7/14 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Saratoga Selections

No words today.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #3 Value Engineering

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

#8 LA CARA showed precipitous improvement when being more aggressively handled second time out, as she was a lively runner up that day in nearly doubling the prior speed figure in the process. While a regression is always possible off of that, even one of 20% or so would still make her a major player here, especially from today's outside draw. From a DRF Formulator point of view, shedrw is 7:3-3-0 with locally based dirt runners at this level who hit the board less than 46 days ago that are 7-1 or less ( no Lasix ). The winners came back $12, $8, and $3, and it looks like they'll have to grab her by the tail to get the glory. #6 PRACTICAL LOV gets her working papers this afternoon, and went for more than three and a half times the stud fee at Ocala earlier this year. Mott tightened the screws with this one back on the 5th, and the 436 Tomlinson figure is quite hefty for this January foal. #1 KIMCHI CAT was a well beaten but well clear runner up first time out, and the top flight bloodlines tell us the result that day was likely not aberration.

#1A BLOWN COVER hasn't been seen since being bought at Keeneland 3 months back, but despite the money burning performance that day, we like to see that there's no scary drop. Colt goes one turn for the first time this afternoon, and with the 395 Tommy on display, we're thinking he'll do just fine at it. Slight edge. #7 DAD'S GOOD RUNNER was a drawing away victor last time out, and posted a career best numero in the process. Gelding has always done honestly enough in second off the bench deals, & is a threat to go all the way once again if able to get loose early. #4 TIVY is a notorious nibbler ( 17:1-4-9 ) and looks like a logical unders candidate. Cross entered yesterday, so check the scratch board.  NOTE: AS OF 7:11 P.M. SUNDAY WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

#6 TWISTED FILIGREE hasn't been seen in a couple of Independence Days, but was doing fine work way back when, and has since received the unkindest cut of all. For a trainer staff point of view, Weaver is a dreamy 4:3-1-0 with sod sprinters who picked up the diploma more than 46 days ago. Those who found the line first paid $32, $13, and $7, and it's always heartening to see the pre layoff pilot return. #2 RUSSI has hit the board in six straight, and what the hell is wrong with that? #1 ALLIED ATTACK has shown diddly poo in the last pair, but we like to go three starts back to find something positive, and that April effort was solid enough at 13-1.  OFF TURF: 4-2-12(MTO)-7-5

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 MIGHTY MADISON employed a change of tactics when last seen down in Louisville, and overcame some trouble to get the job done at a 7-1 offering. Shedrow always does well here, and as a matter of fact they are three for four with optional dirt entrants who won 25 to 50 days back that are now receiving the wonder drug. Should be no worse than third for all of you who like to grind out a show profit. #2 SIGNAL FROM NOISE is a lightly raced five year old who has finished out of the money just once from her eight outings, and the ol' gray mare has blinkers removed for today's second off the bench deal. Brown has the same win rate as the above when he's leaving the hood on the back side for his dirt dashers who hit the board < 47 days in the past. #1 MOSIENKO has done decent work at this trip and over the strip, and finds herself back at the same level claimed from back on May 12th.

This looks to be a tidy but tight maiden affair, and should be fun to watch !  #1 MILITARY ROAD has burned a bit of baccala thus far in his career, but displayed substantial improvement in the Beyer department from his first dirt route to the next, and also closed out the triple behind two next out victor's in his only start when first to load. Should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there, but was in fact entered on Friday, so it would behoove you to check the changes pre race. #7 PROTECTIVE sure is battle tested, as she comes in today off of three straight Graded Stakes tries, with two of them resulting in triple completing finishes. Pletcher charge sheds a whopping 8 pounds off a troubled Belmont try, and looms the main danger to the above. #3 IT'S A MIRACLE came along honestly enough to pick up 12% of the pot right here last month, and did such a solid parimutual offering. We are not seeing him with a shot of upsetting the top selection, but just may have enough to close out the Exacta over Protective.

We don't have the best of reads on this deal, so tread lightly. #1 PISCIOTTA (GB) came along belatedly to complete the superfecta in her Lexington debut back in April, and has been given a bit of time to figure things out since that day. The three returnees who finished directly in front of her that afternoon came back to finish first, second and fourth in their next engagements, but this miss will most definitely have to find some room late in the game to get the job done. #10 HOLLYWOOD DREAM didn't display a whole heck of a lot in the autumn lidlifter, but is bred to do a little bit better than that, and is now in receipt of the"Big L". #2 COIF hung up an okay BSF when going over the blades for the first time, and picks up flavor Flav in the irons.  OFF TURF: 1-4-13(MTO)-3-7

#3 BATTLE OF NORMANDY has earned back a fair amount of bread from that half million dollar purchase price from across the street three years back, and although he still has a bit of wood to chop, we like the confidence building placement at the Big A month ago, as he went all the way versus A1X foes. Shug charge is now in a third of the bench spot for the first time, and recognize the tally right out of the box in his soul start on a firm Inner course. #2 TRULY QUALITY was visually impressive when besting allowance competitors at the end of May, and while you have to be cautious of a little bit of a bounce, we'd be remiss in excluding. #4 SIX MINUS may plod along for a piece.  OFF TURF: 5-10-7-11(AE)-1

#10 STREET SWAGG was up the track at triple digit odds three weeks ago, but had a terrible onset that afternoon, and is now switched back to the main. While the last start on the sandy stuff didn't quite get the heart thumping, the two dirt engagements prior to that were sufficient enough to give this one a legit chance at what will most likely be a decent price. #1 SKI COUNTRY goes one turn to two this afternoon, and the last time this grey gelding tried that, a snappy three length win was the end result. #8 THANK YOU JON goes two turns for the first time this afternoon ( or any other afternoon for that matter ) but must be tossed in the hopper because of the nice placing at this level two fortnight's back.

Today's featured race is named after Quick Call, and for those not familiar with that animal, he was pretty much one of the early poster boys of thoroughbred aftercare. We've enclosed and article which was published right after his passing a few years back, and highly recommend you delve into it https://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/236288/trf-legend-quick-call-euthanized-at-35 . As for the race itself, we'll side with the #9 SET. This one is two for three over firm ground, and although we're not enamored with the way he played the fade at Penn National last time out, we have no problems with the cut back in distance this afternoon. Don't expect this one to necessarily be on the choo choo, as that's a misnomer with speedy routers going shorter, but just make sit a decent trip, nonetheless. #3 FANDOM is an unblemished 2 of 2 in the States, and although he's been beset by back-to-back layoff lines, the new outfit knows a thing or two, and we like this one's ability to send or read a bit. #5 MANSA MUSA got up in time to win versus weaker, but as that came on the Mellon, we have no problem with including.  OFF TURF: 6-16(MTO)-2-5-15(AE)

#8 BARNSTORMING has bested but one in his last duet, but overcame a rough start to finish third behind two next out winners the only time he tried the gramma just before that. Could be a sneaky good price here given the last two running lines, and we have no problem with swinging away on a horse with some possible hidden good form. #7 WRITE OFF JERRY ( "It's a write off Jerry! The post office just writes it off !!" ) is a clever cleverly monikered equine by Practical Joke, and can't fault those taking a favorable view. #1 LA MAQUINA is one of two on firm ground, and may have needed the most recent.  OFF TURF: 2-12-1-6-1A(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 VALUE ENGINEERING

Saratoga Summer ( Current ):            3-33   ( $165.50 )Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50% )   Favorite's Win %:  11-33     ( 33.3% )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% )    Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring  ( Final ):                7-47      ( $31.20 )  Beatable Favorites: N/A                 Favorite's Win %: 19-47   ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct  Spring( Final ):                28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% )    Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% ) 

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):                85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout