SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/8
  
  

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Chalky three bagger on a washout of a day yesterday, an we've now won 12 of our last 29, and are 67:18-8-10 on the stand, with a cumulative flat bet profit over our last four meets ( $1,548 Bet/$1,549 Returned )


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/8

 

Race  1

1.Victory Built

2.Quickflash

3.Mr. Buckley

#4 VICTORY BUILT hasn't been in action since being claimed a couple'a months ago, and despite being long clear from the jail period, Rudy sees fit to confidently hike this one up more than 50% in class, while securing the services of a bug he's had some success with. Bay boy is a notorious nibbler ( 31:1-10-5 ), but the lone tally came right here, and he ain't facing much -- including a runner who raced just 71 1/2 hours ago -- ummm...what ? #5 QUICKFLASH is another one who prefers the fringes, but has also been protected since the past purchase, and there's a decent trainer upgrade in play today, for a gelding who prefers the outside. #2 MR. BUCKLEY found the line first the only tine he had a "For Sale" sticker on his rump, and we'll use despite the low % jock. Oh, from a trainer stat perspective, 15% clan more than doubles that rate w/ locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the baccala < 26 days back, as they're 4-12 in that regards ( $6, $9 & $19 ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:57, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-4-5.

 

Race  2

1.Roz

2.Kat Tee Gal

3.Elegant Laoban

These three & no more for all our rolling action.  #2 ROZ has closed out the tri in both starts when up for grabs, gets in light for today's 3rd start off the pine, and according to DRF Formulator, barn is 13:5-2-4-2 ( 100% superfecta rate ) with sand sprinters at this level, who crashed the board less than 34 days back, who are 9-1 or lowah ( $2, $3, $10, $7 & $8 ). #4 KAY TEE GAL has shown improvement with each passing start and goes T to D, R to S, and drops a few pegs as well. Sensible addition. #1 ELEGANT LAOBAN has a few decent/recent running lines, and should be no worse than 3rd for those show punters out there. 

 

Race  3

1.Forever Wicked

2.Air Show

3.Six Percent 

#6 FOREVER WICKED is one of four when last to load ( 1-32 otherwise ), and best work has come at today's distance of ground. Meek selection in an unembraceable race. #1 AIR SHOW has been perfectly kept in prison since bought 31 days back, and given the adjusted 74.1 earned that day -- at this level -- we wouldn't be shocked to see another solid effort, especially with Flavah Flav in the stirrups. #5 SIX PERCENT has done his finest work in Elmont, and it's encouraging to see Javy return after trailing with this one way back when.  NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-1-3.

 

Race  4 

1.Sarah's Splendor

2.Hikaru

3.Wine Goddess

#3 SARAH'S SPLENDOR begins his working life this afternoon, and does such with a decent turf Tomlinson, as well as a nice 3-10 trainer statistic, which has Abreu at just that with his firsters going short on the green stuff ( 3 year olds vs. older ) that are getting Lasix ( 36-1 or beneath ), and there's a sub category of 1-1 with Trevor aboard -- and just look at these prices -- $16, $21 & $24 !  Note that she's a full to My Sassy Sarah, who went 9:2-0-3 on the green stuff, banking 94 large. #5 HIKARU ( uncpupled barnmate with the above ) can be given the exact same trainer statistics, but we're leaving beneath because of the jockey stat above. #10 WINE GODDESS rounds out the triple.  OFF TURF: 1-10-7(MTO)-5-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-1-9.

 

Race  5

1.Bold Victory

2.Smart Joker

3.Kid Cash

#4 BOLD VICTORY ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) hails from an outfit that's 12:6-1-2-3 with maiden claiming male dirt runners who were 1-2-3 12 to 50 days in the past, and are 6-1 or under ( $3.51 ROI ). Good chance to make amends off the money burning effort. #3 SMART JOKER split the field at 27-1 first time out, and the show horse from that day was a gutsy winner right here on Thursday. #1 KID CASH hasn't faced the starter in a couple of Easters, but takes the biggest drop in the game & rates a puncher's chance if sound & fully cranked up.  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-8-1.

 

Race  6 

1.Angel Palm ( GB )

2.Miss Bella Ciao

3.Naked On the Beach

#4 ANGEL PALM (GB) was just so so when making her North American bow, but may perk up with the blinker addition. Mild choice. #6 MISS BELLA CIAO has been away for quite some time, but hung up an adj. 86.1 in her lone try off a break, but as Drysdale doesn't have his fastball with those returning off an elongated absence, we'll relegate this one to the "unders". #2 NAKED ON THE BEACH put it all together with a professional maiden breaking effort in Ozone Park back in mid April, and as Davis curiously lands on what we would consider to be a weaker candidate, we're encouraged to see Looie hop on.  OFF TURF: 11-2-5(MTO)-4-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-13-1.

 

Race  7

1.Snicket 

2.Baby Man

3.Honey Money

#6 SNICKET ( spotted on Saturday ) shoots for the hat trick today, and it's most definitely within reach, as this one has gone 4:2-2-0 ( with the jockey remaining aboard ) in all her starts since being transferred over to the David Duggan barn. Trevor chooses to ride for Bonnie Potts ( or is it Wayne Lucas ? ) today, but today's J/T are 4:2-1-1 in tandem on the brown stuff ( at 29-1 or < ), w/payoffs of $3 & $9. #7 BABY MAN ( another who was entered yesterday ) went coast to coast like butter and toast in the Aqueduct overture, and who are we to dismiss ? #9 HONEY MONEY has partaken in the superfecta in 11 straight, 14 of 15, 17 of 19, & 19 of 22; factor in a two of four record at Big Sandy, and you have the makings of a strong entrant.   NOTE: AS OF 12:17, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-8-1.

 

Race  8 

1.Bank Sting

2.Zaajel

3.Lady Rocket

Today's featured race is named after the greatest filly of all time, Ruffian. To make your day brighter, we've enclosed video of her sensational Mother Goose win right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2qfLJYcq5s . As for the race itself, we'll give the nod to #1 BANK STING, who's only two defeats came when finishing 4th of 11 at 52-1 in a 518K stakes first out, and a flop in the slop. She handled open foes just fine with a gamely score at The Big A two months back, and is also two of two when breaking from the innermost two posts. In Prat we trust. #5 ZAAJEL won the aforementioned Mother Goose at 18-1 last year, and would probably be better served if the track is fast. #2 LADY ROCKET ( scratched out of the Churchill event for this ) owns oodles of speed, has hit the board in both "second off the shelf" jammies, and owns the sort of declining mark we like to see ( 12:6-3-1 ). If we lose, we'd be happy to see the boys from Ten Strike ( who led us to a GREAT barbecue joint on Tuesday ! ) get the money. 

 

Race  9 

1.Braciole

2.Nicholas James

3.Cousteau

#8 BRACIOLE improved by about 10.2% when facing winners for the first time ( something that's never easy to do ), and The Toddster is a snazzy 4-9 with Belmont based allowance dirt equines who were ITM 38-50 days in the rear ( males ), with returns of $7, $3 & $5 x 2. We were on #10 NICHOLAS JAMES for the daylight win first out, and as this one draws the outside once again, AND gets one of the best riders in the biz, who are we to exclude? #7 COUSTEAU is always in the thick of things and can land some squid.

  

Belmont             ( Current ):18-67     ( $104.60 ) Beatable   Favorites    N/A  ( N/A )  Favorites   Win %:  23-67   ( 34.3% ) 

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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