 

 

Race  2

1.Got the Gold

2.B C Glory Days

3.Sir William 

#4 GOT THE GOLD has immolated baccala in his last pair, but Papa Englehart owns a 2 for 2 mark with maiden claiming dirt stock off breaks of 51-53 days, AND a 1 for 1 mark when substituting that level with today's track ( $14, $3 & $7 ). #2 B C GLORY DAYS ( dig the moniker ) is available for purchase for the first time this afternoon ( or any other afternoon, for that matter ), which is highly relevant, as Terranova is a "Terror" with dirt dashers at this level off hiatus' of 38-50 days ( @ 15-1 or undah ), w/returns of $4, $8, $5, $6 & $16. #5 SIR WILLIAM has cashed a few checks of late & can do such once again. 

 

Race  3

1.Happy Farm

2.Free Enterprise 

3.Aristocratic

#2 HAPPY FARM has been beset by layoff lines throughout his abbreviated career, but 8YO has an 11:5-2-0-1 ledger off the pine, owns a sweet 19:7-5-1 "declining" mark at today's trip, and from an itty bitty survey, RR is on track with his locally based runners at this level off L/O's of 51-93 days, as he's two of three. #5 FREE ENTERPRISE hasn't been seen since Turkey Time, but owns a two for five mark off a break, and found the line first in his only try at this track. #3 ARISTOCRATIC loves it here ( 10:4-0-4 ), and that's reason enough to include. 

 

Race  4 

1.Infeasible

2.Eddie the Great

3.Silvermill

#1 INFEASIBLE has finished in the back half of the pack in both starts to date, but slides all the way down here, which works for us, as Atras has scored with both of his dirt runners doing such off absences of < 38 days ( $17 & $3 ). Second time Lasix today as well. #6 EDDIE THE GREAT is dropped a few pegs in this spot, but we'll leave him beneath because of his money burning ways. #7 SILVERMILL owns some ugly running lines, but is 2nd time juice, hood, & dirt while also drawing ideally. 

 

Race  5

1.Saratoga Beauty

2.Awesome Indra

3.Miss Peppina

#7 SARATOGA BEAUTY has been claimed eight straight times ( something we can't recall seeing ). Will likely make it nine straight with a heavy shake, as this gal ( who has won two of three ) always gives it the college try. #2 AWESOME INDRA is another popular item in the racing office, as she's changed addresses after eight of her last ten when eligible for such ), and given her penchant for faring well both at this trip & over this strip, we'll incorporate. #5 MISS PEPPINA closed out the tri in both "3rd off the L/O" jammies, and should be in the thick of things late. 

 

Race  6 

1.Lucky Brody

2.Midaswellrun

3.Flyingwithangels

#5 LUCKY BRODY has outran his parimutual offering over the last pair, has hit the board in 3 of 4 at today's distance of ground, and shedrow is a tight 3 fer 4 with the same parameters listed below ( 11-1 or less, $5, $7 & $9 ). #6 MIDASWELLRUN will be led over by a 22% shotcaller who improves that by 50% ( 5-15 ) with his Aqueduct based maiden claiming dirt stock who ARE getting "The Big L", that were 1-2-3 10 to 50 days in the rear ( 6-1 or undah ), with payoffs of $7, $3, $5 x 2 & $9. #2 FLYINGWITHANGELS is a $500,000 purchase ( that you can add $40,000 to for a year's worth or training fees, maybe $20,000 for farm fees, and some insurance money as well ) who has banked just $21,456 to date ( Yikes ), but given his knack for making the super, along with the fact that he gets in light, we'll include. 

 

Race  7

1.Fast Getaway

2.Secret Rules

3.South Sea

#2 FAST GETAWAY is one of two on the main ( with the lone blemish coming at first asking, which is completely understandable ), is 5:2-1-0-1 when coming back after a hibernation ( in races where the jock stayed on ), and is still kept way above the purchase price from two back. Jackie gets the call, and she owes us nothing. #8 SECRET RULES ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) closed out the exacta in both "true" 2nd off the shelf engagements, and is backed by a 2-5 trainer stat which has this clan at just that w/ optional dirt stock right here who were ITM 34-50 days back ( $4 & $10 ). #4 SOUTH SEA blasted cheaper by a bunch here three dozen days back & can grab a piece.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 REPO ROCKS fills the bill, as this "Miracle" barn is 0-10 w/ optional dirt stock who hit the board < 44 days ago.  NOTE: AS OF 10:38, #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Beautiful Karen

2.Betsy Blue

3.Chasing Cara

Hard to believe we landed on a couple of Linda rice runners here, the way the barn's been going, buuuuuuut....  #2 BEAUTIFUL KAREN has a 2 for 2 DRF Formulator stat behind her, as her trainer ( who is STILL -- yes, STILL awaiting final resolution on her license revocation ) is just that with AQU based opt, dirt runners who crashed the fiesta less than three fortnights back that are 13-1 or less ( $5 & $8. #11 BETSY BLUE ( 4:3-1-0 at this locale ) is also backed by a decent trainer statistic, as the outfit is 3:2-10- with those of this ilk off sabbaticals of 51-297 days ( $10 & $16 ). #8 CHASING CARA has done her best work here, carries the lightest tonnage of her career, and may spice things up a tad. 

 

Race  9 

1.Bee Bit

2.Sweet Mia

3.Charge Account

#3 BEE BIT has been kept in jail since the snag, and returns at 7K less for a bossman who's won 4 of 10 with his newly purchased mid level dirt sprinters who were off the board 22-50 days in the past ( $9 x 2, $6 & $8 ), with a sub category of 1-1 with Dylan in the irons. #5 SWEET MIA won at this level last time out, so why not again? #4 CHARGE ACCOUNT closes out the month.  


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 83-328  ( $759.30 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-34 ( 29.4% )   Favorites   Win %:   118-328  ( 36% ) ( As of Sunday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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