Well, if you're going to have just one winner on the day, it may as well be of the $91 variety !! That's what happened to us yesterday, and when you add that one ( who was NEVER in doubt during the race ) in to $111 Nutella Fella on closing last year, that means we've gone back to back on our last two features in boxcar fashion !!
Oh yeah, toss in a $992 Rolling Double & a successful Beatable Favorite for good measure.
Congratulations to all who cashed out, and MANY thanks to those who paid it forward to charity afterwards.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #7 Dillinger Race 3 - #1 Steadfast Resolve ( only if his entrymate declares ) Race 9 - #10 Star of Mystery ( GB )
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.
| Race 1 | 1st -Martingale | 2nd -Reliable Lady | 3rd -Ascension |
#5 MARTINGALE returned off a five month respite to pick up 12% of the pot down in Joyzee about three weeks ago, and cuts back to one turn today, which is fine by us. The only time he did such on a fast track, a 70.3 was the end result, and that came without the use of Lasix, which is now part of the makeup. Jock upgrade in store today as well. #3 RELIABLE LADY has been pretty much that thus far in her career, as she's partaken in the superfecta in all three starts to date, and did such over two separate surfaces. Feel free to prorate the turf number accordingly, as she's not particularly well bred for the stuff, and should prove a main threat here. #6 ASCENSION trailed throughout when starting things out on 6/16, but draws ideally for today's initial dirt try, and we have no problems with throwing in a near half million dollar animal at 15 to 1 second time out.
| Race 2 | 1st -Giant's Fire | 2nd -Paschal Moon | 3rd -Stormquist |
#4 GIANT'S FIRE had a little bit of trouble at the onset last time out, and after making a solid move turning into the lane, petered out to finish 4th. Understandable drop in class this afternoon, and this chestnut chap is backed by a solid trainer statistic. Over the last five years, trainer has been a "Terra" with his mid level dirt stock off breaks of 25 to 46 days at 8-1 or beneath. He's a perfect five for six in that regards, and has a whopping ROI of more than six and a half bucks. #3 PASCHAL MOON has been kept jail since the claim by Jimmy Ferraro two months ago, and now returns back at the same level of the placing from that afternoon. There is a sensational best of 71 morning move on the docket for today's deal, and barn has done quite well with purchases the last few years. Should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there. #5 STORMQUIST completes our troika of selections that we will be looking at here, and has never been entered this cheaply. BEATABLE FAVORITE: We have absolutely no idea why #7 DILLINGER is listed as a 2-1 favorite.
| Race 3 | 1st -Passive Management ( Ire ) | 2nd -Steadfast Resolve | 3rd -Tom Collins |
#4 PASSIVE MANAGEMENT (IRE) gets his working papers today, and comes into this affair with tremendous turf pedigree in the family tree. The two members of the bloodlines that we were able to dig up got their initial wins and their first and second starts respectively, and the sky looks to be the limit with this fella. #1 STEADFAST RESOLVE has only lost by three lengths or so in both starts to date, and is another one with nice bloodlines, who makes his second start off the bench. #5 TOM COLLINS hasn't been an action since the fall, but returns with the miracle drug now, and is reunited with the pilot from his best performance from a speed figure standpoint. OFF TURF: 4-5-2-9-11(MTO) NOTE: AS OF 11:56 A.M. WEDNESDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, THE #1A WILL BE OUR SECONDARY SELECTION, AND THE #1 WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE IF HIS ENTRYMATE DECLARES,
| Race 4 | 1st -Yarrow | 2nd -Sesame Seed Bagel | 3rd -Twenty Six Black |
#6 YARROW is a fairly consistent critter, as this lightly raced gelding has hit the board in 12 of 15 starts to date. Aside from that, he owns an unblemished mark in 3rd off the layoff jammies on the Mellon, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 1,826 days, C-Squared is 7:4-1-1 with locally based turf dashers at this level who hit the board less than 68 days ago, that are seven to one or less & ridden by Joel. The winners in that sampling came back $7, $12, $8, and $10, and should be smack dab to have in the middle of things once again. #3 SESAME SEED BAGEL fared quite well in his initial turf try after being hesitant at the starting gate, and we see no reason to exclude off of that. #4 TWENTY SIX BLACK has yet to finish out of the triple in any sod sprint, and that includes a snappy runnerup finish directly ahead of a next out winter the only time he was in this type of a layoff spot. OFF TURF: 1-2-9(MTO)6-8(MTO)
| Race 5 | 1st -Disco Deano | 2nd -Kan't Beat the Rock | 3rd -Gangly |
#11 DISCO DEANO is confidently shipped down from Canandaigua County despite there being some soft spots for him up there, and we are digging the concept a little bit. After conducting a deep dive into this boy, we see that he is three for five in second off the layoff dirt deals, and is also two for three when breaking from the outermost two slots on the sand. As none of those races overlap, that makes him a cumulative five of eight in those important categories. That stands out quite favorably against his 4 for 24 mark and all other races, and jockey/trainer combo fare better together than apart. Bombs away ! #1A KAN'T BEAT THE ROCK has completed the triple in three straight outings, and sheds five lb's off the last while dropping in class. 8-1 looking fairly generous here. #4 GANGLY has been beset by some layoff lines, but this 7YO "horse" ( You hang on to your dangling participles buddy boy !!" ) has done nice work at today's distance of ground, and Johnny sees fit to hop on.
| Race 6 | 1st -Strengthnguidance | 2nd -Classic Time | 3rd -Replevin |
#8 STRENGTHNGUIDANCE showed some nice improvement from his first start to the followup, and Sano has a crisp 7:3-3-0-1 record with maiden special weight dirt stock who hit the board less than 22 days back, that are 10-1 or less while not getting the big "L". The winners returned $9, $6, and $20, and there is a subcat of one for one in this zip code. #10 CLASSIC TIME got smacked around a bit at the onset in the lidlifter, but showed some good mettle by finishing a nicely clear runner up that day. January foal draws a tad better today, and must be left in the mix. #9 REPLEVIN has a couple of nice workouts on the docket for the debut, and that's enough for us to include at 12-1.
| Race 7 | 1st -Drunk On Sake | 2nd -Our Country | 3rd -Mauritius |
#10 DRUNK ON SAKE was a bit overmatched when facing winners for the first time in a Grade 3 event downstate, but went coast to coast like butter and toast in the maiden breaker right here during Belmont week. Gelding is reunited w/ the pilot from that day, and from an itty bitty sampling, shedrow is 2 for 4 with optional turf routers who missed the money 8 to 22 days in the rear. The victors came back $61, and $9, and there is a subcategory of one for one with today's helmsman. #11 OUR COUNTRY hasn't been seen since a rallying win back in September, but has done decent work at this trip, and it's encouraging to see the pre-layoff pilot come back. #7 MAURITIUS has oodles of early zip, and is another who likes the trip. OFF TURF: 12-14(MTO)-4-1-11 NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Bells Beach | 2nd -Windy Walk | 3rd -Striker Has Dial |
We're not really feeling the heat here, so tread lightly. #6 BELLS BEACH was visually impressive when scoring second time out down in Louisville on the 1st of June, and the pedigree tells us that not only was that result likely not an aberration, but there should be some room for improvement as well. #2 WINDY WALK shoots for the hat trick today, and as she has shown marked improvement in going three for four after being winless in her first quartet, we'd say she deserves some respect here. #4 STRIKER HAS DIAL outran her odds in a big way when closing out the exacta at 29-1 up here on the 6th of June, and you can't underestimate the importance of having experience at this tricky setup.
| Race 9 | 1st -Baraye | 2nd - Ever So Sweet ( Ire ) | 3rd -Dancing Duchess |
#8 BARAYE went all the way in an off the turf event back in late May, and we like the versatility she's shown to date, as that was a third win under three different sets of circumstances. Jock comes in for the mount, and as she was a snappy second place finisher the only time she was in a third off the bench try, we feel her chances are pretty good here at double digit odds. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 EVER SO SWEET (IRE) returned off an elongated absence to make every call a winning one at the Big A on May 26th, and while a bounce is always possible in a second time Lasix scenario, we'd be silly to leave out. #3 DANCING DUCHESS fell short by only a neck the only time she set her hooves on firm ground, and that came against the boys, which made the slightly troubled effort all the more impressive. Of course, we love the declining record of 9:3-2-1 as well. OFF TURF: 10-7-11(MTO)-9-6 BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 STAR OF MYSTERY NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 10 | 1st -Adventurous Spirit | 2nd -Comanche Peak ( GB ) | 3rd -Over and Ollie |
#8 ADVENTUROUS SPIRIT has been ITM in all of his turf routes to date, but 175k purchase now has the white flag run up for the first time. When it comes to his mdclm. turfers going long, T.P. rolls right along in that regards, with those who are 1-2-3 off of layoffs of 29 to 67 days that are ridden by Irad 5 to 1 or less. He's four of four with that sort, and while 5/2 is difficult to swallow, we're not really feeling too much buzz coming from any of the other runners. #6 COMANCHE PEAK (GB) nearly blew up the tote board at 57-1 last out, and while we hate missing the wedding and going to the funeral, perhaps the light bulb stays on with this one. Cross entered yesterday, so check the changes. #7 OVER AND OLLIE has received the unkindest cut of all since besting only the chase ambulance in his return at CD. Toss in a drop, and a big time upgrade in the irons, and perhaps he can perk up a little bit here. OFF TURF: 2-4-6-8-10 NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Saratoga Summer ( current ): 1-11 ( $91 ) Beatable Favorites: 0-1 ( 0% ) Favorite's Win %: 3-11 ( 27.2% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout
