SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/11
  
  

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Just two chalky winners on a day laden with the stuff back on Sunday, but nonetheless, we are 363:90-58-59 on the stand ( $726 Bet/$803.60 Returned ), and are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least March 19th. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/11

 

Race  1

1.Winning Drive

2.Fleet Warrior

3.Binkster

#1 WINNING DRIVE showed a decent "Z" pattern in the most recent, when losing 5 3/4 lengths from the quarter to the half, before regaining nearly that entire amount from that point to the line in closing out the triple vs. similar type. Gelding has done his best work in Ozone Park, and ain't facing much today. #3 FLEET WARRIOR owns an okay ledger at today's distance of ground and is eligible to improve in today's 3rd off the layoff engagement. #4 BINKSTER hasn't hit the board in seven straight, but finds himself at his lowest level to date, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon. Could perk up. 

 

Race  2

1.Remembermom

2.Quickflash 

3.Royal Realm

#4 REMEMBERMOM was a convincing maiden breaker right here 18 days back, and given the speed figure earned that day, seems properly spotted in his first try against victors. Trevor heads elsewhere, but his brother in law is a more than capable substitute. #5 QUICKFLASH is a nibbler by rote ( 19:1-6-3 ), but is better suited on a fast track than one with moisture in it, and we wouldn't be shocked to see this one in the thick of things late. #6 ROYAL REALM has partaken in the triple all three times he's been made available for purchase on the sand ( while also digging today's dx. ), and has done his best with today's jock in the stirrups. 

 

Race  3

1.Devious Banker 

2.Sir William

3.Uncle Water Flow

#8 DEVIOUS BANKER got smacked around a bit at the onset when having Lasix administered for the first time, but still managed to best half the field that day, and could be a different animal today in shedding a whopping seven pounds if able to secure a tidier sojourn. #7 SIR WILLIAM ( like most of Jimmy Ferrato's babies ) has slowly but surely improved as he's gone along, and that includes a 53 & a 56 in both starts on  a track labeled as FST. Looks to be a majah playah in this spot. #10 UNCLE WATER FLOW hasn't seen the scene since New Year's Eve, but totes along a bullet breeze for today's big time drop, and could jazz things up beneath. 

 

Race  4 

1.Girl of Toscanova

2.Freddymo Factor

3.Bella Principessa 

Don't really have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.   #7 GIRL OF TOSCANOVA was a snappy winner versus conditional platers 27 days in the rear, and has been a part of the super in both "2nd off the L./O" deals, and seems to really dig going a flat mile. #2 FREDDYMO FACTOR takes the obligatory hike in class after being snagged for a quarter ( and a score ) on the 12th of February, and as this one is 2 fer 4 at The Big A -- compared to being oh-fer-13 otherwise -- we'll chunk in the hopper. #3 BELLA PRINCIPESSA is 13:3-2-3-3 lifetime, and what the hell's wrong with that ? Finest results have come with Franco aboard. 

 

Race  5

1.Hey Mama

2.Vivazano

3.Laochi

#2 HEY MAMA was a crisp and well clear runner up at first asking for a barn that is 0-20 with firsters the last five years, BUT is on a nice 6:3-1-1-1 run w/ 2TS'ers ( $17, $27 & $18 ) -- after an 0-14 run. Despite the lowish #, we feel the race goes through her. #3 VIVAZANO is a lightly raced 5YO who's been on the fringes this far in her working life, but this 100K purchase has earned 70% of that back to date, and we like that she's still claim protected. #1 LAOCHI has yet to finish out of the top four ( including a stakes event ), and is second time eye cups today. Bullet move on 2/22 is duly noted. 

 

Race  6 

1.Patty O'Marc

2.Far Away Look

3.Coach Bahe

We're gonna go a bit out on a limb here with the #8 PATTY O'MARC. After winning in a visually impressive manner last April, this bay boy has hit the skids in his last pair -- being eased in both. There's another drop in class here for this second off the shelf engagement, and blinkers are now a part of the makeup -- for a shotcaller who's 1 for 3 when adding 'em ( $17 ). Bombs away ! #7 FAR AWAY LOOK smacked into the starting apparatus before splitting the field in an identical spot at 33-1 two fortnights back, and gee whiz, just look at those comment lines..."Hit gate"..."Bobbled after break"..."Bumped after start"..."Bumped hard break"..."Checked after start"..."Steady, alter"..."Brush Gate"..."Attacked by a grizzly bear"... Actually, we made that last one up, but you get the drift. #5 COACH BAHE rounds out the top three ( which is another way of saying "It's getting late, and we're running out of creative juices.". 

 

Race  7

1.Enter Sandwoman

2.Raffinity

3.Shalimar Gardens

#5 ENTER SANDWOMAN was an honest runnerup behind a daylight winner in this race on 2/13, and aside from owning a crisp 3:1-2-0 ledger at this local, is backed by a solid DRF Formulator statistic as well. Over the last 1.826 days, barn is a nice three for six with Ozone Park based allowance dirt horsies who were 1-2-3 < 51 days ago, and the returns for that sampling were $10, $4 & $7. #7 RAFFINITY has been a popular item at the claim box, having changed addresses after three of her last four starts when eligible for such, and this grey gal gets an upgrade to the leading rider on the grounds after the recent barn switch. #1 SHALIMAR GARDENS immolated some baccala last out, but we'll give her a chance to make amends because she had improved with each start prior to the disappointment. 

 

Race  8 

1.Miss Flintshire

2.Pals Ally

3.Soaring Mist

#9 MISS FLINTSHIRE is a bit weak from a Beyer Speed Figure point of view, but hey, this ain't the strongest grouping in the world, and it's encouraging to see the showing after an elongated absence. Barn's runners get better over time, and we like that the old school connections eschew Lasix until absolutely needed. Wouldn't be flabbergasted to see a leap forward. #13 PALS ALLY owns some decent running lines, and is in a "First time Juice/Second time Hood" spot, while getting an advantageous slot. #10 SOARING MIST was in the rear with the gear in last month's overture, but we don't need much of an excuse to toss Jackie in the mix these days, as many of her mounts outrun their parimutal offering.  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

  

Aqueduct          ( Current ): 90-363  ( $803.60 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-35 ( 28.7% )   Favorites Win %: 135-363 ( 37.2% ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 1-6       ( $6.60 )      Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6        ( 66.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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