SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/13
  
  

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Started out the week on a good note with a pair of profitable winners, courtesy of DRF Formulator. 

We're now 371:92-59-60 on the stand ( $742 Bet/$832.80 Returned ), and are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least March 26th.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #3 Boom Boom Kaboom


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/13

 

Race  1

1.Forestwood Lane

2.Laban M Mo

3.Mighty Meister

#2 FORESTWOOD LANE put forth a career best effort when having the hood added 20 days back, and while a bounce is always possible, there ain't much in here, so we'll make this one the meekest of selections in a lackluster opener.  #1 LABAN M MO trailed throughout when last seen in early February, and has since been transferred over to Carlito, who promptly drops this one down to his lowest level to date.  #3 MIGHTY MEISTER has yet to partake in the superfecta, but owns a decent collection of figaros, and is another who has never seen these depths.  NOTE: AS OF 6:57 FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  2

1.Englehart entry

2.My Girl Annie

3.Cover Photo

Both the #1 ADDILYN ( 6:1-2-3 at today's distance of ground ) and #1A UP SEVENTYFOUR ( 5:3-1-1 doing the same ) comprise decent factions from the Baby Englehart barn. Solid place wager for those inclined to do such. #3 MY GIRL ANNIE sure is a hard knocking mare who also prefers going 3/4's ( 20:5-5-3 ) and we'll toss in the mix despite the poor recent form. #5 COVER PHOTO has been a part of the triple in her last troika, and goes from a triple bug girl to the second leading rider here.  

 

Race  3

1.Badgerville

2.Juggler

3.Ready to March

#4 BADGERVILLE was a smart victor right outta the box for the Toddster two fortnights back, and although the Beyer came back a bot on the low side, the pedigree tells us there's some room for improvement in a race where they pretty much all have a shot. #5 JUGGLER made us look purdy smart when gamely scoring at $22 ( yet another winner Jackie has provided for us ) and is logical in his first try against winners. #1 READY TO MARCH hasn't been seen since mid December, but owns a boatload of speed, and has received the unkindest cut of all since last facing the starter. Well traveled runner starts at his 6th different locale in as many forays & gets in light. 

 

Race  4 

1.Street Culture

2.Tamburro's Sox

3.Data Deal

#2 STREET CULTURE popped & stopped when returning off a year+ hibernation, and like so many Rice runners this meet, drops in class today. Slight edge. #9 TAMBURRO'S SOX has been a part of the superfecta in six of his seven on the brown stuff, and draws ideally. #4 DATA DEAL has been beset by some layoff lines in his abbreviated career, but the pre layoff pilot returns, which is something we always dig. Nice work on Monday for today's comebacker. 

 

Race  5

1.Funny Joke

2.Nature Boy 

3.Lord Licorice

#6 FUNNY JOKE begins his working life this afternoon, and although the worktab leaves a lot to be desired, we're assuaged by the 364 Tomlinson for today's dx., as well as the fact that this one went for more than 7 times the stud fee at Keeneland a year and a half ago. This one's a half to several multiple winners, and lands in a fairly sot spot for the debut. #2 NATURE BOY is another one starting things out in this spot, and although the breeding is a mite light, we wouldn't be surprised to see this one spice things up a bit beneath. #4 LORD LICORICE completes our triad of firsters in the opener to the late Pick 5, based on teh 380 Tommy & being a 4YO going up against some younger competitors. 

 

Race  6 

1.Best Idea

2.G Munning

3.Agility

#1 BEST IDEA was bet like a good thing when going coast to coast like butter and toast right outta the box for T.P., and given the bloodlines for this one, we're seeing a repeat as being well within reach, with the lone possible challenger being the #3 G MUNNING. That Kimmel charge was a lively winner directly in front of a next out winner right here back in November, and after flopping in the slop next time out, had no palpable excuse in the Rego Park. Honest shot on the cutback. #4 AGILITY has gotten better w/each start & has the hood added for his first heat since the freshening. 

 

Race  7

1.Khali Magic

2.Epona's Dream

3.Wasp

#7 KHALI MAGIC has been in excellent form since mid October ( 4:2-1-1 ), and that includes a win over this oval, vs. what we would consider to be a similar allotment. Should sit a perfect trip from today's outside slot. #3 EPONA'S DREAM merely bested half the field at 5-2 on the 18th of February, but as this one has been a bit of an in and outer, we can see this one rebounding today. #5 WASP as good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  8 

1.Storm Shooter

2.Big Brown Shoes

3.Lookin for Trouble

#3 STORM SHOOTER has been pretty lousy since returning off a calendar's absence, but has lost his procreating abilities since last being loaded into the starting apparatus, and it's good to see Trevor taking the assignment -- as well as the recent bullet breeze on display. #4 BIG BROWN SHOES had the hood added in this race last month, and after putting forth a decent showing, gets some remediation in the weight dept., with a hot bug assigned. #7 LOOKIN FOR TROUBLE has "played the fade" in just about all his starts, but can grab a slice if able to set some easy splits. 

 

Race  9 

1.Vincent

2.Out of the Breech

3.Criostata B C

#6 VINCENT is a bit of a late bloomer, but was a snappy runner up in a near identical spot a 7-1, and given the paucity of similar speed figs shown by the others, we're seeing a wire job highly feasible in the week's finale. #8 OUT OF THE BREECH may be the only one with a chance to upset the above, based on the weight break for today's first "2nd off the L/O" deal on a glib surface. #9 CROSTATA B C was a mite green when being loaded in the overture, and as he's last to go in today ( while having the blinkers taken off ), could be a bit more relaxed and have some fun out there.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 BOOM BOOM KABOOM will likely be overbet off the wet track #, so we'll take a stand against.

  
Aqueduct          ( Current ): 92-371  ( $832.80 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-35 ( 28.7% )   Favorites Win %: 136-371 ( 36.7% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 1-6       ( $6.60 )      Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6       ( 66.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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