SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/5 - Gotham Stakes


Profitable three bagger on the day for us yesterday, along with a successful Beatable Favorite, an Ice Cold $15 Quinella, and a $29 Exacta Reverse, as we're 345:86-57-55 on the stand ( $690 Bet/$775.80 Returned ), and guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least March 18th.

Just a reminder that for coverage of today's three Grade One's from Santa Anita Park, merely go back one page. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/5 - Gotham Stakes


Race  1



3.Sinful Dancer

#4 EVERESTING has gone 58-65-70 in his troika of dirt forays thus far, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Colt catches a glib surface for just the second time, and barn has fared decently with limited starters to date. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 SCHERZANDO has turned the corner since early October having been a part of the superfecta in five straight, and should be in the thick of things once again. #1 SINFUL DANCER hasn't been in action since last June, but was doing nice work back then and is an obvious factor if sound & fully cranked up. 


Race  2

1.Long Term

2.Don the Jeweler


#4 LONG TERM has had some "seconditis" since starting things out three months back -- burning some baccala along the way -- but we're somewhat assuaged by the fact that DRF Formulator has this barn at 6:3-3-0 with locally based mdspwt. dirt stock ( getting Lasix )who crashed the party less than 51 days back that are ridden by Carmouche ( $5 x 2 & $6 ). #2 DON THE JEWLER will do his best not to be a fugazi in this spot, and judging by the 405 Tomlinson for today's trip, as well as the $875K purchase price ( along with a bullet gate breeze ), he looks to be the real deal. #6 ELECTABILITY received the unkindest cut of all after besting but one in the 'Toga bow, and uncoupled entrymate of 'Don gets the wonder drug as well. 


Race  3


2.Prime Factor

3.Timeless Bounty

Today's first stakes of the day is named after the wonderful Hall of Famer Tom Fool ( 30:21-7-1 ), & for some info on this great one, please go to this site . As for the race itself, we'll lean towards the #3 OFFICIATING. Colt has gone 3:2-0-1 since being switched back to the main, and "Miracle Man" Saffie has an unblemished 4 for 4 ledger with his graded dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 20 to 50 days in the rear who are NOT getting the "Big L" ( 3-1 or undah ). #4 PRIME FACTOR went coast to coast like butter and toast when returned off nearly a nine month hibernation, and may land a share here. #2 TIMELESS BOUNTY completes the exacta in his sole "true" start off the bench and has done his best work at today's trip; could jazz things up beneath. 


Race  4 

1.Victory Built

2.Breaking Stones

3.Matty's Marauder

#1 VICTORY BUILT is a professional nibblah ( 30:1-10-4 ), but was a daylight clear runner up in this race two back ( despite getting smacked around at the onset ), and slides in six slots off that effort. It would behoove you to play this one across the board. #9 BREAKING STONES gave up the ghost when leading by more than four at this level on February 19th, but cuts back a panel here and may fare better on today's cutback. #3 MATTY'S MARAUDER has hit the board in three straight and should be in the thick of things once again. 


Race  5

1.Double Maker


3.State Planning

#4 DOUBLE MAKER starts things out this afternoon, and aside from having a nicely hidden gate move on the worktab ( 9th best of $181 ), boasts a decent 367 Tommy for the trip as well. Runner is a half to two multiple dirt winners from as many foals to race, and from the ittiest bittiest of samplings, Atras is two of four with dirt firsters at this level getting juice ( $32 & $9 ). #5 SENSIBLECONCLUSION has blinkers added after a sharp placing and sheds 112 ounces as well. Live chance. #6 STATE PLANNING showed precipitous improvement when catching a glib surface at 28-1 in the secondary engagement, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here. 


Race  6 

1.Hot Rod Rumble

2.Beach Boy Al

3.Safalow's Mission

#5 HOT ROD was a well beaten but gamely runner up in this race a month & a half ago, and while a bounce is always possible in a "2nd off the layoff/2nd time Lasix" scenario, we'll give him the nod based on the tidy 4:2-2-0 trainer stat with AQU based runners at this level getting Lasix who were ITM 34 to 50 days back ( $4 & $17 ). #3 BEACH BOY AL has played the fade in both starts, but the BSF's earned are honest enough, and we'd be remiss in excluding. #1 SAFALOW'S MISSION rounds out the tri. 


Race  7

1.Chris and Dave

2.Glory Road


It takes a lot for us to get to a Linda Rice runner these days, but we'll do just that with the #5 CHRIS AND DAVE. Five year old was next to last in the comebacker, but like so many runners from this barn, is on the dropdown. Nine year old has hit the board in about 2/3rd's of his starts at today's dx., and has fared well in second off the shelf dirt outings in the past. Slight choice. #1 GLORY ROAD hasn't been in action since Christmastime, but has never seen these depths, and owns a decent record both at this trip and over this strip. Could sit a decent pocket trip from the cozy slot. #8 KUMAR owns a nice declining mark of 30:7-3-2 and drops a bit in class off a hum drum 4th while being reunited with the pilot of his last win.  NOTE: AS OF 10:44, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-1-8.


Race  8 

1.Trash Talker

2.Bustin Shout


#6 TRASH TALKER bested what we would consider to be a tougher allotment a baker's dozen days back, so why not again? #5 BUSTIN SHOUT hasn't faced the starter since New Year's Day, but has completed the exacta in both true 2nd off the bench jammies, and it's hard to argue with those digging the 12 one-two finishes from 22 lifetime starts. #2 FITZPATRICK has a 3:1-2-0 mark when loading first ( 13:2-3-2 otherwise ), and we like how there's no scary drop. 


Race  9 

1.Magic Circle

2.Venti Valentine

3.Sterling Silver

#5 MAGIC CIRCLE went coast to coast like butter and toast against slightly weaker at the end of January, and although that was at two turns, this one has proven herself making just one left. Repeat well within reach vs. a so so allotment. #4 VENTI VALENTINE ( foaled on St. Valentine's Day ) is but a neck shy of being a perfect three for three, and is an obvious threat if fully cranked up. #2 STERLING SILVER is a state bred going against open foes for the first time, but that shouldn't mean too much here, especially the way this one moved up about 15% in her first try against winners -- something never easy to do. 


Race  10


2.Bold Journey


Featured race of the day is upon us, and although we're not too sure there'll be any Derby runners here, at least it's a competitive affair.  #1 RUNNINSONOFAGUN has already proven to be a successful claim by Toscano, as this one has earned back ( less expenses ) 75% of the purchase price from two back. Davis eschews this one for the bigger barn with the gaudier recent number, but keep in mind that said figaro was earned when getting Lasix for the first time. This gelding is a poyfect two for two in Ozone Park ( with both of those coming from an "inside-ish" type post, and not only have four returnees from the most recent come back to amass a 4:1-0-1-2 mark ( from three separate races ) with an average Beyer improvement of 4.6 pts., but the prior start has three comebackers ( aside from this one ) go 3:1-0-1 next out ( from two different heats. That's a cumulative 7:2-0-2-2 ledger against fellow competitors of late, which tells us that this one has plenty of upside. Yeah, we wish there was a better jockey aboard, but you'd have to think that at the very least, he'd be trying hard for all the minor spoils. There's a small DRF Formulator stat in play also, as 10% shedrow is 2 for 3 with those who won 24-50 days back NOT getting Lasix ( $14 & $5 ). We got the job done here with Weyburn last year in our 16,000th race ( at 46-1 no less ), and feel this race may also be ripe for a price. #8 BOLD JOURNEY is a NYB who's improved w/ each passing start ( having never been worse the 2nd ) and appears to be another solid ( private ) purchase. #10 ROCKEFELLER is shipped in by Bob Baffert's Baked Beans & is a sensible inclusion for the trainer who's STILL fighting the suspension/disqualification for having cheated in the Kentucky Derby. 


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 86-345  ( $775.80 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-35 ( 28.7% )   Favorites   Win %:   126-345  ( 36.5% ) ( As of Saturday morning ) 

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout