7/17 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Saratoga Selections - Steeplechase Day !!

Pair of chalky winners on a day filled with the stuff on Sunday, but we did get a $100 cold Triple, and a $279 Exacta Reverse, which came in only because our 25-1 top choice was disqualified from first.

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.

First race of the day is the A.P. Smithwick Memorial and it's a fairly competitive rendition. #2 ABAAN is what we love about Steeplechase racing. This gelding was a Graded Stakes winner on the flat, while banking a bunch of bread in the process. When things didn't pan out in his first two starts last year, he made a rapid transition to the jumps. All he's done since then, is secure a placing the first time going vertical, before following that up with a quartet of tallies. From a trainer stat point of view, Dalton has won with all three of her stakes jumpers not getting Lasix or breaks of more than 64 days. The winners came back $16, $3, and $10. Looking good once again. #1 ZIGGLE POPS (GB) gave a decent account of himself in the Grade One event down in Ozone Park last month, and as his other start on firm ground yielded a going away win, we have no problems with including. #7 PICKANUMBER (IRE) comes off the boat on a four of five race winning streak, and discount the leading trainer in the country at your own peril.

#4 CARARRA has outran her odds more often than not, comes in today making her third start off the respite, and is supported by an outstanding DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 60 months, barn McPeaks at the right time with 3YO maiden special weight dirt routers who hit the board less than 50 days ago and are running sans blinkers. That study includes those getting the wonder drug, that are written by good guy Brian Hernandez. Trainer is 5 fer 7 with that sort, and the winners came back an honest $5 x 2, $6, $8 & $38. #6 FAZOOLS ( digging the name ) came from out of Siberia to lose by only a neck down at the shore in the June overture, and the 393 Tommy tells us that result was likely not a fluke. Flavor Flav is off to a fine start at the stand, and this one is looking good. #5 REFUSE TO LOSE showed decent improvement second time out, and is the only one signed on with the all important race over the track.  NOTE: AS OF 12:31, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 2 & 1 WILL BE OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

#7 BELLACOSE hasn't shown much of a willingness to fight in the mornings thus far, but we are assuaged by the fact that 'Miah is four of six with those fitting all of this criteria @ 11to 1 or less ridden by any jock. That category is for the last two annums, and the victors paid $10, $4 X 2, and $3. Slight edge in a wide open race. #6 PRACTICALLY SUMMER has had the screws tightened a bit in her last two workouts, and 433 Tomlinson figure positively leaps off the page. Could be any kind. #1 VEHEMENTE is by a red hot sire in Vekoma, and totes along a stopwatch bursting 46 flat gate move on a track labeled 'good' six days ago. Obviously the break will be the factor at this short distance.

#6 PEBBLE LANE returned off a 15 month hibernation to best only the chase ambulance at Aqueduct a few weeks ago, but as that race came on the turf, we're 99.9% sure it was merely used as a prep to get some bottom into her for today, given the poor pedigree for such. Blinkers are now a part of the makeup in today's second off the shelf engagement, and gray gal found the line first the only time she had a for sale sticker attached to her butt. From a trainer stat point of view, nice lad David Duggan is 8:4-3-0-1 when going green to brown with his sprinters off absences of 47 days or less. There is an ROI of $4.33 in that regards, and we are expecting this one to be on the choo choo early. #5 SHARPER GAL owns a win and a placing in both starts when made available for purchase, and could improve off the recent disappointment. #3 PERMED ( Out of 'Curled', you get it? ) completes our troika of selections on the plunge.

#6 NO SHOW SAMMY JO (GB) has done nothing but improve since starting things out last year, and we like the grittiness shown in getting up in time off the lengthy sabbatical. While a bounce is always possible off of that, we see that this barn is four for six with sod starters who won 52 to 67 days ago that are not utilizing blinkers ( 5 to 1 or less ). The winners paid $10, $6, $5, and $4, and gal is reunited w/ the pilot of her maiden breaker last year. #1 A PRIMERA VISTA is the clear speed of this deal, and when you factor in the three for four mark at today's distance of ground, they will likely have to grab her by the tail to get the glory. #5 PROMISEHER AMERICA was a cracker jack runner up when going over the blades for the first time, and should be left in the mix.  OFF TURF: 4-2-5-7-11(MTO)   NOTE: AS OF 12:35, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 10(MTO)-11(MTO)-1

#10 SASSY ALLIE didn't show a whole heck of a lot first time out, but switches over to the green stuff today, and although the pedigree is unproven for such, we see that the maternal granddam was 6 for 31 when racing on synthetic and lawn, and that one's daughter was a total of 3 for 16 when doing the same. Couple of things to like, including that Irad sees fit to stick around for today's drop in class. #6 PARADE RING is another one now up for grabs, and her best effort came right here last year. #3 BELLIQEUX gets a jockey upgrade off the most recent, and may land a share.  OFF TURF: 1-4-6-10-11   NOTE: AS OF 12:39, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-3-12(MTO)

This looks like a good race to go grab yourself a $16 taco. However ... #1 I'M BUZZY is claim protected despite being out of jail after the June 16th purchase, and we actually consider this a slight drop in class off of that third place finish. Mare sheds 5 lb.'s while sliding in a slot, and our main man gets legged up here. #6 JACKIE THE JOKER comes in today off of snazzy win back in June, and we like that the pre-claim pilot returns. #10 THEREASILVERLININ was a drawing away winner the only time she was in a second layoff situation, and we positively love the declining mark of 9:5-3-0.

#9 BEING BETTY missed getting all the marbles by just a noggin' at 13-1 last out, and Serpe won this race last year when going short to long with a gal who hit the board last time out that was helmed by today's jock. That winner returned 20 clams, so hopefully history can repeat itself. #1 TOUR JETE is a maiden facing winners here, but the bloodlines for today's surface transition are honest enough, and jockey/trainer combo have done exceptionally well together. #5 CAP FERRAT went coast to coast like butter and toast in the Hallandale Beach lidlifter, and while we're not sure she'll dig the gramma, we'd be remiss in excluding because of the early hoof shown that day.  OFF TURF: 7-11(MTO)-2-3-6   NOTE: AS OF 12:43, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-4-1

#2 LUNA LOVE has failed to finish in the first half of a field, but draws snugly this afternoon, and the adjusted figaro from the last troubled trip puts her in the upper echelon in this humdrum nightcap. #4 THE TACO LADY takes the biggest drop in the land, and has a shot if able to get back to the penultimate effort. #8 AMERICAN KESTREL is another who can be purchased for the first time, and brings along a couple of decent Beyers for the turf.  OFF TURF: 9-10-13(AE)-3-7   NOTE: AS OF 12:47, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 14-15(MTO)-1A

Saratoga Summer ( Current ):            5-43   ( $176.20 )Beatable Favorites: 1-2   ( 50% )   Favorite's Win %:  16-43     ( 37.2% )( As of Wednesday morning )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% )    Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring  ( Final ):                7-47      ( $31.20 )  Beatable Favorites: N/A                 Favorite's Win %: 19-47   ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct  Spring( Final ):                28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% )    Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% ) 

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):                85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4241-20632 ($34,946.80) +/-: -15.3% against a 16.1% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 474-1772( 26.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 7945-21369( 37.2% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4261-21247 ( $35,897.30 ) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.6% takeout