Let's get the week started out well, shall we !!
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -C Suite Boy | 2nd -Shakin the Belle | 3rd -Forced Errors |
#3 C SUITE BOY has fared pretty well in both starts to date, and although the class level for the most recent was on the low side, we always feel that the speed figure tells the tale, and his was definitely a goodie. The winner from that day got the job done when next in action, essentially replicating the prior speed figure, and jock has done extremely well for this outfit. #4 SHAKIN THE BELLE has partaken in the superfecta in his last sectet, and is reunited with Flavor Flav. #2 FORCED ERRORS has been kept in jail since the claim at the end of August, and returns back at that same level while getting an upgrade in the saddle. Needn't be much to make an impression here.
| Race 2 | 1st -Because the Night | 2nd -Anthracite | 3rd -Arrebato |
| Race 3 | 1st -First Glimpse | 2nd -Allaboutthemoney | 3rd -Giroovin |
#2 FIRST GLIMPSE is halved in price from the snag two back, and runs sans eye cups for the first time in his 35 race career. Gelding found the line first the only time he was entered this cheaply, but the connections will have to win this race in order to barely break even on the purchase. Mixed signals. #4 ALLABOUTTHEMONEY takes the obligatory hike in class after being bought for a dime 19 days in the year, and is an obvious factor if able to get back to that effort. #6 GIROOVIN is wheeled right back after the next the last place finish on Friday, & must be left in the mix being at an all time low. Recognize that his best work has come beneath Franco.
| Race 4 | 1st -Dignified Response | 2nd -Calvin's Ride | 3rd -Salvation |
#4 DIGNIFIED RESPONSE didn't show a whole heck of a lot when getting his working papers towards the end of August, but January foal was a bit tardy to the party that day, and got smacked around as well. Eligible to move forward with that under his girthstrap, and a better pilot at the helm. #5 CALVIN'S RIDE gets off the rail after a humdrum bow, and with Dynaformer in the family tree, we have no qualms with tossing in, in what is a suspect field. #7 SALVATION was a well beaten but decently clear runner up at first asking, and the one who finished directly behind him that day got the job done when next in action, improving in the speed figure department by 11.3%. OFF TURF: 4-2-12-14(AE)-3
| Race 5 | 1st -Reflexivity | 2nd -#2 Sassy Allie | 3rd -Linarite |
#5 REFLEXIVITY went coast to coast like butter and toast when facing conditional platers last time out, and ended up in a better barn afterwards. There are no world beaters signed on today, so should be able to handle the class hike. #1 SASSY ALLIE has done nothing but improve over each passing start, culminating with a dead game maiden breaker at this trip a week ago. Obvious threat if able to get another clean break. #2 LINARITE is a professional turf nibbler, as the 16:1-5-8-1 mark belies. Leaving underneath until she proves us wrong. OFF TURF: 4-6-2-5-1
| Race 6 | 1st -Dark Devil | 2nd -Houlton | 3rd -Glint |
#6 DARK DEVIL has never missed the board, so right off the bat, who are we to rock that boat ? Jockey/Trainer combination is a potent one, and as he went from a 64 to a 70 from his first start on a glib surface to his second one, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. #1 HOULTON is another one was done nothing but improve on the sandy stuff, but will have to navigate a trip from today's inside slot, given his running style. #7 GLINT outran his odds quite nicely when completing the triple of 34-1 last time out, and cuts back from two turns to one for today's third start off the bench.
| Race 7 | 1st -Piper's Factor | 2nd -Take Me to Church ( Ire ) | 3rd -The Process |
#3 PIPER'S FACTOR has done quite a nice job for himself thus far, as this $10,000 homebred has earned more than 21x that amount for his connections, with a big chunk of it coming in a win Nordes de Lignes on the 31st of August. The bloodlines tell us the result that day was likely not an aberration, and may get overlooked a little bit in this spot. #2 TAKE ME TO CHURCH (IRE) experienced what could be a very traumatic thing for a horse, having falling in one of the lowlights of the meet upstate, but 3YO has worked well since, and Johnny V. is enticed to ride. #4 THE PROCESS had some traffic trouble in the above mentioned affair, and as that was completely understandable should be left in the mix given the ascension uf the Beyer ladder in his turf starts before then. OFF TURF: 9-2-8-4-1
| Race 8 | 1st -Moonscape | 2nd -Tam I Am | 3rd -Not the First Time |
#10 MOONSCAPE went for more than five times the stud fee at Keeneland last year, and the 335 Tommy is solid enough for today's turf debut. Jock is off to a flying start at the meet, and of course we like today's outside draw. #7 TAM I AM put forth an honest showing in the end of August curtain raising, but may have outran her pedigree that day, so we will leave beneath, especially as she's likely to be overbet. #6 NOT THE FIRST TIME is another well bred firster, and is is good as any for the show dough. OFF TURF: 10-5-1-4-9
Aqueduct Fall: 19-105 ( $109.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-4 ( 25% ) Favorite's Win %: 37-105 ( 35.5% )
Saratoga Summer ( Final ): 85-410 ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites: 3-17 ( 17.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 136-410 ( 33.3% )
Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% ) Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )
Saratoga Spring ( Final ): 7-47 ( $31.20 ) Beatable Favorites: N/A Favorite's Win %: 19-47 ( 40.4% )
Aqueduct Spring( Final ): 28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% ) Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% )
Aqueduct Winter ( Final ): 85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4316-21042 ($35,798.90) +/-: -14.9% against a 16% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 477-1789( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8081-21779( 37.1% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4346-21657 ( $36,749.40 ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout
