SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/4
  
  

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Definitely snakebitten here on Sunday ( 9:0-5-2 ), but we're still 337:83-55-55 on the stand ( $674 Bet/$759.30 Returned ), as we're guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least March 13th. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #1 Foolish Ghost


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/4

 

Race  1

1.Love's Misery

2.Roma Carpe

3.My Delicious

#2 LOVE'S MISERY has finished in the first half of the field in all three dirt starts to date, including a solid showing right here back in December. From a DRF Formulator point of view, Atras is an honest three for nine with his maiden claiming dirt stock getting Lasix, who missed the baccala 6-50 days back ( $4, $14 & $17 ). #6 ROMA CARPE hasn't faced the starter in 17 days less than a year, but gets an upgrade in the trainer dept. for today's comebacker, and couldn't land in a weaker spot. #1 MY DELICIOUS was a well beaten but well clear runner up in a similar spot on the 12th of Ferbruary, and makes all kinds of sense here. 

 

Race  2

1.Tale of Mist

2.Lohengrin Two

3.Banyan Breeze

#6 TALE OF MIST has always been more of a nibbler than anything else, but there's an excellent barn stat in play behind this nine year old "horse" ( You hang on to those pistachios, buddy ! ). Randi Persaud ( who only wins 6% of his starts ) is a jazzy 16:7-4-0-3 w/locally based older male horses at this level who haven't been seen in < 26 days @ 5-1 or less ( WITH blinks & the wonder drug ). The winners for that study came back $11, $7 x 2, $10, $8 x 2 & $9, and this one's best work has come at today's distance of ground. #4 LOHENGRIN TWO appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and history tells us this one can improve off the last wet track outing. #3 BANYAN BREEZE is 2:1-1-0 at a comparative level & must be respected on the dropdown.  

 

Race  3

1.Mebs Web

2.Stencil

3.Awesomenewyear

#7 MEBS WEB is in pretty good form since being freshened up a bit, and owns a two for eight record at today's dx., compared to being oh-fer-24 @ other trips. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #2 STENCIL lost by less than a length two placings behind a next out winner the only time she was entered this cheaply, and jock sticks around despite the recent flop. #5 AWESOMENEWYEAR as bad as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  4 

1.Norman Queen

2.Early Edition

3.Chloe Rose 

#4 NORMAN QUEEN has been a completely different animal since being transferred to the main, as she's just three parts of the length short of a 2 for 2 mark, and they'll have to grab her by the tail to get the glory. #1 EARLY EDITION won by a country mile the last time she stepped hoof on a fast track and must be left in the mix. #3 CHLOE ROSE is another whose best work has come over a glib surface ( 11:3-4-3 ) and that includes a 3:1-1-1 ledger with Franco in the irons. 

 

Race  5

1.Three Jokers

2.Winter Pool

3.Son of an Ex

#1 THREE JOKERS has done some fine work for Terranova over the last few years, and was a lively runner up the only time he went from one turn to two, while owning a 3:1-1-1 boxscore when first to load. Appears to have the best chance of gunning down the fave, #5 WINTER POOL ( who should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there ). Aforementioned Brown charge has the best collection of #'s in the group while being 3:1-2-0 when making that second left on a track labeled FST; deserving favorite. #6 SON OF AN EX has been a more than successful private purchase by Randi, and although we disapprove of the wheelback off short rest -- against open foes, no less -- we wouldn't be surprised if he sucked up for third place bread today. 

 

Race  6 

1.Sudden Impulse

2.Summary Judgement 

3.How Lucky

#5 SUDDEN IMPULSE bested more than half the field in her return engagement, and is reacquainted with eye cups this afternoon -- with which she secured her lone victory. Lone "2nd off the L/O" try on a quick surface yielded an adjusted figaro of 58.1, and while that number unto itself would merit some inclusion here, keep in mind that it came when falling to her face at the onset. Could be a solid number in this truncated allotment. #4 SUMMARY JUDGEMENT has partaken in the super in three of her last four, and makes all kinds of sense against these. #6 HOW LUCKY is one of two off the pine and gets a hot bug in the saddle. 

 

Race  7

1.Eloquent Speaker

2.Royal Meghan

3.Tara's Talent

#1 ELOQUENT SPEAKER was privately purchased after placing in the La Verdad, and new bossman has a crisp 9:4-0-2-1 record when being handed a runner & spotting them in a dirt dash off braks of 51-71 days ( 14-1 or beneath ). The mutuels for that survey were $7, $6 x 2 & $3, and the five year old positively loves it here as well. #2 ROYAL MEGHAN is a steady if unspectacular sort who recently showed behind a next out victress, and is eligible to move up if the track stays dry. #4 TARA'S TALENT has always preferred the fringes, so we'll leave beneath. 

 

Race  8 

1.Bad Guy

2.Sicilia Mike

3.Golani Brigade

#6 BAD GUY merely split the field in his most recent, but totes the lightest impost of hid working life, and has done alright at this trip & strip. Most timid of selections. #5 SICILIA MIKE has hit the board in just about 2/3rd's of his starts at today's dist., and was quite photogenic the last time he was in a third off the shelf spot. Hasn't thrown in many clunkers of late, so we'll toss in. #4 GOLANI BRIGADE has a 3:1-0-1 boxscore in third off the bench jammies and can grab a piece.  NOTE: AS OF 3:25 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUT TOP TWO SELECTIONS, AND THE #1 FOOLISH GHOST WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE. 


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 83-337  ( $759.30 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-34 ( 29.4% )   Favorites   Win %:   122-337  ( 36.2% ) ( As of Friday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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