SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/14
  
  

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A frightful Friday the 13th yesterday ( 9:0-5-1 ), with several of those decent prices, as we look to get out of our slump today, while totong along a 94:20-19-12 on the stand. 

Nonethe;ess, our "unders" fared well, with two triple boxes of $80 & $139, three rolling doubles of $140, $160 & $13, two rolling pick threes of $778 & $131, three exacta boxes of $70, $37 & $24, a rolling pick 4 of $1,226, and a rolling grand slam of $288.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/14 

Race  1

1.N Y Anthem

2.Devil Boy 

3.Safalow's Mission

#5 N Y ANTHEM overcame a bit of trouble at the onset to flash some early speed in the Philadelphia Park overture, before completing the triple going against what we would consider to be weaker competition. From a DRF Formulator point of view, barn is a tight 4:3-0-1 with 2nd time starters in sand sprints who were ITM at first asking ( 26-1 or less ) with a positive ROI in that regards. We can't use #6 DEVIL BOY here without including a Seinfeld "Puddy" clip, wearing a copious amount of face paint https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ftUR6AFTNMA . As for the equine, this one posted some solid adjusted figaros a year back, and is an obvious contender if sound. #2 SAFALOW'S MISSION more than outran her turf pedigree when trying the stuff for the first time 2 1/2 weeks back, & simply by prorating that to his best dirt #, he obviously belongs; FWIW, the "Still awaiting my license revocation" Linda Rice, is two of three when going green to brown at this level off of this kind of break ( $7 x 2 & $6 ).  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Dee Bo

2.Steelersfanforlife

3.Tenure

#10 DEE BO displayed zippo in the lone turf try, but that was quite some time ago, and we're encouraged to see the trainer give this one another shot over the stuff, while keeping him above the price claimed from two back. Could sit a decent stalking trip should any sort of pace duel develop. #5 STEELERSFANFORLIFE is one of four off the bench, and said win came right here -- a course he's had some success on. Needs to reverse the fortunes from his last quintet. #8 TENURE is a bit of a fragile sort, but is 2:1-1-0 with Joel in the irons ( who called off his mounts on Thursday, so check the changes ) & rates a puncher's chance.  OFF TURF: 5-9((MTO)-1-2-10

 

Race  3

1.Assertive Style 

2.Bella Sofia

3.Frank's Rockette

#1 ASSERIVE STYLE is aggressively spotted after being bought for 80 large at the end of March, and why not, as this one owns a two for two mark when going brown to green. Todd in an honest showing on her only start when first to load along with a triad of nice morning moves since being snagged, and we'll bite at a big price in this truncated Vagrancy. #5 BELLA SOFIA has the best body of work in the field, is 4:3-1-0 at Big Sandy, ( with one of those tallies occurring in her sole start at this dx. ) and is a deserving chalk. #2 FRANK'S ROCKETTE is 3:1-1-0in second off the shelf engagements & has done decent work both at this trip & over this strip. 

 

Race  4 

1.Fredomofthepress

2.Thismightbetheone

3.U Should B Dancing

#12 FREEDOMOFTHEPRESS has the looks of being another good claim by Jimmy Ferraro, as he wheels back a gal who's won two of her last three, and fell short by only a half'a length the only time she stepped "hoof" on the Inner. Good to see Looie take the call, and of course, we dig the draw. #1 THISMIGHTBETHEONE is another entering off a score, and as it was a career best figaro, we'll chunk in, in case the light bulb stays on. #6 U SHOULD B DANCING completes our troika of recent victress', and is now 5:1-2-0 at today's distance of ground.  OFF TURF: 9-5(MTO)-4(MTO)-3(MTO)-13(MTO)

 

Race  5

1.Drafted

2.Answer In

3.Repo Rocks

#2 DRAFTED was a mite overmatched in the Carter, but won a G3 just before that ( in his one start w/today's jock ), and has partaken in the superfecta in all five "second off the L/O" jammies. Chance to rebound. #2 ANSWER IN is but a neck shy of having won both "third off the respite" deals, is two of four at today's dist., and gets the best jock in the land; toss the recent wet track effort, as he hasn't shown much over the stuff. #3 REPO ROCKS was a visually impressive winner when making his first start for a new clan, and we're guessing the Wolfsont mount was a "one time deal", as Silvera back on this afternoon. Beware of the bounce. 

 

Race  6 

1.Angel Palm ( GB ) 

2.Belacqua ( Ire ) 

3.Miss Bella Ciao

#7 ANGEL PALM (GB) loses the eye cups and goes over firm ground for the first time. Could perk up for a barn that doesn't get too many high priced winners. #7 BELACQUA (IRE) is but a schnoz shy of toting along a poyfect three fer three ledger into her North American debut, and gets the wonder drug administered for the 1st time. Gal faces some elders, & J/T combo are a mite chilly, but we'll incorporate. #8 MISS BELLA CIAO rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 2(MTO)-8-5-4-1(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Masked Marauder

2.Listentoyourheart

3.Bronx Bomber

#6 MASKED MARAUDER lit up the tote board when besting NYB A1X foes by a slivah on April Fool's Day, and the joke was most definitely on us, as the Beyer posted was a whopping 22 pts. higher than anything else this one has earned. Four year old sheds some tonnage off that win ( something we always dig ), and from an itty bitty sampling, Rudy Rod is 3;2-0-1 with locally based optional dirt stock who scored 32-509 days back ( $5 & $28 ). #3 LISTENTOYOURHEART ( "What heart?' ) was a cracker jack runner up ( at 38-1 no less ) the only time he ran over a glib surface after a break in the action, and after back to back layoff lines, runner has received the unkindest cut of all. #7 BRONX BOMBER went coast to coast when tangling with a similar grouping at the end of March, and we see no reason to leave out. NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to the track being wet, in Race 7, #1 will be a "Beatable Favorite".

 

Race  8 

1.Easter ( Fr )

2.Yibir ( GB )

3.Abaan

Featured race of the day is upon us, and it's named after one of the greatest of all time -- Man 'o War.  #1 EASTER (FR) was a bit tardy to the party two days before his moniker, when beginning his North American working life, but should improve with that under his girthstrap here, and gets a tremendous rider upgrade to Flavien. #2 YIBIR (GB) is on a nifty 7:4-2-0 streak, and that's while facing extremely salty competition. Chestnut chap was a runner up in his one "3rd off the bench" jamboree, and Buick makes the transatlantic flight in search of $41,250. Highly playable. #4 ABAAN can complete the "Escargot/Fish & Chips/Apple Pie" triple based on the nine exacta finishes over his last 11 calls to the post.  OFF TURF: 2-1-4-3-5

 

Race  9 

1.Electability

2.We the People

3.Cooke Creek

#2 ELECTABILITY has been a completely different animal since switching over to the main, in going two for two, & sheds 64 ounces off the tally, which  is something that tickles our fancy. Cancel to Irad switch is just fine by us, and this one definitely has the looks of a top three player. #4 WE THE PEOPLE washed out in the Arkansas Derby, but went back to back just before that, and we have no qualms in using a Constitution with a Tiznow mare in a one turn mile & an eighth race. #7 COOK CREEK completed the tri in his lone "true" start of a hibernation, and has eye cups affixed for the first time. 

 

Race  10

1.Plum Ali

2.Runaway Rumour

3.Our Flash Drive

#4 PLUM ALI shoots for the interrupted hat trick today, and it's well within reach, given the versatility shown in both scores, as well as a victory the one time she ran on the ITC. Mild edge in a race with no first draft tossouts. From a DRF Formulator POV, C-Squared is three of nine w/graded turf stayers at 9-1 or less, off breaks of < 56 days ( NOT getting the "Big L" ). #5 RUNAWAY RUMOUR is but a neck short of being two for two on this course and could jazz things up a bit. #7 OUR FLASH DRIVE was photogenic in her only start off this type of break, and may come along for a share.  OFF TURF: 7-1-6-3-4

 

Race  11

1.Highway Queen

2.Autumn Glory

3.Theodora Grace

#12 HIGHWAY QUEEN got smacked around at the onset before losing by a length & a half in her lone "second off the shelf" attempt ( at 7-1 ), and 11% Klesaris nearly triples that rate ( 3-10 ) with turf dashers who missed the money less than 56 days back & are 26-1 or below, with mutuels of $39, $26 & $7. #7 AUTUMN GLORY hasn't been in action since the maiden breaker in December, but the good news is that Clement is three of four with 2TS'ers going short on the sod coming in off a win ( 65 days or more ), w/payouts of $7 x 2 & $3. #10 THEODORA GRACE will be led over by an hombre who's 9:3-2-1 with turf sprinters who got the job done less than 60 days back & are beneath the 13-1 watermark ( $2, $3 & $21 ).  OFF TURF:10-3-7-2-16(MTO)

 

Belmont             ( Current ):20-94     ( $115.98 ) Beatable   Favorites    0-1  ( 0% )    Favorites   Win %: 33-94   ( 33.6% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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