SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 5/22
  
  

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Profitable grand slam betweeb here & Pimlico yesterday, along with a $376 Triple Box & two Exacta Boxes of $127 & $7, 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #12 Tis a Pity


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


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Belmont - 5/22

 

Race  1

1.Money in the Bank

2.Mexican Wonder Boy

3.Montauk Daddy

#2 MONEY IN THE BANK makes his 3rd start off the bench today, and is a neck shy of owning a two for two mark when in that kind of L/O scenario ( BOTH were his only starts when loading first ), and six year old also has a 2-2 ledger right here in Elmont as well ( with none of those races overlapping ). Looking good, despite the step back into open company. #6 MEXICAN WONDER BOY ( who should be no worse than 2nd for all you place punters out there ) won this race 16 days ago, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #5 MONTAUK DADDY takes the mandatory jump in class after a win & a claim on the 29th of April, and we like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment/medication change off a winning effort, and blinks are once again part of the equation. 

 

Race  2

1.Classic Colors

2.Cara's Dreamer

3.Pure Bode

#7 CLASSIC COLORS hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but won his only start off a respite, and it came beneath today's pilot as well. C-Squared knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers, and we'll give this one a slight margin in a race with no first draft eliminations. #2 CARA'S DREAMER has done her best work at today's distance of ground, and rates a big shot if able to get a tidier trip than the last seven wide sojourn. #3 PURE BODE hasn't been in action since turkey time, but pre break jock returns, and this one can land a share if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 6-1(MTO)5-2-9(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10-7-2.

 

Race  3

1.Masen ( GB )

2.Field Pass

3.Wolfie's Dynaghost

#4 MASEN (GB) lost by only a neck in a blanket finish when making his North American debut last month, & 4YO got his photo taken in his lone "2nd off the shelf" spot. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Brown is a tight 5:3-1-1 w/ungraded sod stayers who crashed the fiesta less than 68 days back ( positive ROI ). #1 FIELD PASS is two of three in second off the shelf engagements, and is a poyfect 5 of 5 when breaking from the innermost two post positions, and as NONE of those races overlap, you're looking at a cumulative 7 for 8 mark in two relevant categories. Chance should the above falter. #3 WOLFIE'S DYNAGHOST is on a nice 3:1-1-1 turf run, and can grab a piece.  OFF TURF: 1-4-2-5-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.

 

Race  4 

1.John'selectricride

2.Disengage

3.Perfect Banker

#2 JOHN'SELECTRICRIDE outran his turf pedigree when going over the blades for the first time, and if you want to feel to prorate that to his best dirt try, then what you have is a number that essentially lays over the entire field. Gelding has improved on the sand with each & every start, so who really knows where this one's ceiling is in that regards. Trevor took off some mounts after tumbling on Friday, so it would behoove you to check the changes. #1 DISENGAGE loses the hood for today's first start with a new trainer, and draws the rail for the 1st time also; could spice things up a bit. #5 PERFECT BANKER hung up an adjusted 59.5 in his one start over a glib surface ( vs. tougher ) and can grab some money. 

 

Race  5

1.Ofalltheginjoints

2.Frosted Bourbon

3.Summer At the Spa

#8 OFALLTHEGINJOINTS was a lively & decently clear runner up in this race two dozen days back, so perhaps the blinker addition was a good idea. We see no reason to go against, here, so will give this one a tepid nod. #4 FROSTED BOURBON smacked into the starting apparatus ( when likely hopelessly marooned anyway ) in the most recent -- essentially losing all chance -- but grey gal owns a win & a placing the last two times she had a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump & deserves another shot. #6 SUMMER AT THE SPA gets a positive upgrade in the trainer department this afternoon, and can round things out.  OFF TURF: 6-2-9-1-4  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #12 TIS A PITY will be brought over by a bossman who's 0-8 in all relevant categories. 

 

Race  6 

1.Thataint Tooshabby

2.Waters of Merom

3.Lola Flo

#7 THATAINT TOOSHABBY is backed by a sublime DRF Formulator statistic, which has Casse as class as Freddie Blassie when it comes to his mid level turf routers who were ITM 17 to 67 days in the past & are 7/2 or undah. He's a whopping 17 for 33 in that regards with a return on investment just south of three clams. #2 WATERS OF MEROM often gives a good account of herself, and as she's equally bred for the green as the brown, we wouldn't be shocked to see a solid performance. #1 LOLA FLO nearly blew up the tote board sown in Maryland on the first of the month, and goes from an apprentice, to one of the top 10 riders in the biz.  OFF TURF: 1-4-3-2-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:33, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-1-2.

 

Race  7

1.Join the Dots

2.Courageous Girl

3.Vienna Code

#4 JOIN THE DOTS has been beset by layoff lines after each of her three starts, but the good news is that she's yet to miss the board, & is facing no world beaters in this spot. Slimmest of margins in a heat with no first draft tosses. #3 COURAGEOUS GIRL has partaken in the superfecta in her last octet & has done nice work at today's dx. of ground. #1 VIENNA CODE was quite photogenic in her sole "second off the respite" start on a fast track, and also got the job done in her only fast track engagement when breaking from posts 1-3 ( under today's helmsman as well ). 

 

Race  8 

1.Whistling Birds

2.Lobsta

3.Mr Phil

#1 WHISTLING BIRDS has a 4:2-1-0 boxscore in "true" 3rd off tha layoff jammies, has won half of his outings at today's trip, and given the shotcaller's 3 of 8 mark with dirt dashers who won 51-63 days ago ( $4, $6 & $7 ), we'd say the grand salami is well within reach in this spot. #5 LOBSTA gives New York breds a good name, as this fella makes his 12th start her, and as he's banked more than 300 large, who are we to leave out of the mix? #2 MR PHIL ( entered at PIM on Sat. ) is in the best form of his life, and must be factored in. 

 

Race  9 

1.Jimmy the Boot

2.Vocalize

3.Committed

#6 JIMMY THE BOOT can somewhat be forgiven the Oldsmar finale, as perhaps he wasn't digging the softish ground that day, and having said that, C-Squared is a near poyfect 4 for 5 when cutting back his maiden claiming turfers off breaks of 23-67 days ( $9, $5, $6 & $7 ). We'll nibble at this money burner @ 9-2. #7 VOCALIZE has the best collection of figaros in the bunch & is first time Irad. #10 COMMITTED is up for grabs for the 1st time here & it's encouraging to see Joel climb aboard.  OFF TURF: 11-10-4-5-2

 

Belmont             ( Current ):31-143   ( $186.30 ) Beatable   Favorites    2-6  ( 33.3% )  Favorites  Win %: 50-143 ( 35% ) ( As of Sunday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 5-25      ( $30.40 )  Beatable   Favorites:   0-1  ( 0% )       Favorites  Win %:  8-23    ( 34.1% )

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Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  


Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout


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