SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/19
  
  

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #7 Shesalittle Edgy


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/19

 

Race  1

1.Reign of Love

2.Myriskyaffair

3.Mrs. Postman

#1 REIGN OF LOVE split the field at 16-1 first time out, and seven returnees from that heat have returned to amass a 7:2-1-1 mark in their next ( four different ) outings, with an average Beyer improvement of a point. Mild choice in an opener with no first draft eliminations. #4 MYRISKYAFFAIR has improved with each passing, but may have outran her turf pedigree in the most recent, so we'll leave beneath. #3 MRS. POSTMAN was a bit tardy to the party when starting things out down at Maryland, but goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon, and the heat turned out to be a key one, as eight comebackers posted a cumulative 8:3-1-0 ledger next out ( in six sui generis affairs ).  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-4-6  

 

Race  2

1.Gaslight

2.Wicked Mad

3.Acceptable Risk

#2 GASLIGHT hasn't been seen in a couple'a Mother's Days, but new gelding is up for sale for the first time here, and shotcaller owns a crisp 4 for 7 record when doing that to his mid level dirt dashers off breaks of 68+ days ( $6 x 2, $5 & $3 ), with a sub category of 1-1 right here. #6 WICKED MAD is 3rd off the shelf, has never seen these depths, & trainer is 2 of 6 w/mid level dirt stock who missed the baccala 34-50 days in the past. #5 ACCEPTABLE RISK completes our troika of selections sliding down the ladder, but take a peek in the paddock, as this one was just snagged.  NOTE: AS OF 1:29, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 1-6-5.

 

Race  3

1.Carly Hustle

2.Miss Peppina

3.My Girl Lexi

#3 CARLY HUSTLE finds herself at an all time low & is 4-1-1-1 at today's distance of ground. Slight edge. #4 MISS PEPPINA is yet ANOTHER runner today on the dropola, and 5YO mare is two of two at BEL outside of stakes company. #6 MY GIRL LEXI outran her odds in the most recent after losing by two & change in the start just before that, and goes inside to outside today; could be on an upswing.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 BIG AL'S GAL  NOTE: AS OF 1:33, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-6-7.

 

Race  4 

1.Stony Point

2.Gal in a Rush

3.Screamin' By 

#7 STONY POINT showed some grit when placing in her first try against victress's, and may either be able to employ the "killer crossover" from this outermost slot, or sit a perfect stalking trip in a race with no first draft eliminations. #4 GAL IN A RUSH hasn't been seen since the autumn, but was doing some fine work back then, and returns in receipt of the wonder drug. From a Formulator aspect, C-Squared is two fer six when doing the latter to his sod sprinters off hiatus' of more than 67 days ( $4 & $12 ). #5 SCREAMIN' BUY is one fer two when returning off a break on firm ground, & has done nice work beneath today's helmsman.  OFF TURF: 1-5-8-7-3  NOTE: AS OF 1:37, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-5-1.

 

Race  5

1.Easy to Bless

2.Customerexperience

3.Shesalittle Edgy

#1 EASY TO BLESS was a decently clear runner up in this race three weeks back, and slides in seven post positions off that effort. A Jimmy Ferraro single for those looking to mingle. #3 CUSTOMEREXPERIENCE is on a solid 7:3-1-0-3 streak of late, and finished second underneath Saez in their lone pairing ( right here ) way back when. Should be in the thick of things late. #7 SHESALITTLE EDGY has the sort of "declining" mark that we always live to see ( 21:7-5-3 ), comes in off a win vs. slightly weaker, and has done good things both at this trip & over this strip.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 SHESALITTLE EDGY fills the bill, as we don't see our top choice losing.

 

Race  6 

1.Boom Boom Kaboom

2.Cousin Andrew

3.King Moonracer 

#2 BOOM BOOM KABOOM shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, given the recent figaro earned. Meekest of selections in the toughest of races. #11 COUSIN ANDREW is 3:1-1-0 off a hibernation, and has partaken in the superfecta in his two turf tries; factor if sound & fully cranked up. #12 KING MOONRACER has a 3:1-1-0-1 boxscore on the Widener and can close things out: OFF TURF: 5-1-6-3-8  NOTE: AS OF 1:41, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-11-3.

 

Race  7

1.Alcools

2.Zaevion

3.Demo Doctor

#9 ALCOOLS found the line first in his only "true" non stakes dash off a break in the action ( discounting the deal where he clipped heels ), has amassed a nice mark in Elmont, and from a trainer stat perspective, Falcone is no snowman with his freshly purchased sand sprinters at this level ( and locale ) who haven't been seen in 51-129 days, as he's 5:3-1-0-1 in that regards ( $4 x 2 & $5 ). #8 ZAEVION has a 3:1-1-0 record in 2nd off the layoff dirt dashers going short, and outfit owns a 7-18 mark w/male runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 less than 46 days in the rear at 9-1 or undah ( $3.68 ROI ). #7 DEMO DOCTOR is an extremely consistent sort and would be no surprise.  NOTE: AS OF 1:45, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-4-1.

 

Race  8 

1.Dancingwthdaffodls

2.Sassy Melissa

3.Itsakeyper

#3 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS likely needed the comebacker, and not only has this one been a part of the super in three of four "second off the absence" starts, but low percentage conditioner is two for six with those going short on the gramma who missed the money less than 22 days back ( 79-1 or below ), with mutuels of $39 & $6. Bombs away. #2 SASSY MELISSA has put forth strong back to back efforts since being freshened up, and loves this dist,; logical. #7 ITSAKEYPER is a bit of a fragile sort, but it's good to see her owning a 7:3-1-0-1 mark when coming back after being away ( oh-fer-18 otherwise ).  OFF TURF: 8-13(MTO)-1-9-3  NOTE: AS OF 1:49, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 11-12-13.

 

Race  9 

1.Jimmy the Boot

2.King of Sting

3.Vocalize ( AE )

#8 JIMMY THE BOOT has immolated baccala over his last triad, but we're assuaged by the fact that Christophe is three for five with maiden platers cutting back on the green, who were out of the money 13-67 days in the rear ( $5, $6 & $7 ). #5 KING OF STING has gone 46-57-67 in his troika of turf heats thus far, so who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. #14 VOCALIZE (AE) needs a couple to declare in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, would be toting along a decent resume' for his N.Y. debut.  OFF TURF: 7-2-1-9-4   NOTE: AS OF 2:21, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 11-2-7.


Belmont             ( Current ):24-114   ( $151.20 ) Beatable   Favorites    0-2  ( 0% )    Favorites   Win %: 36-114 ( 33.7% ) ( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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