SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/12


Started out the week on a good note with a pair of profitable winners, courtesy of DRF Formulator. 

We're now 371:92-59-60 on the stand ( $742 Bet/$832.80 Returned ), and are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least March 24th. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #8 Merger of Equals  Race 7 - #5 Snicket

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/12


Race  1

1.Goodmorning Angel

2.Cupids Girl

3.With Bells On

We'll start out the festivities by blasting off with the 3-2-1 triple.  #3 GOODMORNING ANGEL was a daylight clear 3rd in a strung out field on the sixth of February, and today catches a fast track for the first time -- for which he's somewhat better bred than the goo. From a DRF Formulator P.O.V., "The As-Man" is 4 of 7 with locally based dirt dashers at this level who crashed the party 18-50 days back ( $6, $3, $4 & $17 ). #2 CUPIDS GIRL has a decent collection of figaros, and barn is 5:2-1-2 w/mdspwt. sand sprinters who were 1-2-3 less than a month ago while getting Lasix. #1 WITH BELLS ON rounds out the top three. 


Race  2



3.Noble Thought

#4 MAGNETRON was reclaimed by Potts last time out, and although this one is a nibblah by nature ( 44:3-12-8 ), we see that the barn is 2 fer 5 with freshly purchased runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 < 38 days back & are 10-1 or beneath, and there's a sub category of 2-2 with Dylan ( $14 & $12 ). #3 RUNABOUT is a hard knocker who's fared well in Ozone Park ( 9:2-2-2 ), and after being kept in jail when winning & being claimed on 2/5, is brought back at the same level today. #2 NOBLE THOUGHT has amassed a nice "declining" mark of 50:13-10-7 throughout his career, and barn is two for six with AQU based mid level dirt stock who hit the board 20-50 days back going short. 


Race  3


2.Great Workout

3.Mo Mischief

No first draft eliminations in this deal, so tread lightly.   #1 DOUBLEPOUR is one for two when loading first over a glib surface and totes the lightest impost of his career. Bug has proven to be adroit in working out tricky trips, so we'll hope for another one here. #3 GREAT WORKOUT is about a 12.2% better animal on a fast track than a wet one, so right off the bat, you can feel free to upgrade the recent BSF. Factor in the 2-5 mark here ( 0-4 otherwise ), and that's enough to chunk in in this spot. #2 MO MISCHIEF has gone down and up the Beyer ladder on the dirt with each passing start, so who knows what you're gonna get here. Best work has come at today's dx., so we'll incorporate. 


Race  4 

1.Darn That Song 

2.Royal Currency


These three & no more for all our rolling action.  #5 DARN THAT SONG has yet to miss a super and adds the hood while getting in with a feather. Should be no worse than 3rd for those of you who like to grind out a shoe profit. #6 ROYAL CURRENCY didn't dig the goo in the most recent, but closed out the exacts in both starts prior, and gets blinks for today's 2nd off the shelf affair. #7 CARBON hasn't been seen since turkey time, but had ascended the speed figure ladder with each dirt try, and gets the miracle drug in this spot.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 MERGER OF EQUALS


Race  5


2.My Boy Colton

3.Total Effort

#8 INFEASIBLE will be brought over to the races by a clan who's 8:3-2-1-1 with their Aqueduct based maiden claiming dirt equines who hit the board less that 26 days ago, and the payouts for that sampling were $4 x 2 & $12. #6 MY BOY COLTON has lost by a bunch in his last pair, but the hood is left on the backside this afternoon, and 8% shedrow is 2 for 10 with those fitting today's criteria who missed the money 1-25 days back & are 25-1 or undah ( $23 & $13 ). #3 TOTAL EFFORT put forth anything but when last facing the starter, but posted an adjusted 70.3 in his lone start on a track labeled FST ( against substantially tougher without blinks & front wraps which are now a part of the makeup. 


Race  6 



3.Amity Island

#4 KERIK ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) was a well beaten but nicely clear runner up in this race last month, and rates a slight edge once again in a race that's difficult to hug. #7 CHAYSENBRYN drops a touch off a nice showing, and as this one is substantially better over a glib surface, we're expecting a move forward for today's 3rd off the L/O affair. #6 AMITY ISLAND has beaten just one home in her last pair, but is back in for a tag now, and is 5:1-4-0 with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. 


Race  7

1.Towering Orbit

2.Bankers Daughter

3.Pretty Clever

#2 TOWERING ORBIT has lost ground in the lane in every start thus far, but has yet to miss a superfecta, and with a dearth of true speed signed on, we'll pin our hopes to an easy opening quarter & a wire job. #6 BANKERS DAUGHTER hasn't been loaded into the starting apparatus in nearly ten months, but completed the exacta the last time she returned off a break, and has done the same in 7 of 9 tries at today's distance of ground. #8 PRETTY CLEVER fell short by only a sliver directly in front of a next out winner in her sole start off the pine, and gets Jose "Looking everywhere but straight ahead" Lezcano in the irons.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 SNICKET fills the bill, as barn is 0-10 in all relevant categories.


Race  8 

1.Kept Waiting

2.Prodigy Doll 

3.Club Car

Truncated but competitive rendition of the Correction this year, and we'll give the most tepid of nods to #6 KEPT WAITING. Falcone charge shoots for the grand salami today, and you have to admire this one's versatility along the way, with wins on firm turf, soft turf, a wet track, breaking from the inside, breaking from the outside, and off the bench. Should sit a perfect trip. #4 PRODIGY DOLL makes her third start off a respite in this spot, and has two superfecta finishes from as many starts off that type of scenario. Gal lands in a softish spot and may regain some of that past form. #3 CLUB CAR always seems to give a good account of herself and has been a runner up in both starts off a break in the action. 


Race  9 

1.Raw Courage

2.Got the Gold


#11 RAW COURAGE flopped in the most recent, but takes the biggest drop in the game while getting the miracle drug for the first time. Looks to have the best shot of upsetting #4 GOT THE GOLD, as that one owns the gaudiest set of #'s in here, and comes in off a solid placing at this level a baker's dozen days ago. #3 HEYMACKIT'SJACK may have needed the last after being away for the length of a calendar, and is back in for a tag again. 


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 92-371  ( $832.80 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-35 ( 28.7% )   Favorites Win %: 136-371 ( 36.7% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 1-6       ( $6.60 )      Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6       ( 66.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout