SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/20


Chalky three bagger on a mess of a day yesterday. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


Belmont - 5/20


Race  1


2.Don't Be Cheeky

3.Martini's Amica

#6 REQUESTFORPROPOSAL has been a part of the superfecta in all her turf starts to date. has a "For Sale" stickah attached to her rump for the first time, makes her 3rd start off the shelf, and from a small sampling, barn is two of five with locally based maiden claiming sod stayers off L/O's of 41-67 days. Mild choice. #3 DON'T BE CHEEKY has shown little to date, but gets the wonder drug for the first time, as well as stretching out; Jackie always tries hard for the minor spoils. #1 MARTINI'S AMICA posted her best effort to date when going from green to brown, and it came at boxcar odds, to boot. Big jockey upgrade here as well.  OFF TURF: 4-5-7-1-6

Race  2

1.Dealing Justice

2.Caramel Swirl

3.Piece of My HEart

#3 DEALING JUSTICE has yet to miss a super ( mostly with today's pilot ), and according to DRF Formulator, barn has a Handal on the situation when it comes to their Belmont based optional dirt entrants who hit the board 8-50 days back at 10-1 or < ( $13, $5 & $8 ). #1 CARAMEL SWIRL owns a 4:2-2-0 ledger in "true" starts off a respite, when it comes to today's dist., she excels, as her 6:3-1-0 mark belies. #4 PIECE OF MY HEART has closed out the exacta in all three starts off a respite, and can make an impression here. 


Race  3

1.Ace Girl

2.Keen Dancer 

3.My Delicious

#7 ACE GIRL has done nothing to get the pulse racing in either start to date, but takes the biggest drop in the game for her new conditioner, who, as a matter of fact has won half the time ( 4 of 8 ) when getting a runner & spotting them in a sand sprint off a hibernation of 58-342 days ( $31, $2, $3 & $11 ), with a sub category of 1-1 at this level. Big shot if able to overcome her gate issues. #1 KEEN DANCER has a decent trainer stat behind her, as 6% Randi clicks at a 15% rate ( 6-40 ) with maiden platers in the 1-23 day bracket at 23-1 or less who were OTB when last seem. ( Positive R.O.I. w/a sub category of 1-3 right here. ) #3 MY DELICIOUS is on an 8:M-6-0 run, and that's reason enough to leave beneath. 


Race  4 


2.Noble Conquest

3.Malibu Star

Not really feeling the heat from this heat, so grab something to eat & take a seat.  However, for rolling bet purposes...  #8 GHOSTMON gets his 12th different jock from as many trips to the frontside ( Yikes. ), but J/T combo are on an 8:2-0-2 run ( 30-1 or lower ), and runner has been close in all three tries on the Widener ( 3:0-1-1-1 ), finishing less than two lengths back each time. Franco had some butterfingers aboard #10 NOBLE CONQUEST last out, so Trevor hops on for today's 2nd off the shelf jamboree; could make some noise at a decent #. #6 MALIBU STAR is one of two in second off the bench deals.  OFF TURF: 5-3-10-13(MTO)-6


Race  5

1.Grand Cay

2.Snow's Island

3.Good Medicine

#7 GRAND CAY has improved with each passing start, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards? That being said, Shug has an 8:4-1-2-1 boxscore with BEL based mdspwt. turfers going long at less than 13-1, while getting Lasix ( 53 days or beneath ). The winners for that survey paid $5 x 2 & $8 x 2, and we'll make this one the most timid of selections in a race with but one first draft heave ho. #8 SNOW'S ISLAND has a decent overall body of work and would be no surprise. #4 GOOD MEDICINE is 2nd off the layoff & 2nd time Lasix; interesting to see Pletcher give a low % rider a shot.  OFF TURF: 6-1-8-11-14(AE)


Race  6 

1.Catch the Smoke


3.Heads or Tails

#4 CATCH THE SMOKE had positively no excuse for the flop at the Shore last time out, and his reacquainted with the bug from April's score this afternoon, and ain't facing much. Chance to rebound. #1 SILIPO is an extremely consistent sort ( which includes a 2:1-0-1 record at today's distance of ground ), and we like this one's ability to lay right off the pace or come from farther back. #6 HEADS OR TAILS has been a  completely different animal since switching barns, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman in this spot. 


Race  7

1.Bank On Anna

2.Pretty Clever

3.Khali Magic

#5 BANK ON ANNA has but one clunker to her credit and we wouldn't be surprised to see another solid performance in today's third start off the pine. #3 PRETTY CLEVER ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) owns a 4:1-1-1 mark at Big Sandy, and takes the obligatory hike in class after besting A1X foes 47 days in the rear. May fare even better over a glib surface. #6 KHALI MAGIC ( another spotted yesterday ) is 8:3-2-2 on the main, and what the hell's wrong with that?   NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 


2.Jade's Dream

3.Graded On a Curve

#1 DANZIGWITHTHESTARS posted an adjusted 93.8 in his only start on the Inner way back when, and has a tidy 3:2-0-0-1 record when breaking from the innermost two starts. We don't like taking bugs that are inexperienced in turf routes without getting some value, but as we think this one will be overlooked a touch, we'll nibble. #6 JADE'S DREAM was a lively runner up in his sole start on this course, and has done good work underneath today's helmsman. Logical. #8 GRADED ON A CURVE has been beset by some layoff lines, but is 4:3-0-0-1 off of true hibernations and two of those tallies came right here. Barn killing it this meet.  OFF TURF: 2-1-7-8-5


Race  9 

1.Pivotal Run

2.Resilient Courage

3.Bless Bless

#4 PIVOTAL RUN hasn't been in action since Turkey Time, but from a small study, Weaver has a 5:2-1-1 ledger with BEL stock at this level off sabbaticals of more than 67 days ( beneath the 24-1 watermark ), w/the winners coming back $11 & $7. #1 RESILIENT COURAGE hung up a lifetime best numero two fortnights back, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding. #12 BLESS BLESS lost by less than three lengths in both sod starts last annum ( posting nice Beyers in the process ) and may be a factor if sound & fully cranked to go.  OFF TURF: 5-3-4-1-2 

Belmont             ( Current ):27-123   ( $164.70 ) Beatable   Favorites    0-3  ( 0% )    Favorites   Win %: 40-123 ( 32.9% ) ( As of Friday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout