SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Aqueduct Selections & Analysis - 3/26 - Our 17,017th Race !!!
  
  

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Somehow, we let our 17,000th race here pass us by last week ( must be working too hard ! ), but we wanted to thank ALL our loyal readers at Saratoga Bets, Batavia Bets, Capital OTB, and Yonkers Raceway for all your support through the years. Let's win today's opener, and will someone please remind us when 17,500 comes up !! ( That number actually looks better ! ) 

Just a reminder, that for today's selections & analysis for the Dubai World Cup, go back one page.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #3 Bustin Bay


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Aqueduct - 3/26

 

Race  1

1.It's Cold in Dehere

2.Easy to Bless

3.My Girl Lexi

These three and no more for all our rolling action to start out the day.  #2 IT'S COLD IN DEHERE has been a model of consistency throughout her working life, and comes in today backed by s tidy but tight DRF Formulator stat. Over the last five years, this 20% barn triples that normative batting average with locally based "Starter Types" ( which is what we consider all of today's entrants ) who crashed the fiesta 10-50 days back ( @ 9-2 or less ) & are ridden by today's jock. They're 5:3-1-0 w/that type, with returns of $11, $3, $8 & $9. #4 EASY TO BLESS has done some nice work since being claimed by Jimmy Ferraro last July, and digs this strip while picking up a hard trying jock. #3 MY GIRL LEXI ( uncoupled barnmate with 'Bless ) totes the lightest impost of her career and has been moved to a better barn since last seen. May spice things up. 

 

Race  2

1.Witch Hunter

2.Indian Bella

3.Sniff

#4 WITCH HUNTER lost by a neck in her sole "second off the shelf" deal, and Baker is the man with Queens runners of this ilk who got their photos taken 8-50 days back & are 12-1 or less, as he's three of six in that department ( $15, $4 & $7 ). #3 INDIAN BELLA was a game victress right here on 3/6, and is 3:1-0-1-1 in all her "true" 2nd off the shelf engagements. Could be a threat once again. #5 SNIFF is 10 of 25 over a glib surface and what the hell's wrong with that? 

 

Race  3

1.Dark Money

2.Smile Bryan

3.Belle Tapisserie 

#1 DARK MONEY has been claimed in 7 of his last 8 when eligible for such, and owns a sensational 20:9-4-2 ledger at today's distance of ground. Down the lane. #3 SMILE BRYAN hasn't been in action since December, but fires well fresh ( 5:1-1-2 ), and goes sans eye cups for the first time in three years & three months ( 2 for 3 ITM rate in that regards ). #2 BELLE TAPISSERIE is another popular item at the claim box, and boy oh boy does this one know where the line is in Ozone Park ( 18:8-0-1 ); we're diggin' the 6:3-0-1 boxscore in 3rd off the hiatus affairs as well. 

 

Race  4 

1.Bee Bit

2.Honey Money

3.Daria's Angel 

#5 BEE BIT has had to leave a forwarding address after 7 of her last 9, and Baby Englehart is four of nine with freshly purchased dirt stock at this locale who were 1-2-3 6 to 45 days in the rear ( $8 x 3 & $6 ). We like this one's ability to send or rate a bit & will give her a slight edge. #7 HONEY MONEY has partaken in the superfecta in ten straight & 13 of fourteen; blinks now a part of the makeup. #4 DARIA'S ANGEL is another consistent sort, and that 15:7-4-1 local ledger positively leaps off the page ( or screen, as it were ). Leaving beneath because of Contessa's oh-fer-27 & 1 for 43 skeins on this circuit. 

 

Race  5

1.Tiergan

2.Doubly Blessed 

3.Hammerin Aamer

Another affair where our listed troika should suffice.   #5 TIERGAN was a snappy winner against optional foes over this oval 20 days in the rear, and while Franco eschews this one in favor of a slightly classier animal, we're digging the gaudy speed figure earned in the win, and this one has done quite well out of the state bred ranks. Should be no worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit. #4 DOUBLY BLESSED has completed the tri in both "3rd off the bench" heats, and we like the uncharacteristic quick morning moves on the docket since last in action. #9 HAMMERIN AAMER is still grinding out wins at the age of eight ( three of his last five ) and makes all kinds of sense once again. 

 

Race  6 

1.Brilliant Brooks

2.Aristocratic

3.Baby I'm Perfect

#9 BRILLIANT BROOKS is 3:1-1-1 when last to load, and new bossman Atras ( from an itty bitty sampling ) is two of four with first off the claim dirt equines at this level who got the job done 22-50 days ago & are 11-1 or undah ( $18 & $11 ). Should sit the perfect trip going six & half panels. #7 ARISTOCRATIC shoots for the truncated hat trick this afternoon, and it's quite doable, especially looking at the 11:5-0-4 line at The Big A. #8 BABY I'M PERFECT ( we can dig it ) can land a share.   

 

Race  7

1.Awesome Indra

2.Barista Vixen

3.Bustin Bay

#4 AWESOME INDRA ( claimed in nine of her last eleven ) goes all the way beneath Jose. #5 BARISTA VIXEN is a very steady sort who's yet to miss the money in this zip code and seems like a nice candidate for the lower rungs. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #3 BUSTIN BAY had no palpable excuse for the flop on February 6th, but given the way this one went 5:3-1-1 in her prior quintet over this oval, we have no qualms about giving her a chance to rebound. 

 

Race  8 

1.Air Attack 

2.Blewitt

3.Original Intent

We're seeing the #4 AIR ATTACK as having the best chance of upsetting our secondary selection in this year's Stud Muffin, based on the outfit's three for five mark with second off the snag dirt runners who hit the board 40-50 days ago ( 12-1 or below ), with those winners coming back $4, $5 & $3. #5 BLEWITT may not have turned an overall profit for his various connections throughout the years, but this 8YO "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy ! ) is in the best form of his career ( having won three of four ), and it's hard to fault those taking a highly favorable view of the monstrous 11:6-3-0 numbah right here. #1A ORIGINAL INTENT may jazz things up beneath. 

 

Race  9 

1.Zoomer

2.Answer In

3.Prince James

#2 ZOOMER ( like so many hard knocking runners today ) has changed barns quite a few times of late, and why not, as this often gives an excellent account of himself ( 33:10-5-2 ), and his affinity for this joint ain't too shabby either ( 4 of 7 ). Looks to be a deserving chalk in this spot, even without the solid trainer stat in which this barn is four fer eight with AQU based runners of this type who won -- and were claimed < 51 days in the past ( at 7-1 or less ), w/parimutuel payouts of $4, $6, $11 & $3. #3 ANSWER IN returned off a bit of a freshening to pick up 20% of the pot on the 19th of February, and did such despite getting smacked around a bit at the onset. Could improve with a tidier sojourn. #1 PRINCE JAMES finished up the triple in his sole start when breaking from the pine and can do the same here. 

 

Race  10

1.Magnetron

2.Binkster

3.Direct Order

#7 MAGNETRON will be strolled over to the races today by a bossman who's a poyfect three for three with those who won less than a fortnight ago. That's enough of a reason for us to slide upstairs in the finale. #1 BINKSTER has been somewhat camera shy over the last 2 1/2 years ( 1-20 ), but gets a hot bug assigned and owns some nice familiarity with the seagulls here. #4 DIRECT ORDER completes the "Babe Ruth" triple based on the nice Aqueduct record. 

 

Aqueduct          ( Current ): 102-419 ( $901.40 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-38 ( 29% )      Favorites Win %: 156-419 ( 37.3% )( As of Saturday morning ) 

Graded Stakes  ( Current ): 1-6        ( $6.60 )     Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )       Favorites  Win %:  4-6       ( 66.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-21 (All Final):3112-16022 ($26,872.10)  Beatable Favorites : 390-1427( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6040-16030 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -16.1%  against a 16.9% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3197-16590 ($27,691.30)   Beatable Favorites : 405-1495( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6203-16691 ( 37.2% ) +/-: -16.4%  against a 16.7% takeout


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