SaratogaBets Handicapping - Aqueduct Selections and Analysis - 1/27


Profitable grand salami for us here yesterday, to go along with a $103 Ice Cold Exacta & a $21 Cold Double as well.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #7 Melting Snow

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.


Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( by clicking the image to the left ) and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, Parler @BrooklynCowboy, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


Aqueduct - 1/27


Race  1

1.Ukrainian Princess

2.Maize Loved Laffy

3.Joey the Fish 

#2 UKRAINIAN PRINCESS showed a nice "Z" pattern when beginning her working life last month ( losing eight lengths from the quarter to the half, before gaining 10 1/2 from that point to the line in finishing 3rd. Slight edge with a tidier sojourn. #5 MAIZE LOVED LAFFY has partaken in the superfecta in all three starts where she didn't go to her knees at the start, and jock got off the schneid with a double on Sunday. #3 JOEY THE FISH came from Siberia to fall short by a half'a length in a daylight clear placing in this race three weeks ago, and now gets the wonder drug for the first time. Could do with a tidier onset, but that's not Cancel's strong point, so we'll keep beneath. 


Race  2

1.Mon Petit Chou

2.Movie Moxie

3.Royal Meghan

#4 MON PETIT CHOU has been kept in jail since the snag three fortnights back, and after bringing up the rear that day, is brought back at exactly the same level by a barn that has a nice DRF Formulator stat in play. Over the last 1,826 days, Gus is a sweet 11:6-2-0-2 w/ freshly purchased mid level dirt stock off sabbaticals of 24-49 days, with healthy mutuels of $20, $7, $11, $12, $14 & $7. #3 MOVIE MOXY has been out of form since October, but is up for grabs for the first time and pick up the meet's leading rider. #6 ROYAL MEGHAN has hit the board in both 2nd off the L/O deals One of them in her lone pairing with today's helmsman ), and digs the trip.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 MELTING SNOW fills the bill, as Rudy Rod is 0-12 with all relevant categories.  NOTE: AS OF 10:33, DUE TO A SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3



3.Snowy Evening

#1 VAX has hot the board in all three tries over a fast track, and now gets the wonder drug for the first time. Sensible selection. #6 GRACEFULNESS gets her working papers today, and does such with a nicely tucked away bullet breeze on the worktab. Grey gal is a half to present day runner, Cotton ( 16:3-3-2-1, 161K ) who has closed out the exacta in both dirt attempts. Five of the six upstairs members of the family tree won their first and/or their second starts, and runner gets in light. #2 SNOWY EVENING has been away for quite some time, but has been transferred to a hot barn, and we like that there's no scary drop for one getting juice for the 1st time. 


Race  4

1.Patrick the Great


3.Reunion Tour

#3 PATRICK THE GREAT has immolated baccala in nearly every start to date, but makes his third start off the bench, and five year old rates the most timid of selections in a race that's difficult to embrace. #2 BERNARDINO has amassed a decent collection of adjusted figaros on the gramma, and is slightly better bred for today's initial try on the main. Lightly raced eight yr. old "horse" ( You protect those pistachios, buddy ! ) takes the biggest drop in the game here, but doubt there'll be any takers. #5 REUNION TOUR has outran his odds over the last triad of races ( hitting the board in each ), and that's no surprise for a barn doing good things of late ( 11:3-3-1 run with dashers off breaks of 6 months or less < 35-1, $10, $23 & $43 ). Can't fault those taking a favorable view. 


Race  5



3.Rossa Veloce 

#5 LEELOO has won three straight outside of stakes company, and owns a nice mark bot at this trip & over this strip. We like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit, and besting nine others when facing open foes for the first time is no small feat. Good guy Duggan on a psychotic 11:7-1-2-1 streak w/NYRA starters off breaks 1-62 days ( $5, $7 x 2, $14, $10, $18 & $6 ), and this one should be right there once again. #1 HYDRA shoots for the hat trick this afternoon, and given her proclivity for finding the winner's circle in Ozone Park ( as well as being a half length short of a 3 for 3 mark when first to load ), we'd say it's very doable. #3 ROSSA VELOCE is doing fine work this fall/winter, and it's hard to argue with that lovely "declining" mark of 23:7-4-2. 


Race  6

1.Mo Rewards


3.Salute to America

#8 MO REWARDS was eased last time out, but we've made money with runners like this in the past, and colt finds himself at his lowest level yet, while losing the eye cups and going from two turns to one -- which resulted in a troubled but decent showing the only other time that was attempted. #1 SPETTRO is another on the dropdown, and gets in with a feather. #2 SALUTE TO AMERICA was ambitiously spotted last time out, and now finds himself at the level of his runner up finish from two back. Can land a share.  NOTE: AS OF 10:37, DUE TO A SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7

1.Handsome Cat

2.Cees Get Degrees 

3.Life Changer

#1 HANDSOME CAT is four of nine at today's distance of ground ( oh for 23 at other trips ), 2 for 8 toting 120 or less ( 2 of 19 at 121+ ), and is 4-17 on a track marked "FST" ( in comparison to any and all other outings ). Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #2 CEES GET DEGREES ( uncoupled entrymate w/ the above ) is on a nice 6:3-2-1 streak of late, and found the line first the only time he hung out with the seagulls. Should be forwardly placed early on. #9 LIFE CHANGER has partaken in the super in his dozen starts at less than a mile, and that includes a win in his sole start when going in the gate last. 


Race  8

1.East Coast Girl

2.Tunnel Vision 

3.Helicopter Money

#3 EAST COAST GIRL showed marked improvement second time out, and while that could be attributed to the drop, Lasix, blinker addition, or weight break, we'll look at the 3 for 8 trainer stat which has Breen at just that with those of this ilk ( < 33 days ) at 6-1 or below ( $5, $7 & $13 ), and will put her up top. #1 TUNNEL VISION ( who should be no worse than 2nd here, for all you place punters out there ) owns a solid last race figaro and plunges. #2 HELICOPTER MONEY popped and stopped in the November bow, but drops & gets the "Big L". Eligible to show improvement.  NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Aqueduct            ( Current ):   27-121    ( $229.80 ) Beatable  Favorites:       1-4 ( 25% )  Favorites Win %:    46-121  ( 38% )( As of Friday morning )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2022 Final ) 74-465  ( $703.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-57 ( 31.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 140-414 (33.8%)  +/-: -24.3% against a 16.8% takeout  

Polytracks   2013-16 (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-22 (All Final):3564-17968 ($30,467.70)  Beatable Favorites : 425-1575( 27.1% )Favorite's Win %: 6773-18041( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.2%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 3648-18596  ( $31,280.20 )Beatable Favorites : 440-1641( 26.8% )Favorite's Win %: 6783-18285 ( 37.1% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout