SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/19
  
  

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Decent day for us here yesterday with a pair of winners, five Rolling Doubles of $13, $51, $27, $12 & $46, four Rolling Pick Threes of $127, $78, $99 & $113, a $222 Rolling Pick Four, and a $797 Rolling Pick Five.

We're now 390:97-62-64 on the stand ( $780 Bet/$867.90 Returned ), and need just $6.10 to secure a flat bet profit for the meet.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/19

 

Race  1

1.Infeasible

2.My Boy Colton

3.Total Effort

#8 INFEASIBLE will be brought over to the races by a clan who's 8:3-2-1-1 with their Aqueduct based maiden claiming dirt equines who hit the board less than 26 days ago, and the payouts for that sampling were $4 x 2 & $12. #3 MY BOY COLTON has lost by a bunch in his last pair, but the hood is left on the backside this afternoon, and 8% shedrow is 2 for 10 with those fitting today's criteria who missed the money 1-25 days back & are 25-1 or undah ( $23 & $13 ). #9 TOTAL EFFORT put forth anything but such when last facing the starter, but posted an adjusted 70.3 in his lone start on a track labeled FST ( against substantially tougher without blinks & front wraps which are now a part of the makeup ). 

 

Race  2

1.Doublepour

2.Great Workout

3.Mo Mischief

No first draft eliminations in this deal, so tread lightly.   #6 DOUBLEPOUR is one for two when loading first over a glib surface and totes the lightest impost of his career. Bug has proven to be adroit in working out tricky trips, so we'll hope for another one here. #5 GREAT WORKOUT is about a 12.2% better animal on a fast track than a wet one, so right off the bat, you can feel free to upgrade the recent BSF. Factor in the 2-5 mark here ( 0-4 otherwise ), and that's enough to chunk in in this spot. #7 MO MISCHIEF has gone down and up the Beyer ladder on the dirt with each passing start, so who knows what you're gonna get here. Best work has come at today's dx., so we'll incorporate. 

 

Race  3

1.Magnetron

2.Summer Bourbon

3.Speeding Kid

#8 MAGNETRON was reclaimed by Potts last time out, and although this one is a nibblah by nature ( 44:3-12-8 ), we see that the barn is 2 fer 5 with freshly purchased runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 < 38 days back & are 10-1 or beneath. #1 SUMMER BOURBON was a nicely clear runner up directly in front of a next out winner at the level just below this 26 days in the rear, and you have to admire this one's "declining" mark at today's locale ( 25:7-4-2 ). Note that Davis has the call on our above selection in last week's cancelled card, but likely gave the call to Miceli before he committed to Potts. #2 SPEEDING KID has always been a bit of a fringe player, and we'll chunk in, as he totes the lightest weight of his working life. 

 

Race  4 

1.Forty Two Ace

2.Invest

3.Umbria

#1 FORTY TWO ACE all the way. #3 INVEST was dead game in blowing up the tote board against what we ( and not many others ) would consider to be a tougher allotment 23 days in the rear, and as this one has partaken in the exacta in nearly half ( "Hahhhf." ) of his 30 lifetime starts, we see little reason to exclude. #5 UMBRIA hasn't been seen since turkey time, but is an obvious factor if sound & fully cranked up, given the 5 for 5 ITM streak prior to the hiatus. 

 

Race  5

1.Run White Rabbit

2.Dear Faith

3.Hot Latte

SIXTEEN entered here, and we don't have ONE first draft elimination, so that tells you how we feel about this deal.  #6 RUN WHITE RABBIT is a tough name to say, but runner from the "miracle" Juan Vasquez barn comes in off a career best figaro, and aforementioned shotcaller is a snazzy 4 for 7 with locally based maiden claiming dirt stock at this level who missed the baccala 8-50 days back & are 19-1 or less ( $11, $10, $17 & $14 ). #14 DEAR FAITH begins his working life this afternoon, and although the worktab is uninspiring, we're digging the 393 Tommy as well as the fact he went for more than 17X the stud fee at auction. #1 HOT LATTE as bad as any for the show focaccia.  NOTE: AS OF 6:41 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 12:48, #'s 13 & 4 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD SELECTIONS.

 

Race  6 

1.Eminency

2.Tin Pan Alley

3.Crawford County

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #12 EMINENCY has run some extra ground in all three starts to date, and today isn't likely to be much different with the wide slot. That being said, it's hard to ignore the triad of BSF's, and with a hot bug assigned, we wouldn't be surprised to see a killer crossover employed. No worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit. #4 TIN PAN ALLEY hasn't seen the scene since Toga time, but both runners who surrounded this one in his placing both got the job done when next in action, and the wondah drug is now a part of the equation. #5 CRAWFORD COUNTY flopped in the bow, but got smacked around a bit at the onset & draws better today. 

 

Race  7

1.Tweaqued

2.That's Pretty Nice

3.Trinity Titoli

Another head scratcher on tap, but we'll give a slight edge to #10 TWEAQUED, as she's 2nd time Lasix, 1st time eye cups, and good guy Ribaudo has won with both of his Aqueduct dirt runners off breaks of 50 days ( $7 & $12 ). #1 THAT'S PRETTY NICE was a visually impressive winner right here at first asking, & baby Englehart is 3-7 w/2TS'ers in a dirt dash who just got the diploma & are ridden by Worrie ( $6, $8 & $3 ). #9 TRINITY TITOLI ( Libbity Bibbity's half sister ) found wither the drop, L/O, new jock, or Lasix to her liking when procuring the sheepskin on 2/12, and Rudy Rod is three of eight with AQU based opt. dirt stock who got their first win 20-50 days back ( while getting Lasix ), with payoffs of $16, $29 & $5.  NOTE: AS OF 12:44, #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Seven Lilies

2.Scocciatore

3.Bustin Timberlake

#1 SEVEN LILIES is a gem of consistency ( 48:8-8-8 ), and that includes a 6 of 7 superfecta mark when loading first. Sensible, if not unspectacular selection. #7 SCOCCIATORE closed out the tri the only time she was in a 3rd off the pine scenario, and three of his four tallies have come beneath today's jock. #2 BUSTIN TIMBERLAKE was photogenic in his only "2nd off the shelf" jammie, and has done decent work both at this trip and over this strip.  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 8-3-9.

 

Race  9 

1.Lady Scarlet

2.Exaalthess

3.Monshun

#6 LADY SCARLET has won two of her last three, and from an itty bitty sampling, Maker is 4:2-1-1 with Ozone Park based sand sprinters who won < three fortnights back ( $7 & $8 ). Meek selection in a weak Cicada. #3 EXAALTRESS lost the hood, gained the juice, and picked up the first win on the 28th of January, and while a bounce is always possible when a runner has a big effort after some changes, there ain't no world beaters signed on, and the pedigree tells us this one is likely bred for better things. #5 MONSHUN went coast to coast like butter and toast in the August overture, and makes all kinds of sense if ready for the return. 

 

Race  10

1.Mrs. Banks

2.Phenomenal Woman 

3.Eudaimonia

#1 MRS. BANKS was overmatched in the debut, marooned in the followup, showed improved zip 3rd time out, and will be brought to the races by 7% Jimmy Ferraro, who more than quadruples that rate with Aqu. based female mdclm. dirt equines who were off the board less than 50 days back ( while getting Lasix ). He's 4-12 in that regards, with healthy returns of $10, $8, $14 & $39, and losing nine pounds in the saddle can't hurt as well. #8 PHENOMENAL WOMAN is backed by a solid Formulator stat which has this clan at a crisp 4 for 6 with dirt stock right here at today's level, off absences of 50 days or lower ( getting Lasix ) who are 19-1 or undah ( $14, $11, $10 & $7 ). #3 EUDAIMONIA nearly went all the way last out, and Schosberg ( 10% on the norm ) is a lively 16:6-4-0-3 with female dirt stock in this zip code who were 1-2-3 6 to 50 days past that are 9-1 or less ( getting the "Big L" ), w/a $2.53 ROI.  

  

Aqueduct          ( Current ): 97-390  ( $855.70 )   Beatable  Favorites: 11-38 ( 29% )      Favorites Win %: 145-390 ( 37.2% )( As of Saturday morning ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 1-6       ( $6.60 )      Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6       ( 66.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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