SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 5/21 Pimlico - Preakness Stakes & UAE President Cup


Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Belmont Park, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Beatable Favorite - #8 Epicenter

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Graded Stakes - 5/21 - Pimlico - Preakness Stakes & UAE President Cup


Race 13 

1.Early Voting


3.Creative Minister

#5 EARLY VOTING returned off a bit of a freshening to lose by only a neck when well clear of the show horse in the Wood Memorial. As Brown has an embarrassment of riches, he did the smart thing in eschewing Louisville with this speedster, for a track that suits his running style perfectly. We always like when the Beyers go up, as the class & distance levels increase, and aforementioned shotcaller is three for three with his dirt stayers who crashed the party 40-50 days back at 7-1 of less ( not getting Lasix ), w/a sub category of 2-2 at the graded level ( $5, $3 & $6 ). Grab him by the tale to get the glory. #1 SIMPLIFICATION came along honestly to outrun his odds when closing out the Super in Ky., and slides in a dozen slots, while bringing in a 3:2-0-1 ledger when breaking from the innermost two slots. If you were to ask us our betting strategy today, it would be a substantial show bet on this one, in hopes the fave finishes off the board. #2 CREATIVE MINISTER has improved with each passing start, so who knows where this one's ceiling is.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: We see #8 EPICENTER as being a few points beind Simplification, so why would we accept favoritism?


      Race 14

1.Sniper De Monlau ( Fr ) A

2.Kissouur A

3.Proud American A

No joking here, but #5 SNIPER DE MONLAU (FR) A hasn't been seen in four April's Fools Days, and while we would normally steer clear of a runner like this, we're assuaged by the fact that this one is 2 for 3 off a break in the action ( one of one on the sand ), and this 10YO "Horse" ( You hang on to dem Escargots, buddy !! ) just may surprise in a wide open finale. #8 KISSOUR A has a 3:1-1-0 mark when going from 1X to 2X ( w/the tally coming at 37-1 ), and recently got the job done in his sole start when last to load. #2 PROUD AMERICAN A ( uncoupled entrymate with Sniper ) showed a new dimension when coming from off the pace to win at Sam Houston, & may appreciate the added ground. 


Belmont             ( Current ):24-114   ( $151.20 ) Beatable   Favorites    0-2  ( 0% )    Favorites   Win %: 36-114 ( 33.7% ) ( As of Thursday morning )

Graded Stakes   ( Current ): 3-21      ( $17 )       Beatable   Favorites:   N/A  ( N/A )   Favorites  Win %:  8-21     ( 38.1% )


Aqueduct Spring         ( Final ): 34-134   ( $317.10 ) Beatable   Favorites     2-8  ( 25% )    Favorites  Win %: 42-134  ( 31.3% ) 

Aqueduct Winter         ( Final ): 107-438 ( $926.20 ) Beatable  Favorites: 11-40 ( 27.5% )  Favorites Win %: 166-440 ( 37.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2021 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587       ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3253-16594 ($28,115.40)  Beatable Favorites : 403-1475( 27.3% )Favorite's Win %: 6248-16604 ( 37.6% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.7% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3348-17162 ($28,934.60)   Beatable Favorites : 418-1543( 27.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 6411-17265 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.7%  against a 16.6% takeout