SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/20
  
  

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"THAT'S A BINGO !!"

With our winner in the 3rd yesterday, we are now GUARANTEED a flat bet profit for the meet for the 13th time, and did such with nearly five full days left on the stand -- an all time high !!

Additionally, we had an $880 Triple Box, three Exacta Boxes of $331, $83 & $15, a $165 Quinella Box, a $136 Rolling Double, and two winners of $8 & $14. 

We're now 400:99-65-64 on the stand ( $800 Bet/$890.20 Returned ), and it's all gravy from here on out -- GRAVY !!

Thanks to all for your support !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/20

 

Race  1

1.Higher Quality

2.Rational Choice

3.Dreampoint

We're seeing today's opener as easy as 1-2-3... ( Not really, but ain't we clever? ).  #1 HIGHER QUALITY hasn't been seen in a couple of Saint Patrick's Days, but is showing a couple'a nice gate moves for today's comebacker, and has been gelded since last facing the starter. There's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Brown is 12:7-0-2 w/2TS'ers on the dirt at this level, getting Lasix off breaks of 52-348 days ( 15-1 or undahm, at The Big A ). There's a positive ROI with that sampling, and we like that there's no scary drop yet. #2 RATIONAL CHOICE uncoupled barnmate with the above is another who's been bitten by the layoff bug at times, but owns some decent running lines, and aforementioned shotcaller has a 12:5-2-1 boxscore with those of this ilk who crashed the party 34-50 days back & are getting the wonder drug. #3 DREAMPOINT has improved with each passing dirt start, and we'll chunk beneath.  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: DUE TO A GATE SCRATCH IN R1, #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Darn That Song

2.Royal Currency

3.Carbon

These three & no more for all our rolling action.  #1 DARN THAT SONG has yet to miss a super and adds the hood while getting in with a feather. Should be no worse than 3rd for those of you who like to grind out a shoe profit. #6 ROYAL CURRENCY didn't dig the goo in the most recent, but closed out the exacts in both starts prior, and gets blinks for today's 2nd off the shelf affair. #7 CARBON hasn't been seen since turkey time, but had ascended the speed figure ladder with each dirt try, and gets the miracle drug in this spot. 

 

Race  3

1.Truebelieve

2.Irish Giant

3.Macho Boy

We don't really have the best of reads on this deal, so tread lightly. #3 TRUEBELIEVE was a well beaten but decently clear runner up when returning off an elongated absence in a similar spot last month, and while this one figures, it would behoove you to take a gander in the paddock with those two voided claims before the hibernation staring atcha. #7 IRISH GIANT may perk up with the blinker addition, and draws well. #4 MACHO BOY as good as any for the show baccala in this uninspiring affair.

 

Race  4 

1.Tough Tickets

2.Quickflash

3.Jerusalem Gates 

Another heat that's difficult to hug.  #3 TOUGH TICKETS is an interestingly monikered equine, as this one was seen in Tampa Bay the day before the Bucaneers won last year's Super bowl, and fittingly, this one got the job done. Unfortunately, his retirement was a bit longer than Brady's this year, but The Toddster knows how to have 'em prepped for a comeback, and $225,000 auction purchase can be all yours for 1/9th of that amount today. #6 QUICKFLASH has hit the board in 7 of 9 at today's dx., & finds himself at an all time low. #2 JERUSALEM GATES has missed the super but once in 10 career outings and deserves some "ahschpect". 

 

Race  5

1.Howe Street

2.Rhumjar

3.Sugar Gray Leonard

#5 HOWE STREET begins his working life this afternoon, and does such with a nice gate breeze on the docket, which always gets our attention. Sweet trainer statistic in play also, as Abreu ( 15% on the norm ) is a near poyfect 4 of 5 with local dirt firsters at this level going off at 15-1 or less, and look at the healthy mutuels ( $14, $10, $11 & $7 ). Recognize that this one is a full to four winners from as many foals to race, including Equal Pay -- who won by 10 down at Hallandale Beach a week & a half ago. #3 RHUMJAR positively immolated baccala when merely besting the chase ambulance down in Maryland a month ago, but is 2nd time Lasix today & deserves another shot, especially as this barn is 2 for 4 when getting a dirt horse that was OTB 8-50 days back who's 27-1 or < ( $12 & $5 ). #7 SUGAR GRAY LEONARD went for double the stud fee at auction, has a nice slot, and 4 of 5 available members of the immediate family tree won at first asking. Watch out, suckahs !  DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Check That Chip

2.Awesome Aaron

3.Downtown Connector

#2 CHECK THAT CHIP showed appreciable improvement from the first spin to the next, has worked well since, and barn ( from an itty bitty sampling ) is two of two with sand sprinters who finished ITM 40 to 50 days back ( $4 & $11 ). #7 AWESOME AARON is another who got better 2nd time out ( while extremely clear of the third place horse ), and the shedrow is 3-7 with maiden special weight dirt dashers that made the tri less than 48 days in the rear while getting Lasix ( as well as this jock ). The payoffs were $8 & $5 x 2, and of course, we dig the slot. #1 DOWNTOWN CONNECTOR cuts back while having the hood slapped on.  NOTE: AS OF 11:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Little Menace

2.My First Grammy

3.Lil Commissioner

#7 LITTLE MENACE is dropped below the level claimed from two back, and Atras has won with both of his 2nd off the snag mid level dirt stock who hit the board 40-50 days in the past; mild choice. #3 MY FIRST GRAMMY is on a 7:2-4-0-1 run with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and has been in the money in two of three when on the cutback. 3 for 12 record at today's distance of ground -- in comparison to being oh-fer-14 otherwise aids the cause. #4 LIL COMMISSIONER was photogenic in his sole start off the pine on a glib surface & it's hard to argue with the 32:9-1-6 career mark.   NOTE: AS OF 11:20, DUE TO TWO KEY LATE SCRATCHES, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-3-1.

 

Race  8 

1.Full Moon Fever

2.Good Culture

3.Royal Number

We'll blast off with the olllll' 3....2....1.... triple in today's 8th.  #3 FULL MOON FEVER was on the "Mark" when going all the way in his first start off the Hennig claim on Valentine's Day Eve, and although he steps up here, is facing no worldbeaters & is eligible to repeat. #2 GOOD CULTURE has closed out the exacta in his last triumvirate, and who are we to rock that boat? #1 ROYAL NUMBER had a crushing nose beat in his most recent, and although he's a bit of an in and outer, we'll chunk in. 

 

Race  9 

1.My Boy Tate

2.Chestertown

3.Water's Edge

#3 MY BOY TATE ( trained, owned, and bred by Michelle Nevin, as Rick Dutrow trained the dam ) has had very few hiccups in his working life ( as the 31:11-9-2 mark belies ) and looks real strong in the day's feature. #6 CHESTERTOWN easily bested what we consider to be a similar type allotment back on February, and positively adores it here ( 8:4-0-3 ). Could give the above a run for his money. #2 WATER'S EDGE has yet to be out of the exacta, but steps up here, so we'll leave beneath.

 

Race  10

1.Katie's Courage

2.R Working Girl

3.Infringement

#1 KATIE'S COURAGE hasn't been in action since turkey time, but is 3:1-0-1 off a L/O, finished third in her lone start when breaking from the 1-2 posts, and the man in charge is 2 for 6 with runners fitting this criteria off breaks of 51-185 days @ 24-1 or beneath ( $17 x 2 ). #2 R WORKING GIRL appears to be the clear speed of this deal, and both of her tallies have come in Ozone Park. #4 INFRINGEMENT ( "Infringement...Insist...I don't like these words as much as 'Please...Thank you.'" ) outran her 18-1 offering when a runner up at the level just below this one a fortnight back, and gets a jock upgrade off that effort.


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 99-400  ( $890.20 )   Beatable  Favorites: 11-38 ( 29% )      Favorites Win %: 148-400 ( 37% )( As of Sunday morning ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 1-6       ( $6.60 )      Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6       ( 66.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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