SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/15


Breakeven day for us up top yesterday ( $9 & $13 ), and also had two Rolling Doubles ( $123 & $48 ) a $168 Exacta Reverse, a $503 Rolling Pick Three, and a Beatable Favorite.

We're now 105:22-12-14 on the stand. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/15


Race  1




#2 DIGITIZE smacked into the starting apparatus at the onset of his overture, and after steadying, was still abkle to secure second place money. Big time jock upgrade in play today, and from a DRF Formulator aspect, barn is a tight three for five with 2TS'ers who hit the board last out, fitting ALL these exact parameters ( any jock ). #4 PREDICTED has been a part of the super in three of four dirt attempts, and is logical in today's 3rd off the layoff tri. #1 NABOKOV ( uncoupled barnmate w/the above ) was a gamely runner up when breaking from the wood first out, & makes sense one again. 


Race  2

1.Sweet Sensation


3.Bells Principessa

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly.  #1 SWEET SENSATION showed marked improvement in getting the diploma second time out, and this one is a half to a 180K turf earner, so should be able to handle the transition today. #5 SYNONYMOUS put it all together when making her first start for Pregman, getting up late in the game to secure the sheepskin at Ozone Park, and as she's earned some gaudier speed figures in the past, we see potential for some improvement in that regards. #7 BELLA PRINCIPESSA is an extremely consistent sort who's 2:1-1-0 beneath Rosario, and should be right there at the finish.  OFF TURF: 1-3-5-2-6


Race  3

1.Out of the Woods



#3 OUT OF THE WOODS was in the rear with the gear first out, but as far as we know, Randi has never scored with a firster. That being said, the rail can often be a death knell for a slow breaking firster going 7/8th's, and fella was given some time to recover afterwards. Lasix is now a part of the makeup, and although barn doesn't win much, they do have a 2 for 8 mark with maidens who have raced getting the wonder drug for the first time ( 3 & up ) at 43-1 or less ( $41 & $23 ). Recognize that of the six immediate members of the family tree, four had their first win within their first two starts, and a 5th had a placing during that time. #5 MAKART ( scratched Friday for this ) completed the triple in his sole start of a respite and did such against open foes. #8 KINGSTOWN ( also spotted a couple'a days back ) showed good early zip in the bow & draws better today.   NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A WET TRACK, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-2-7. FAST WILL BE 2-5-7.


Race  4 


2.Quiet Out East


#4 CHOWDA has been in the back half of the pack over his last troika, so is now spotted on the gramma for the first time in order to shake things up a bit. Not sure how he'll take to the stuff, but his favorite pilot returns, & this one posted a decent figaro in his lone 2X to 1X deal. Price play in a race with no first draft eliminations. #7 QUIET OUT EAST is 1 for 3 off a break ( on the turf ) and has a 6:3-0-1 ledger with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump. #6 CHULAINN has improved with each & every trip to the frontside, and won by a honker in his lone try off a L/O.  OFF TURF: 5-3-1-7-2


Race  5

1.I Am the Law

2.Hooky Player

3.Kentucky Knight

#8 I AM THE LAW takes the biggest drop in the game today for an outfit that's won with half of their six turf stayers at this level who hit the board < 44 days back at 13-1 or beneath ( $6, $4 & $3 ). Love the bug to journeyman move. #1 HOOKY PLAYER hasn't been seen since the fall, but was doing okay work back then, and finds himself at his lowest level to date while picking up a hot pilot. #6 KENTUCKY KNIGHT displayed a lot of speed the only time blinks were added & may spice tings up a bit.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-2-4


Race  6 

1.South Street

2.American Rule

3.Civil War

#6 SOUTH STREET is back at a more palatable level after getting smacked around down in Maryland, and Mott is a saucy three of four with locally based allowance dirt equines off absences of less than 51 days ( ridden by today's jock ), with parimutual payouts of $11, $14 & $5. #8 AMERICAN RULE comes in off a career best numero ( in his 50th start ) and draws perfectly for what we feel is a drop in class. #1 CIVIL WAR will be brought over by a fella who's 3 of 9 with allowance dirt stock who were 1-2-3 24-50 days in the rear that are beneath the 11-1 watermark ( $12, $18 & $9 ). 


Race  7

1.Love and Thunder ( Ire )

2.Flighty Lady

3.Miss Dracarys

#2 LOVE AND THUNDER (IRE) is 3:1-2-0 off sabbaticals as well as 3:1-1-0 on the Widener ( with none of those races overlapping ); Prat gets the call. #9 FLIGHTY LADY ( uncoupled barnmate w/the above ) is another ho's fared well after a freshening ( 3:1-2-0 ), & pre layoff jock returns -- which is something we like to see. #8 MISS DRACARYS was photogenic the only time she routed off a respite & lost by only a half in her one partnership with today's helmsman. Factor if sound and fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 2-4(MTO)-6-8-10


Race  8 

1.Fluid Situation

2.Don't Wait Up


#4 FLUID SITUATION has improved by leaps & bounds over his last two starts, and from an itty bitty survey, Terranova is two for three with dirt runners who tallied a win 48-50 days back that are eschewing Lasix ( $6 & $8 ). #5 DON'T WAIT UP is 2nd off the layoff, 2nd time wonder drug, 1st time blinkers and draws the outside for the first time. Would only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression vs. these. #3 PROVOCATEUR closes out the tri. 


Race  9 

1.Mispelled Mooon 

2.Diamant Damhsa ( Ire )

3.Laugh and Play

#4 MISPELLED MOOON has hit the board in both starts where she left the gate, and may have needed the last. Meeeeeeekest of selections. #9 DIAMANT DAHMSA (IRE) overcame some trouble to get 2nd place money in her one turf dash overseas nearly a year ago to the day, and rates a big chance if able to get back to that performance. #2 LAUGH AND PLAY was marooned when last seen in Oldsmar, but the Beyer figure came back okay, and gets Irad for the return to action.  OFF TURF: 8-1-3-9-6

Belmont             ( Current ):22-105   ( $137.60 ) Beatable   Favorites    0-2  ( 0% )    Favorites   Win %: 36-105 ( 33.4% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout