SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/13 - Friday the 13th...BOO !!
  
  

KevinCoxItem


Chalky day yesterday with a cold $22 Quinella & a $210 Triple Box, as we're now currently 85:20-14-11 on the stand. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


of

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - 5/13 - Friday the 13th...BOO !!

 

Race  1

1.Dolce Sera

2.Geometrique

3.Hop Picker

Given the poor turf pedigree, #3 DOLCE SERA posted a decent effort when trying the stuff last time out, and if you're inclined to prorate that to her best try on the dirt ( which we are ), then what you have is a figaro which fits well here. From a tiny sampling, barn is 4:2-0-1 when going green to brown with those who missed the board < 17 days ago ( $19 & $13 ). #5 GEOMETRIQUE hasn't been seen since New Year's Eve Eve, but pre layoff pilot returns, and gal gets blinks & the wonder drug. Note the barn at 5:2-0-1 with locally based dirt stock in the 51-131 day range ( $13 & $18 ). After being a bit tardy to the party at Oldsmar first time out ( and coming along late in the game ),#4 HOP PICKER fired off a sizzling best of 75 breeze on Monday, and that's pretty rare for Shug. Seven next out runners from the bow rung up a 7:3-0-1 mark in their followups, with an average BSF improvement of 4.4 points. 

 

Race  2

1.Stormi Cat Lady 

2.Simple Sugar

3.Game Theory 

#1 STORMI CAT LADY down the lane. #6 SIMPLE SUGAR has been a part of the superfecta in all her dirt outings and got her only win when breaking from an outsidish ( 6 of 8 ) slot. #5 GAME THEORY has been off the board in eight straight, but picks up Jackie, who always tries hard for the minor spoils. 

 

Race  3

1.Mr. Kringle

2.Barrel of Quests

3.Maseta

#3 MR. KRINGLE owns a 7:1-2-2 mark at today's distance of ground, and according to DRF Formulkator, Terranova is 3 of 8 with turf stayers in the 68-82 day bracket at 41-1 or undah ( $58, $6 & $3 ). Gets the best pilot in the nation. #7 BARREL OF QUESTS more than doubled his initial speed figure when procuring the sheepskin 20 days in the rear ( from an outside post at 11-1 ), so who knows where this one's ceiling is. #5 MASETA is 2nd off the bench & gets the big "L" for the first time, while having a reunion w/his favorite jockey.  OFF TURF: 1-1A-3-7-5

 

Race  4 

1.The Sleepychipmunk

2.Mister Chairman

3.Bointheback

#8 THE SLEEPYCHIPMUNK bested half the field when going over the gramma for the 1st time ( losing by just a couple ), and the pedigree tells us this may be his preferred surface down the road. Owner of Cyberknife has the fever for the flavor of a Flavien, and that's fine by us. #12 MISTER CHAIRMAN is a late bloomer, but has a bit of a maturity edge over most signed on, and $250,000 bred animal can be all yours for about 1/6th of that today. Fella is a half to Disco Rico ( 33:11-6-8, with about $1.5 million earned -- mostly over the blades ) and draws ideally. #3 BOINTHEBACK nearly blew up the tote board when switching surfaces most recently, and must be left in the mix once again.  OFF TURF: 8-3-4-13(MTO)-1

 

Race  5

1.School of Thought

2.Saratoga Commando

3.Afilada

#1 SCHOOL OF THOUGHT has been a part of the super in all four( fast track ) starts off a break in the action ( one of them when first to load ) and rates a slight edge here. #6 SARATOGA COMMANDO hasn't been seen in nearly three Saratogas, but takes the biggest drop in the game for his first start with Rudy Rod, and gets the wonder drug as well. Expect this one to be forwardly placed early with a dearth of speed entered & a bug listed. #2 AFILADA has cashed a handful of checks & would be no surprise. 

 

Race  6 

1.Buy Land and See

2.Price Talk

3.Principled Stand ( GB )

#2 BUY LAND AND SEE has fared decently in both 2nd off the shelf engagements, is 3:1-0-1-1 on the Widener, 3 fer 4 @ the trip, and Dutrow has won with half of his six optional turf stayers who crashed the party < 58 days in the rear ( $9 x 2 & $8 ). #4 PRICE TALK got the job done in his only start when up for sale, is two for two when paired up with Javy -- and one of those occurred in s second off the bench deal. Uncoupled entrymate to the above could be sitting on a goodie. #8 PRINCIPLED STAND (GB) is a successful but fragile sort who's been beset by layoff lines after each of his three outings, and since the last, has received the unkindest cut of all. Take a looksie during warmups.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-5-4

 

Race  7

1.Bye Bye

2.Minaun ( Ire )

3.Amalfi Princess

Don't have the best of reads here, so tread lightly.  #4 BYE BYE hasn't faced the starter in quite some time, but found the line first in her only sod start with Lasix, and it's encouraging to see Rosario climb back on. #7 MINAUN (IRE) fell short by only a half in her only second off the layoff attempt & is 3:1-1-1 outside of stakes ranks. #2 AMALFI PRINCESS completed the tri in her lone start off this kind of L/O spot, and should be right there late in the game with Saez hopping on.  OFF TURF: 1-3(MTO)-7-2-8(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Bustin Bay

2.Shadolamo

3.Sweet Mia

#4 BUSTIN BAY all the way. #6 SHADOLAMO was a gamely 15-1 runner up at this level on 4/29, and we see no reason another ITM finish is within her grasps. #2 SWEET MIA went 6 wide in a 5 horse field last out ( Nurse ! ), and Charlie promptly switches from the apprentice to a top flight jock this afternoon. 

 

Race  9 

1.Addicted to You

2.Bustin Up ( AE )

3.On Palm Sunday

#2 ADDICTED TO YOU hasn't done a whole lot to get the pulse racing, but if you're willing to toss the comebacker as well as the dirt tries, then what you're staring at is an adjusted 72.1 showing which came in an identical spot, and at 47-1, no less, WHILE encountering a boatload of trouble. Big shot to shock in a lackluster allotment. #13 BUSTIN UP (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, would be taking a plunge while owning a strong initial turf line. #7 ON PALM SUNDAY may have been better suited to "Before Palm Sunday, as he was foaled the day before, but monikers aside, this one owns a pair of nice works from the gate and needn't be much to make an impression.  OFF TURF: 10-12-7-11-9  NOTE: AS OF 10:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  DUE TO A GATE SCRATCH, #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Belmont             ( Current ):20-85     ( $115.98 ) Beatable   Favorites    0-1  ( 0% )    Favorites   Win %: 29-85   ( 33.4% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


cox2022logo