SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/18
  
  

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Profitable three bagger on Sunday ( $5, $9 & $10 ), along with a $21 Quinella, five exacta boxes ( $11, $9, $49, $32 & $22 ), three Rolling Pick Threes ( $71, $94 & $256 ), a Rolling Pick Four ( $652 ), a Rolling Pick Five ( $1,772 ) and another successful "Beatable Favorite".

We're now 380:95-61-61 on the stand ( $760 Bet/$855.70 Returned ), and are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least the 3rd race on closing Day ( 3/27 ). 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #1 Noble Journey


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/18

 

Race  1

1.Point Pleasant 

2.Khuluq

3.Culdee

#5 POINT PLEASANT didn't show a whole heck of a lot when beginning her working life down in Hallandale Beach last month, but in all fairness, she got smacked around a bit at the onset that day, and posted a bullet breeze at Payson Park since. Lands in a softish spot, and it's encouraging to see C-Sqaured eschew the cheaper pots down south for today's 80K purse. #6 KHULUQ has partaken in the superfecta in all three starts to date, and although she immolated some baccala when adding Lasix back in January, we're assuaged by the solid DRF Formulator stat in play. Over the last 1,826 days, barn has won with half of their locally based mdspwt, dirt stock ridden by Franco, who are getting the wonder drug & are 6-1 or less ( 51-85 days ). The winners came back $4 x 3, $7 & $9, and of course, we dig the draw. #3 CULDEE ( uncoupled barnmate with our top selection, who was likely entered to make the race "go" improved from her 1st start to the next, and can pick up a piece. 

 

Race  2

1.Mr. Pete

2.Steam Engine

3.Ragtime Blues

#4 MR. PETE has been a model of consistency over his last septet ( 7:2-2-3 ), and as he's been kept in jail since the Feb. 20th purchase, is hiked up the ladder this afternoon. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #5 STEAM ENGINE appears to be the only one with a chance of upsetting the apple cart today based on the daylight clear runner up versus tougher last time out, as well as a nice 19-1 showing the last time he was in a 3rd off the L/O spot. There was a voided claim last out, however, so take a peek in the paddock. #3 RAGTIME BLUES is 4 of 9 at this trip, while being oh-fer-9 at other distances of ground; that's reason enough to chunk in.  NOTE: AS OF 10:45 THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Emerald banker

2.Live in Five

3.Dare to Be Great 

#4 EMERALD BANKER doesn't have the best looking resume', but lightly raced 5YO outran her odds in a big way when completing the triple last out, and gets a jock upgrade off that effort. Mild choice in the cheapest race they run on the grounds. #3 LIVE IN FIVE was a snappy runner up in a first off the claim deal for Charlie 22 days in the rear, and as the bug lands on a lesser animal today, shedrow switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today. #6 DARE TO BE GREAT flopped in the slop last out, but has the wonder drug administered for the first time, and could rebound. 

 

Race  4 

1.Betsy Blue

2.Ruvies in Time

3.Awillaway

Couple'a nice decent trainer stats in play, so let's get right to 'em.  #6 BETSY BLUE will be brought over by a shotcaller who's three of nine with Aqueduct based allowance dirt equines who recently won ( & are ridden by today's jock ), & the payouts for those winners were $7, $11 & $8. #2 RUVIES IN TIME: Rudy Rod is a snazzy 4-7with those of this ilk who were 1-2-3 30-50 days back & are beneath the 9-1 watermark ( $13, $2, $8 & $16 ). #1 AWILLAWAY is two fer four at today's dx., and blew up the tote board ( $95 ) the last time she was outside of stakes company. 

 

Race  5

1.Kerik

2.Chaysenbryn

3.Amity Island

#1 KERIK was a well beaten but nicely clear runner up in this race last month, and rates a slight edge once again in a race that's difficult to hug. #3 CHAYSENBRYN drops a touch off a nice showing, and as this one is substantially better over a glib surface, we're expecting a move forward for today's 3rd off the L/O affair. #4 AMITY ISLAND has beaten just one home in her last pair, but is back in for a tag now; note the 5:1-4-0 with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. 

 

Race  6 

1.Majestic Tiger

2.Big Castle

3.El Mayor

#4 MAJESTIC TIGER was claimed for the 2nd straight time ( 16G ) when last in action, and after that decent showing, is now spotted for a quarter by a conditioner who's 5:2-1-2with freshly purchased mid level dirt dashers in Ozone Park off absences of less than 51 days ( 10-1 or beneath ). The mutuels were $12 & $14, and gelding has done okay here. #5 BIG CASTLE makes his first "3rd start off a true layoff" in this spot, and totes the lightest impost of his working life. #7 EL MAYOR rounds out the tri.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 NOBLE JOURNEY will likely be overbet off the wet track form, and we'll side against, given the poor efforts over a glib surface.

 

Race  7

1.Thinking It Over

2.Easy Play

3.Ribot's Valentine

#5 THINKING IT OVER was fairly flat in the 2nd off the shelf engagement, but gets "The Big L" for the first time no, and 15% barn is a whopping 7:6-0-1 when that happens to their dirt runners at 42 days or less, and there's a $5.41 ROI in that regards as well. #6 EASY PLAY burst through the maiden ranks when last facing the starter, & Noda is 3-8 with optional dirt animals who scored < two dozen days back, and just look at these prices -- $49, $4 & $13. #3 RIBOT'S VALENTINE ( uncoupled barnmate w/our top choice ) was sent to the shelf after the initial score & can be a factor if sound.  NOTE: AS OF 10:49, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Wicked Mad

2.Jake Rocks

3.Subsidize

Not a great read here, so tread lightly.  #4 WICKED MAD hasn't been over to the races in quite some time, but was last seen getting his Polaroid taken -- a race where he improved for the 3rd consecutive outing. Bay boy has since lost his procreating ability, and has a shot if sound. #7 JAKE ROCKS is a nibbler by rote, but owns three superfecta finishes from four "3rd off a hiatus" deals, and loses the eye cups this afternoon. #1 SUBSIDIZE found the line first in his only "third start off a respite" jammie, & also placed in his only start when loading first. 

 

Race  9 

1.Bankers Daughter

2.Pretty Clever

3.Cinderella's Cause

#7 BANKERS DAUGHTER hasn't been loaded into the starting apparatus in nearly ten months, but completed the exacta the last time she returned off a break, and has done the same in 7 of 9 tries at today's distance of ground. #2 PRETTY CLEVER fell short by only a sliver directly in front of a next out winner in her sole start off the pine, and gets Jose "Linda Blair" Lezcano in the irons. #3 CINDERELLA'S CAUSE won her only start at today's distance of ground & is re-acquainted with blinkers.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 SNICKET fills the bill, as barn is 0-10 in all relevant categories. 

 

Race  10

1.Raw Courage

2.He's Got It

3.Red D G P

#2 RAW COURAGE flopped in the most recent, but takes the biggest drop in the game while getting the miracle drug for the first time. Decent chance to rebound at what may still be a square number. #3 HE'S GOT IT is another taking the plunge in today's finale, and also gets in with a feather while catching a fast track for just the second time -- AND having blinkers added. #6 RED D G P is a firster for a barn not known with their prowess with such, but owns a couple of quick morning moves ( another think that's not normally in Jimmy Ferraro's repertoire ) and Carmouche is lured to hop on. Needn't be much to grab a sliver. 

  

Aqueduct          ( Current ): 95-380  ( $855.70 )   Beatable  Favorites: 10-36 ( 28.4% )   Favorites Win %: 140-380 ( 36.9% ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 1-6       ( $6.60 )      Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6       ( 66.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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