7/13 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Saratoga Selections

Well, we said "Bombs away !!" with our top selection in yesterday's 5th race, and we were right, as he got home fairly easily to the tune of $72 !!  That keyed two Rolling Doubles for us ( $238 & $211 ) along with a $535 Rolling Pick Three as well. Oh yeah...toss in a WHOPPING $524 Exacta Box in the nitecap, as well !!

We are guaranteed a flat bet profit until at least mid card next Saturday, and there was actually a point, where we we had 3 winners over our last 18 Saratoga races that paid $111, $91 & $72.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#4 DARE TO BREEZE all the way. #7 MEZCALIFORNIA draws ideally for today's lidlifter, and although the work tab doesn't quite get the heart thumping, the 392 Tomlinson for today's trip helps out a bit. Cross entered on Thursday, so check the changes. #3 GERLIN'S EMPIRE has a couple of decent morning moves for today's overture, and is another with decent pedigree for today's distance.

Kelso Stakes on tap, and we've included a five minute video homage' to one of the greatest ever, right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_PLfHw_W3p0 .  As for the race itself, we'll give a slim margin to #2 MYSTERIOUS NIGHT (IRE). This gelding from the Applebee Barn returned off a three and a half month absence to finish a lively runner up in the Poker right here, and historically we see he's one of two in true second of the layoff engagements. Our main man, Flava Flav is a perfect four of four for this outfit in routes, with the winners coming back $3, $4, $10, and $14, as well. #5 CARL SPACKLER (IRE) immolated some baccala in the aforementioned affair, but could do better in his primary third off the layoff spot. Note that this horse for the course is 2 of 3 right here. #1 CALL ME HARRY is another who digs this locale, and in a bit of an anomaly, draws the inside for the first time in his 33 race career.  OFF TURF: 6(MTO)-2-4-3-5  NOTE: AS OF 10:41, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-5-1.

#2 POPPY'S PRIDE is hiked in class for the 4th straight outing, and why not, as he is done quite well since the barn transition. 6YO has done well at this trip, over this strip, beneath today's pilot, and when first to load. Mild choice in a race with but one first draft toss out. #1 TOP GUNNER has been freshened up a bit for this, and we like the confident move up the ladder from the purchase price two starts go. Recognize that this jockey / trainer combination are a groovy four of six in routes, and just look at these prices: $12, $61, $7, and $28 !! #5 I GOT NO MUNNY hasn't been in action in a couple of Saint Patrick's days, but it's encouraging to see Iradhop on for today's return. Mixed signals, and it would behoove you to take a gander pre-race.

#4 KUNSHAN BRIDGE outran his parimutual offering quite nicely when completing the exacta at 40-1 up here, and as he's also done okay the only time he was in his second off the layoff scenario, we will lean his way in a competitive affair. #5 ABADIN is fleet afoot, and did some decent work here last year. Toss in some nice history beneath Looie, and you could do a lot worse than to include this one. #7 AGOO hasn't shown much in the last pair, but we like to be forgiving of pre and post layoff running lines, as perhaps something went amiss in the prior, and maybe they weren't fully cranked up for the return. Blinkers are now a part of the makeup, and we wouldn't be surprised to see some improvement at a decent price.  

#7 RAMBLIN' WRECK was a bit tardy to the party in his first start since some Cowboy's birthday back in the fall, but the number from that day came back okay, and the only time he was in a second off the bench engagement, a solid placing versus stakes foes was the end result. #1A UNIT ECONOMICS put it all together with a maiden breaking win down in Ozone Park a month back, and while a bounce is always possible in a second time equipment/medication change, we're thinking it's more of a case that the light bulb has come on completely. #4 HUNT BALL has done okay in both sod starts to date, and is as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF:11(MTO)-1-12(MTO)-2-9(MTO)

#7 STOLEN FUTURE was an honest enough third place finisher when going over softish ground for the first time back in mid June, but Ortiz sees fit to stick around, and as this Miss has proven to be better on firm footing, will give her a chance to move forward in today's third off the shelf deal. #9 QUICK POWER NAP almost went from zero to hero after a bumbling onset last time out, and we dig the declining mark of 6:3-2-1 at today's dx. of ground. #6 U SHOULD BE DANCING ( uncoupled barnmate with our secondary selection ) has always been a little bit of a fringe player, but gets a big time jock improvement this afternoon, & must be left in the mix because of such.  OFF TURF: 4-2-6-5-9  NOTE: AS OF 10:05 A.M TUESDAY, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-11-9.

#2 MOMENT'S NOTICE takes her first afternoon trek to the frontside today, and this boy is a half to two runners who got their primary win in their first and second starts respectively. Additionally, of the five upstairs members of the family tree that we were able to unearth, we saw that they all got their initial tally within their first three outings. From a trainer stat point of view, C-Squared is four of five with locally based "dirsters" at this level who are not in receipt of the wonder drug, that are ridden by today's pilot. The winners came back $5, $8, $13, and $16, and that stat becomes a perfect four for four with those at 7-1 or less. ( We add that in, has this column has been written before the odds came up. ) #4 FLOODLITES is another one becoming a professional this afternoon, and does such with a bullet gate move on the ledger, something that always merits inclusion. $35,000 bred animal went for nearly 11 times that much at Keeneland last year, and the 391 Tomlinson figure is solid enough. #5 ASLEEP AT NIGHT was a decent runnerup finisher right out of the box, and we see no reason to exclude.

#10 HURRICANE NELSON was doing some fine work last year before being sent to the sidelines for nearly eight months. Fitness is obviously a question, but trainer has done just fine with those returning off of lengthy hibernations, and colt now gets the "Big L" for the first time. Examine pre race. #3 UPSTANDING makes his debut today, and does such with a second best of 61 gate move over this oval 16 days back. This is the first foal to race out of a stakes placed dam who was 2-9 on the dirt, and could be any kind. #7 COMMUTED rallied with a flourish to complete the triple at 13-1 down in Louisville, and the top flight bloodlines tell us that result was probably not a fluke. Cross-entered tomorrow at the Pea Patch, so check the changes.

#7 GEORGIE W returned off of nearly a full calendars' absence to pick up 12% of the pot in a near identical spot down at CD, and in a bit of a puzzling move, has the blinkers removed this afternoon. We like when a trainer is displaying confidence in making an equipment or a medication change after a solid effort, and add in the fact that Irad Ortiz gets on, and you have the looks of a live runner here. #4 MAGICAL WAYS has been a part of the superfecta in five of his last six, and catches firm ground for the first time. While we like Romero, how can we argue with the fact that Prat takes over now. #8 IRISH ACES is a bit of a fragile sort, but owns a modicum of back class, and is one of two in second off the l/o spots.  OFF TURF: 7-10-2-8-9

#9 EVVIE JETS has become a bit of a crowd favorite over the last two years, as this $80,000 claim has danced with some salty gals since then, and more often than not gives a solid account of herself. Don't read too much into the fact that she hasn't hit the board in her two starts this year, as the Louisville event made her 4:0-0-0 on a course that isn't firm, and she by no means disgraced herself in fighting the good fight when losing by just three parts of a length in the Grade One Just a Game. Mare has an unblemished three for three record in third off the layoff situations, and that stands out quite favorably against her 4 for 22 mark in all other heats. You know why we like this horse? Since her third start nearly four years ago, she has gone 23:7-6-2-4 while earning about 800 large -- and has NEVER been favored in any of those events. THAT'S a race horse. #1 MOIRA, on the other hand, has a propensity for burning baccala, but is a neck shy of being two for two off a sabbatical, and one of those events came the only time she was first to load. Will likely need to find a seam late. #10 CHILI FLAG (FR) has won three straight, and four of her last five. She comprises 1/5th of the Chad Brown uncoupled entry, and as he was recently quoted as saying the overall quality of racing in Saratoga has diminished over the last few years, the fact alone that he has 50% of the entrants in this half million dollar race, had many people chuckling, to say the least.  OFF TURF: 1-3-11(MTO)-5-7

#5 THREE ECHOES has displayed some decent mettle in both starts to date, as after gamely squeezing through a tight spot to pick up the sheepskin right out of the box, she followed that up by duking it out a bit off a quick opening quarter in the Tremont here, last month. The speed figure from that secondary affair was higher then the bow, and that's never an easy thing to accomplish. From a trainer stat point of view, The As Man more than doubles his normative 18% batting average when it comes to those fitting all this exact criteria off breaks of 24 to 50 days, at 7-1 or under, ( ridden by any jockey ). The winners returned $8, $6, $5, and $2, and we seem to be landing on this pilot quite often this afternoon. #8 MO PLEX was a visually impressive victor when winning by nearly a pole at first asking, and as he draws the outside once again, how can we leave out ? #1 MENTEE went coast to coast like butter and toast in winning his first start, but had an ideal placement that day, and now will be hard pressed from the outside, due to his inside placement.   NOTE: AS OF 10:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

Difficult finale to decipher here, so we'll go with what we consider to be a sensible selection but by no means a cinch. #7 THREE ZERO has hit the board in eight consecutive outings, and although today is a precipitous hike in class off of the Hallandale Beach win, we like the fact that this notorious nibbler did in fact get the job done after more than a year and a half of minor check earning. Jock/Trainer combination do better when in tandem than apart, and this one is the meekest of selections. #2 DR OSERAN is available for purchase for the first time today, and finished third the only time she was in this type of a layoff spot. #4 WAR TERMINATOR totes the lightest impost of his career, and has been a part of the superfecta in both third off the layoff jamborees.  OFF TURF: 6-2-12(MTO)-9-16(MTO)

Saratoga Summer ( Current ):            2-21   ( $162.50 )Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50% )   Favorite's Win %:  5-21     ( 23.8% )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% )    Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring  ( Final ):                7-47      ( $31.20 )  Beatable Favorites: N/A                 Favorite's Win %: 19-47   ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct  Spring( Final ):                28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% )    Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% ) 

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):                85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout