SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/6
  
  

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Decent day for us here yesterday, with a pair of breakeven winners, five Rolling Doubles of $42, $14, $18, $75 & $108, and three Rolling Pick Threes of $54, $429 & $161. Our 10:2-1-3 mark on the card puts us at 355:88-58-58 on the stand ( $710 Bet/$794.90 Returned ), and are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least March 19th.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/6

 

Race  1

1.That Is Key

2.Magnetique

3.My Girl lexi

We'll blast off in the opener with the olllll' 3-2-1 tri...  #3 THAT IS KEY was positively awful in teh recent allowance effort, and is promptly put up for sale this afternoon, which is of some relevance, as this one has won two of her last four with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. From a DRF Formulator aspect this 11% outfit triples that batting average ( 4-12 ) with locally based mid level dirt stock off breaks of 14-50 days ( 25-1 or less ) ridden by this jock, & the payoffs for that survey were $14, $19, $17 & $10. #2 MAGNETIQUE is another entering off a poor performance, but her finest work has come on this oval, and is showing a convincing score from two back. #1 MY GIRL LEXI as bad as any for 3rd. 

 

Race  2

1.Scott Alaia

2.Cross Island

3.Linny Kate

#1 SCOTT ALAIA nearly went all the way in an identical spot back on 2/12, and there's a nice trainer stat in play with this one, as this outfit is a near poyfect 4 for 5 with second off the snag dirt stock who hit the board at this level less than three dozen days back ( $5, $6, $29 & $3 ). #6 CROSS ISLAND ( a parkway that runs alongside Belmont ) returned off more than a calendar hibernation to rally resolutely in missing the lion's share by less than a length right here 23 days back, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Live shot, despite the matory hike in class. #5 LINNY KATE has partaken in the superfecta in four of five dirt engagements, and should be in the thick of things late.  NOTE: AS OF 12:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Ava K's Boy

2.Kenner

3.Impressionist

#1 AVA K'S BOY has hit the board in all three starts to date -- including a well clear runner up in this race when breaking from the pine, and will be brought over by a bossman who's 3-10 with Aqueduct dirt equines who were 1-2-3 < 46 days back ( 10-1 or beneath ), with mutuels of $6, $8 & $7. #5 KENNER gets the miracle drug today after placing against weaker @ Philadelphia Park last month, and just may last a little bit longer this time. #3 IMPRESSIONIST hasn't faced the starter since going all the way on the first day of the year, but is another now getting "The Big L", and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up.  NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Red Pepper Grill

2.Appreciate

3.Bella Domenica

#3 RED PEPPER GRILL burned some bread when merely splitting the field against this type 23 days in the rear, but there's no further drop, so perhaps Rudy has worked out a kink or two; Meek choice. #4 APPRECIATE put forth an okay showing directly behind a next out winner last out and sheds 48 ounces off that effort in getting the hot bug. #5 BELLA DOMENICA was last in action up at the Spa, but has been a part of the super in both heats off an absence. Note that Cardenas returns off a long absence, and agents usually try to secure a live mount or two for jocks coming back off an injury, to get them started on the right foot.  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Prioritize

2.Regal Quality

3.Microscope 

#7 PRIORITIZE has really hit the skids since putting forth a couple of decent Grade One efforts in 2020, and that happens a lot, as sometimes the starch can be taken out of the collar when tangling with the best. That being said, he has never been seen at these depths, and being R.R. saw fit to plunk down a lot of bread for this one two back, we'll give him one more shot. #6 REGAL QUALITY was a gamely winner at the level just `below this one on the 11th of February, and although that was going 1X, this one has proven himself making that second left in the past, and we're expecting another goodie. #8 MICROSCOPE is one for two when going one turn to two, and has a hood added here. 

 

Race  6 

1.Yankee Division 

2.Tiergan 

3.Daddy Knows

#3 YANKEE DIVISION has made every pole a winning one in this exact spot over his last duet, and we see no reason the hat trick can't be achieved once again. #9 TIERGAN looks to be the only one with a chance of upsetting the apple cart based on the drop and a reunion with a pilot he's had decent success with. #6 DADDY KNOWS is a fairly consistent sort who got the job done at this level 13 days in the rear, but we'll leave beneath as the BSF was a touch lower than our top choice. 

 

Race  7

1.Battle Bling

2.Truth Huts

3.Maiden Beauty

We don't have the best read on the day's feature, so use some prudence.  #3 BATTLE BLING looks to have been a sharp claim, as the 4YO earned back a substantial chunk of the $62,500 purchase price when winning the Ladies Handicap seven weeks back, and five returnees from that heat have amassed a cumulative 5:2-1-1-1 mark in their followup deals. #5 TRUTH HUTS has done well at this trip, over this strip, off the pine, beneath today's pilot, and when loading last. Would be no surprise. #4 MAIDEN BEAUTY has yet to miss a super off a respite, and gee whiz, that 16:7-3-1 line at the dist. sure is sexy, ain't it ?  NOTE: AS OF 5:37 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  8 

1.Quiet Type

2.U Should B Dancing

3.Lollgag

#6 QUIET TYPE has changed addresses since last in action, and new clan is two of four when getting a horsie and spotting them in a mdclm. dirt event off L/O's of 51-401 days ( < 40-1 ), with payouts of $9 & $8. Any port in the storm with this one. #8 U SHOULD B DANCING has some nice PP's, but is beginning to look like "that" kind of a maiden, so we'll relegate to the unders. #5 LOLLYGAG hasn't made an afternoon trek to the frontside since polishing off last year's Valentine's carrots, but takes the biggest drop in the biz and needn't be much to best some of her fellow lollygaggers. 


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 88-355  ( $794.90 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-35 ( 28.7% )   Favorites Win %: 129-355  ( 36.3% ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 1-6       ( $6.60 )      Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6        ( 66.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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