SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/21
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the Preakness & Presidents Cup from Pimlico, just go back one page.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #6 Dawnland  Race 4 - #12 Voice Of Spring  Race 11 - #11 Tingling Mint


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/21

 

Race  1

1.No Burn

2.Flowers for Lisa

3.Fast Break

#6 NO BURN all the way. ( But it will behoove you to take a peek in the paddock, as this one had a claim voided last out. ) #1 FLOWERS FOR LISA has hit the board in three straight & owns a nice "declining" mark at today's distance of ground. Bug will likely need to show some patience in sitting a pocket trip at this flat mile. #3 FAST BREAK has never been entered this cheaply, but it's worth noting that the only time she was spotted at levels just above this one -- she won. Expecting a goodie here.  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.B C Glory Days

2.Toga Dancer

3.Triple Brown

#2 B C GLORY DAYS was a gamely runner up when placing in this race at The Big A a month back, and slides in a couple of slots while shedding a pound as well. Looks like another single for those ready to mingle, but was cross entered yesterday, so check the changes. #1 TOGA DANCER bested half the field in his first try off a lengthy absence and is eligible to improve with that under his girthstrap. #4 TRIPLE BROWN ( also entered on Friday ) as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 7-2-8-5-1 NOTE: AS OF 12:03, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-2-8.

 

Race  3

1.Trinity Titoli

2.Daredevil Bull

3.Tasty Wave

#7 TRINITY TITOLI has been beset by some layoff lines, but is one of two off the pine ( beneath today's pilot ), and Rudy Rod is a fantastic 10 of 22 with locally based mid level dirt stock in the 52-75 day range ( 9-1 or less ) with a positive ROI. #1A DAREDEVIL BULL shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach given the way this grey gal as ascended the Beyer ladder over her last troika. #2 TASTY WAVE finally got a clean trip last time out, and went coast to coast against maiden platers in Ozone Park to the tune of $41. Sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while, so we'll chunk in.  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION, WITH #6 BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  4 

1.Synonymous

2.Miss Invincible

3.Classic Vinman

#3 SYNONYMOUS didn't exactly disgrace herself when facing winners for the first time, and gets in with a bug for today's 3rd start off the pine. Mild choice in an affair with no first draft eliminations. #1 MISS INVINCIBLE has shown a touch of speed at times, and could pose a threat if able to do such again, in a race devoid of much. #8 CLASSIC VINMAN has cashed a couple of minor checks since procuring the sheepskin three starts back, and is much better bred for the green than the brown, as this one is a half to one who went 13:2-4-1 over the blades.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-12(MTO)-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 6-10-8, WITH #12 BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE.  NOTE: DUE TO A GATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  5

1.Royal Currency 

2.Steppin Hawk

3.Mrs. Boomer

#7 ROYAL CURRENCY has immolated some baccala over his last three starts, and although this one seems to prefer closing out the exacta, she ain't facing much here, and should be no worse than 3rd for those looking to grind out a place profit. #1 STEPPIN HAWK often gets overlooked at the windows, but nonetheless, has been a part of the superfecta in 8 of her last 10, and one of those showings was in her sole start when breaking from the wood. #5 MRS. BOOMER begins her working life today and is decently bred for this trip.  NOTE: AS OF 2:58, DUE TO ANOTHER LATE SCRATCH, #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Storm Shooter

2.Winter Son

3.Sutton Valley

#5 STORM SHOOTER finds himself at his lowest level to date, could take to the sod and rates the meeeeeeeeekest of selections in a race that's tough to hug. #1 WINTER SON is 3:1-1-0 when breaking from the innermost three slots ( 5:0-1-0 otherwise ) and can be somewhat forgiven the troubled trip in the most recent. May spice things up a bit. #2 SUTTON VALLEY has been freshened up a bit for today's first start on the verde, and there's enough green in this one's family tree to merit inclusion. 

 

Race  7

1.Big Engine

2.Stage Left

3.Prince James

After back to back disappointing efforts, #4 BIG ENGINE has the blinkers removed by Rudy, and we're willing to give this one another chance because of his affinity for the strip ( 6:1-2-2 locally ), as well as the fact that this 7 year old ( who still has all his parts ) totes the lightest impost of his career. #1 STAGE LEFT is still in jail for one more day after the April purchase, so he takes the mandatory hike in class, while drawing a slot from which he's 5:1-2-1-0. Factor in a poyfect two fer two mark at today's distance of ground, and you have the look of a live speedster. #6 PRINCE JAMES has a nice overall body of work & is a deserving favorite. 

 

Race  8 

1.Feathers Road

2.Devil Or Angel

3.Excursionniste

#6 FEATHERS ROAD was a well clear runner up in his only "true" 2nd off the L/O jammie, and finished second in his last try on the turf as well. Tough to accept favoritism with a nibbler like this, but nothing else pops out here, soooo......  #1 DEVIL OR ANGEL hasn't been seen since turkey time, but has been gelded since last in action, and rates a shot if able to get back to the adjusted turf figaros from last year. #3 EXCURSIONNISTE displayed little in the comebacker, but had hit the board in all three tries on the green stuff prior to that, and we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 1-2-8-9-7

 

Race  9 

1.Tapizearance

2.Sicilia Mike

3.Double Shot

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #6 TAPIZEARANCE has done okay work at today's dist. while also partaking in the super in both starts beneath today's helmsman. Got smacked around pretty good when last in action, and could be in the thick of things late w/a tidier sojourn. #1 SICILIA MIKE is a nibbler by rote ( 20:2-10-3 at Big Sandy ) but has fared better than that when going into the gate first ( 5:1-1-1 ), and should be no worse than third for all you place punters out there. #7 DOUBLE SHOT is confidently hiked up in class after being bought seven weeks in the rear, and likes this dx. ( 8:2-3-0 ). 

 

Race  10

1.Deep Cover

2.Sherriff Bianco

3.Citizen K

#9 DEEP COVER will be led over today by a shotcaller who's three of five with allowance turf dashers who hit the board less than 56 days back at 17-1 or under ( allowance stock ), with payouts of $19, $10 & $3. #12 SHERRIFF BIANCO was a gutsy runner up in his one start off a break in the action, and has also completed the exacta in both starts on the Inner. Look for this one to be gunning early from the outside draw. #6 CITIZEN K didn't have easy sledding when going extremely wide in the most recent, but got up in time to grab the sheepskin, and aside from showing in his one "third off the layoff" try, has a trainer who's 6:2-0-2 with sod sprinters who won less than 46 days in the past.  OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-10

 

Race  11

1.War in Paradise ( AE )

2.Raymond Road

3.Quiet Type

#13 WAR IN PARADISE (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but should that be the case, would be coming in off a nice 4th place finish on 4/24, and gets in light. #4 RAYMOND ROAD beat half of the field home in his turf debut, and as that was his first try off a break, we'll chunk this one into the hopper, hoping for improvement. #3 QUIET TYPE closed stoutly to pick up 12% of the pot at 28-1 when last in action, and while a bounce is always possible off a career best effort, we'll include in this lackluster finale.  OFF TURF: 1-6-3-7-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:15, #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE W/#11 BEING A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 
Belmont             ( Current ):28-132   ( $168.10 ) Beatable   Favorites    0-3  ( 0% )    Favorites  Win %: 46-132 ( 32.9% ) ( As of Saturday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )

  _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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