SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 3/5 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Handicap & two other Grade One's
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's Aqueduct full card selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

Profitable three bagger on the day for us yesterday, along with a successful Beatable Favorite, an Ice Cold $15 Quinella, and a $29 Exacta Reverse, as we're 345:86-57-55 on the stand ( $690 Bet/$775.80 Returned ), and guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least March 18th.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 3/5 - Santa Anita Handicap & two other Grade One's

 

Race 9 

1.Miss Bigly

2.Varda 

3.Moonlight d'Oro

#5 MISS BIGLY has proven to be an excellent claim, as after the $30,000 purchase, this one has amassed earnings of just about a half million clams since, and that includes a 2:1-0-1 mark when routing right here. The 8:5-1-2 ledger at today's distance of ground positively leaps off the page, and although she faces the sternest test of her career, we'll give her a shot. #1 VARDA hasn't been seen in a couple'a Christmas', but "Lidocaine Bob" got this one to win in her lone start off the bench, and could be a factor if sound. #2 MOONLIGHT D'ORO was last in action on National Hangover Day, but has yet to miss the money, & has proven to dig it here.  NOTE: AS OF 3:53 P.M. THURSDAY, DUE TO AN EARLY SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

  

      Race 10

1.Count Again

2.Flavius

3.Law Professor

#4 COUNT AGAIN got up in time to win a G3 right here last month, bringing his record at a mile to three for five, and there's a groovy DRF Formulator stat in play with this one. Over the last 60 month's this 18% shedrow is a near poyfect 5:4-0-1 with locally based graded turf stayers who won < 56 days back ridden by Prat, with a positive ROI in that regards as well. #10 FLAVIUS is 3:1-0-0-1 in second off the shelf turf routes and lost by only a length in this race last year. #6 LAW PROFESSOR has essentially improved w/ each passing start, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Pedigree says this one has ample room for improvement on the gramma. 

 

     Race 11

1.Warrant

2.Stilleto Boy

3.Express Train

You can clearly see that the #3 WARRANT is improving as he goes along, and that includes a win in his lone "2nd off the L/O" heat -- an affair that yielded four next out victors. Colt has never missed the $, and not only secures the best rider in America, but is backed by an excellent trainer stat as well. Barn is 6 of 9 with male graded dirt stayers who were 1-2-3 34-50 days in the rear at 6-1 or less ( no Lasix ), with payouts of $9, $3 x 2, $4 & $8 x 2. #10 STILLETO BOY ( who should be no worse than second, for all you place punters out there ) has an excellent collection of speed figaros while having hit the board in both Arcadian efforts. #6 EXPRESS TRAIN was a lively 5-1 runner up in this race last year, and as that was his sole "3rd off the pine" try on the sand, we'll chunk in. 

 
Aqueduct          ( Current ): 86-345  ( $775.80 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-35 ( 28.7% )   Favorites   Win %:   126-345  ( 36.5% ) ( As of Saturday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


  CoxLA2017