SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/25 - Closing Week


Just a couple of chalky winners back on Sunday, but we had a handful of profitable Rolling Doubles, Three Rolling Pick Threes, and a nice Triple Box to boot. 

We're now 410:101-68-65 on the stand ( $820 Bet/$897.90 Returned ), while being guaranteed a flat bet profit for the meet.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/25 - Closing Week


Race  1

1.Draw Off

2.Crosstown Girl

3.Soaring Mist

#4 DRAW OFF hasn't been seen in more than ten flips of the calendar, and aside from taking the biggest drop in the land, we're assuaged by the fact that Weaver has won with both of his maiden claiming second time starters getting the wonder drug for the 1st time ( 51+ days ). Pre layoff pilot returns, which we always dig. #3 CROSSTOWN GIRL gets a positive trainer switch since the most recent and placed in her lone start at this level. #7 SOARING MIST displayed zilch in the bow, but Jackie hops on, and her runners have been outrunning their odds more often than not at the stand.  NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Chris and Dave

2.American Rule

3.Crypto Cash

#1 CHRIS AND DAVE bested only one in the comebacker, but is 3:1-1-0 off the pine, and like sooooooo many Rice entrants this winner -- is now dropping in class. That last part is of some relevance, as aforementioned trainer ( who is still --- yes, STILL -- waiting on the resolution of her license revocation ) is three of four when doing such to her 2nd off the shelf sand sprinters ( 36-50 days ), w/returns of $2, $3 & $5. #5 AMERICAN RULE has never seen these depths & picks up a hot pilot. #6 CRYPTO CASH is halved in price after losing by a honker in the most recent; logical. 


Race  3

1.Fancy Feline

2.Gentle Annie 

3.Mia Bea Star

#6 FANCY FELINE can be somewhat forgiven of the most recent, as she was a'stumblin & a'bumblin at the onset, and as gal had won two straight just prior to that ( improving her fast track figaro ledger to 19-50-70 ) figures right off the bat. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Bond has the Golden Gun with his locally based dirt runners at this level going off at 8-1 or less ridden by Trevor ( < 51 days ). The layouts for that 4 for 5 survey were $6, $16, $12 & $9, and of course, we like the draw. #3 GENTLE ANNIE appears to be the only won with a chance of upsetting the apple cart, based on being a daylight clear runner up vs. what we would consider to be a somewhat similar allotment 56 days back. #1 MIA BEA STAR is 6:1-3-1-1 when breaking from the innermost two slots and can land a share. 


Race  4 

1.Dorothy's the Boss

2.Glittering Prize

3.Quiet Type

Seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3...   #1 DOROTHY'S THE BOSS was an honest runner up in a near identical spot 19 days in the rear, and did the same the only time when loading 1st. From a trainer stat perspective, Kimmel is 4-9 with Aqueduct based maiden claiming dirt animals getting "The Big L" at this level ( 37 days or undah ), with mutuels of $21, $8, $4 & $5. #2 GLITTERING PRIZE is 2nd time blinks today & could spice things up a touch. #3 QUIET TYPE closed decently in the return engagement and may improve second time off the hiatus. 


Race  5

1.Big Bean Christine


3.One Track Mine

#3 BIG BEAN CHRISTINE apparently appreciated the eye cups last time out, as she completed the exacta at a robust 19-1, and 8% shedrow more than quintuples that batting average ( 7:3-2-1-1 ) with AQU based dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 1-50 days ago & are 19-1 or below ( getting Lasix ). The parimutel returns for those victors were $30, $5 & $3, and we'll give this one a slight nod. #9 COSTANTI displayed precipitous improvement from the first start to the followup, and 14% clan is 5 fer 14 with runners of this ilk getting juice who were 1-2-3 less than 51 days in the past ( $10, $3 x 2, $8 & $4. #8 ONE TRACK MINE is 2nd time off the break, with blinkers, and getting the miracle drug; needn't improve by much to get a piece. 


Race  6 



3.A Colt Named Susie

#6 SCOTTY ( our play of this profitable meet three starts back ) is about 8.2% better on a glib track than one with moisture in it, so right off the bat, you can feel free to upgrade the most recent accordingly. Another good statistic behind another 8% bossman here, as this barn is a tight 3 of 5 with 2TC mid level dirt equines in Ozone Park who missed the baccala less than 51 days back ( $10 x 2 & $8. #5 UNO is a $255,000 purchase who won by a pole when put up for a mere 16G last month, & The Toddster ( from a small sampling ) is two for four with those fitting this criteria off L/O's of 18-50 days ( $3 & $13 ). #1 A COLT NAMED SUSIE as bad as any for the show bread. 


Race  7

1.My Roxy Girl

2.Beautiful Karen

3.Our Sweet Girl

#3 MY ROXY GIRL is one of our favorite horses of all time, as we originally fell in love with her ( literal ) nose to the ground running style, and she has since become the best valued NYB female of all time. Bought for just $1,700, she can go over the $724,000 make with a score today, and it's quite feasible for a clan who's 3 for 7 with Queens based optional dirt entries who missed the $ 38 to 50 days ago ( $6, $9 & $7 ). Career 56:11-14-11-7 mark duly noted. #1 BEAUTIFUL KAREN ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) has done her best work at this trip & would be no surprise. #5 OUR SWEET GIRL has won 4 of 6 and that's reason enough to include. 


Race  8 


2.Too Boss

3.Mo Gotcha

#3 VINDICTIVE ( "He's as vindictive as hell, Henry. Kills for spite." ) was dong some nice work before being sent to the sidelines around Turkey Time, and T.P. rolls right along with his optional male dirt stayers getting Lasix & blinkers off breaks of 51-191 days ( 9-1 or < ). He's 9 fer 22 w/that type, and owns a healthy R.O.I. as well. #4 TOO BOSS ( uncoupled barnmate with the above ) goes 2X over a fast track for the first time and may appreciate such. #1 MO GOTCHA has yet to miss a super in six tries with the hood, and is reacquainted with such today. 


Race  9 


2.Good Skate

3.Heads or Tails

#5 BRACIOLE scored by a mile right outta the box over this oval on 2/25, and without much proven speed signed on, we'll pin our hopes to a repeat once again. #7 GOOD SKATE shoots for the hat trick here, and Rudy Rod owns a whopping 7-15 boxscore with opt. dirt sprinters in this zip code who tallied a win less than 50 days in the rear, and there's a $3.50+ return on investment in that area also. #8 HEADS OR TAILS sheds weight off the win, and that's something we always dig.  NOTE: AS OF 11:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Aqueduct          ( Current ): 101-410 ( $897.90 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-38 ( 29% )      Favorites Win %: 152-410 ( 37,1% )( As of Friday morning ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 1-6       ( $6.60 )     Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6       ( 66.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout