SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Analysis - 5/6 - La Troienne & Kentucky Oaks - Churchill Downs
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for the Belmont card, merely go back one page. 

Big day for us here yesterday, as we had the following:

--Six winners of $3, $5, $6, $4 & $10 x 2

--Five Exacta Boxes of $17, $46, $25, $88 & $50

--Three Ice Cold Doubles of $9, $29 & $30 along with three Rolling Doubles of $37, $35 & $69

--Four Rolling Pick Threes of $84, $93, $164 & $136

--A Rolling Pick Five of $1,270

--A Rolling Pick Four of $517

--A $130 Triple Box

--A $16 Quinella Box

We are currently 46:12-6-4 for the meet, and currently have a cumulative flat bet profit over our last four meets ( $1,506 Bet/$1,528.40 Returned )

Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis for the Grade One's La Troienne & Kentucky Oaks from Churchill Downs, merely go back one page. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Graded Stakes - 5/6 - La Troienne & Kentucky Oaks - Churchill Downs

 

Race  6

1.Shedaresthedevil

2.Pauline's Pearl

3.She's All Wolfe

#2 SHEEDARESTHEDEVIL is 5 of 5 here, 3:2-1-0 when breaking from the innermost two slots, 4:3-0-1 in "true" second off the shelf jammies, and Cox owns a poyfect three fer three ledger with Graded dirt stayers not receiving Lasix who crashed the board 51-59 days back at 5/2 or less ( $5, $3 & $2 ). Deserving fave. #6 PAULINE'S PEARL was a gamely runner up directly in front of a next out winner in her lone 3rd off the shelf engagement while having hit the board in 11 of her last dozen. Not sure what gets her over the top today, but she sure as heck seems like a sensible unders candidate. #5 SHE'S ALL WOLFE owns a 5:1-1-1-2 ledger off the pine and digs it here. 

 

Race  11

1.Kathleen O

2.Secret Oath 

3.Echo Zulu

Take a look at some of the classic Shug Runners over the years, and many of them have had the same running lines -- stalkers/closers who have improved over time while stepping up in class, AND stretching out. In the case of #10 KATHLEEN O, we have all of that, AND the cat that the barn is a tight four of five w/ graded sand stayers who won 18-50 days back & are NOT receiving the wonder drug ( 7-1 or less ), with payoffs of $3, $4, $8 & $12. There's a sub category of 2-2 with Javy in the irons, and we'll give this gal a slight edge in the most competitive Oaks we've seen in quite some time. #1 SECRET OATH encountered a boatload of trouble when showing against the boys in Arkansas, and we feel that Contraras deserved a chance to make amends after winning three straight beforehand. Obvious factor back in with the gals. There's an old adage of not leaving out undefeated runners at more than 3-1, and we see no reason to exclude #7 ECHO ZULU after having reeled off five straight. 

  
Belmont             ( Current ): 13-47   ( $76.80 ) Beatable   Favorites    N/A  ( N/A )  Favorites   Win %:  13-47   ( 27.7% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 2-15      ( $13 )    Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  7-15     ( 46.9% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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