SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/6
  
  

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Big day for us here yesterday, as we had the following:

--Six winners of $3, $5, $6, $4 & $10 x 2

--Five Exacta Boxes of $17, $46, $25, $88 & $50

--Three Ice Cold Doubles of $9, $29 & $30 along with three Rolling Doubles of $37, $35 & $69

--Four Rolling Pick Threes of $84, $93, $164 & $136

--A Rolling Pick Five of $1,270

--A Rolling Pick Four of $517

--A $130 Triple Box

--A $16 Quinella Box

We are currently 46:12-6-4 for the meet, and currently have a cumulative flat bet profit over our last four meets ( $1,506 Bet/$1,528.40 Returned )

Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis for the Grade One's La Troienne & Kentucky Oaks from Churchill Downs, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/6

 

Race  1

1.Royal Realm 

2.King of Hollywood

3.Prince of Joy

#3 ROYAL REALM down the lane. After a maiden breaking win & a voided claim, #5 KING OF HOLLYWOOD was ambitiously shipped down to a Turfway Park stakes ( Huh ? ) where he promptly got walloped at 76-1. Colt is now properly spotted, and looks to be the only one with a chance to upset the above, IF able to get back to the penultimate figaro. #1 PRINCE OF JOY played the fade when hiked up the ladder 26 days in the rear, but gelding was coming in off of back to back career #'s, and the regression can be understood. Jackie shuttling between here & the Lakes these days, & she always tries hard for the minor spoils.  NOTE: AS OF 11:21 A.M. THURSDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-3-1.  NOTE: AS OF 11:11, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-1-2.

 

Race  2

1.Easy Shot

2.Giocare

3.Dark Storm

#6 EASY SHOT has been nicely kept in jail after being snagged from a near identical spot on 3/27, & four returnees from that jamboree have amassed a cumulative 4:2-0-2 mark in their followups, with ALL of them improving ( by an average of 9.6 pts. per ). #2 GIOCARE is 3:1-2-0 with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his butt, and found the line first in his only start at today's distance of ground. From a tiny sampling, R.R.R. is two of four when cutting back locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the baccala 32-50 days in the rear ( 17-1 or less ) w/returns of $7 & $11. $7 DARK STORM has been a popular item at the claim box of late, as this one has had to leave a forwarding address after 6 of his last 7, and happens to exit the same race as the above. From a DRF Formulator POV, 16% outfit more than doubles that batting average with those of this ilk who were claimed 30-50 days back ( 19-1 or undah ) with payofs of $10, $8 & $5.

 

Race  3

1.Sweet Franny Lu

2.She's a Mia

3.Caumsett

#2 SWEET FRANNY LU gave a decent account of herself after the hibernation, and from a trainer stat perspective, 13% shedrow is a snappy 4-7 with Elmont based allowance sod stayers who crashed the fiesta < 54 days in the past at 16-1 or undah ( $6, $9 & $10 x 2 ). #8 SHE'S A MIA has undergone a bit time trainer transition since last placing in a stakes back in the fall, and is promptly in receipt of Lasix & a better jockey. #1 CAUMSETT has closed out the exacta both times when breaking from the innermost two slots, and barn is a decent 2 of 7 with turf stayers off sabbaticals of 69-241 days ( 45-1 or lower ), w/ parimutuel payouts of $17 & $26.  OFF TURF 1-4-8-5-10(MTO) 

 

Race  4 

1.Limit Up 

2.Barone Marchis

3.Crock of Gold

#2 LIMIT UP doesn't have a whole heck of a lot of turf pedigree in the family tree, so the fact that his initial try over the stuff a baker's dozen days ago yielded a Beyer Speed Figure higher than those on the dirt, it pretty much means you can feel free to use those #'s as a point of reference. Aside from that, there's a nice trainer stat in play, as Klesaris is a sharp 6:4-0-1 when going green to brown with those off breaks of 25 days or less ( beneath the 9-1 watermark ). The winners came back $11, $10, $7 & $6, and as this one has gotten smacked around fairly well over his last troika, who's to tell what can happen with a clean trip. #9 BARONE MARCHIS was a well beaten but daylight clear runner up on the 16th of April, and is logical, despite a bounce being possible. #6 CROCK OF GOLD as good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  5

1.Thin White Duke 

2.Shawdyshawdyshawdy

3.Khafre

#11 THIN WHITE DUKE shocked the joint at Aqueduct to the tune of $69 last month, and as that came with the addition of the wonder drug, a regression is always feasible this afternoon. Honk if you like Donk with allowance stock going long on the lawn who scored less than 40 days in the rear ( @ 15-1 or < ), as he's won all three times -- $12, $20 & $27. #2 SHAWDYSHAWDYSHAWDY will be brought over by a fella whose won three of wight when it involves his Belmont runners under these parameters who hit the board less than 56 days ago & are 28-1 or below ( $10 x 2 & $5 ). #8 KHAFRE took to the grass like a Toro down at GP in early April, and as A.P.'s have been faring well over the stuff, we'll leave in the hopper.  OFF TURF: 2-4-5(MTO)12(MTO)3

 

Race  6 

1.R Working Girl

2.Beautiful Karen

3.Daily Briefing

These three should suffice for all our rolling action.  #8 R WORKING GIRL has lost ground in the lane over her last triad, but gets a triple bug in the irons and draws ideally for her first start off the Rudy claim. There will be no "tepid handling" this time, as we're expecting the killer crossover to be employed. No worse than 3rd for those who like to grind out a show profit. #3 BEAUTIFUL KAREN is another zippy sort whose best efforts have come at today's dx., and is up for grabs for the 1st time. #3 DAILY BRIEFING has been an entirely different animal this year, and comes in today with two wins from her last three 1X heats. NOTE: AS OF 11:15, #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Shiraz

2.The Last Zip

3.Next Flight

#4 SHIRAZ is a nibbler by nature, but owns a 6:1-1-2 ledger off a freshening, and was a snappy victor the last time he was in for a quarter. Six of six superfecta rate with Carmouche in the stirrups duly noted. #3 THE LAST ZIP has the eye cups removed today in his first start for the new outfit, and well traveled sort is confidently hiked up the ladder after being snagged down in the Bayou. #7 NEXT FLIGHT goes over the blades for the first time, and although the bloodlines son't scream "green", sometimes dirt speed can go a long way on the verde.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-2(MTO)-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:19, DUE TO A COUPLE OF KEY LATE SCRATCHES, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 9-3-7.  NOTE: AS OF 4:09, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-5-7.

 

Race  8 

1.First Constitution ( Chi )

2.Locally Owned

3.Portos

Featured race of the day is upon us, and we're gonna give a tepid nod to the #2 FIRST CONSTITUTION (CHI). Pletcher charge lost by less than a length in his only "true" second off the shelf spot ( at 11-1 ), & went coast to coast the last time today's jock was astride. #3 LOCALLY OWNED is one of two off a break ( & on the sand ), and speaking of sand, is two for three at Big Sandy to boot -- with one of those wins coming in tandem with Davis. #4 PORTOS was a visually impressive winnah in his one & only "2nd off the L/O" try, and uncoupled barnmate with our top choice can grab a portion.  NOTE: AS OF 4:21, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-5-3.

 

Race  9 

1.Nikostratos

2.Joint Resolution

3.Front Line Dancer

Another race where our listed troika should suffice.   #1 NIKOSTRATOS looked quite professional when placing in both starts last annum, and now returns with blinks, juice, & a new pilot. From the most minuscule of samplings, Thomas two of three w/ mdspwt. turf routers off absences of 68-234 days ( 10-1 or beneath ), with payouts of $12 & $5. #2 JOINT RESOLUTION had a boatload trouble first time out, but still managed to best half the field, and now transitions to what will likely be his preferred surface down the road. #6 FRONT LINE DANCER should be a bit closer to the pace today, and the adjusted fig. from December's bow puts this one in the mix.  OFF TURF:2-4-6-8-10  NOTE: AS OF 4:15, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 13(MTO)-11(MTO)-9(MTO)

  

Belmont             ( Current ): 13-47   ( $76.80 ) Beatable   Favorites    N/A  ( N/A )  Favorites   Win %:  13-47   ( 27.7% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 2-15      ( $13 )    Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  7-15     ( 46.9% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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