10/5 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

 

---

Today's Beatable Favorite(s):

---

Please visit the Old Friends at Cabin Creek website ( https://oldfriendsatcabincreek.com ) and consider helping out, as every little bit counts! I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

#7 IRON SIGHT begins his working life this afternoon, and well bred firster went for four times the 100K stud fee up north two years ago, so is obviously well meant. The 374 Tommy is honest enough, and his worktab is solid as well. Barn has a tidy but tight 4:2-2-0 mark with locally based firsters at this level who are in receipt of the wonder drug, and ridden by Flavor Flav. The returns came back $15 and $6, and obviously, we dig the draw. #4 TOMORROW'S WISH finished in the back half of the pack at first asking, but jockey/trainer combination do okay together, and fella deserves another chance. #2 LUCA ON POINT ( uncoupled entrymate with our top choice  is another one with decent bloodlines, and totes a snazzy worktab as well.

#7 MONTE AVI hasn't shown a whole heck of a lot in either start to date, but takes the biggest drop in class off a tough sojourn, and it's encouraging to see the pilot stick around. $30,000 auction purchase seems properly spotted now, & needn't be much to get the job done versus these. #6 SARATOGA WARRIOR immollated some baccala at first asking, but got smacked around at the onset of his debut back in July, and is another one taking the plunge. #10 BOOKITWITHHADDAD completes our troika of selections sliding down the ladder, and has recently lost his procreating abilities. Could park up today, as it would definitely get our attention. 

#7 QUICK TO ACCUSE had his quest for the hat trick snapped when taking another shot at two turns up in Saratoga, and after that disappointment was given a month off the work tab. Coach is 4:1-1-1-1 off a true break in the action, and barn is off to a sensational start at this stand. Mild choice in a race with but one first draft elimination. #2 DAUFUSKIE ISLAND has been camera shy for the last 15+ months, but is still claim protected despite the recent disappointment, and seems like a decent "unders" candidate with these. #5 SILVER SATIN ( cross entered on Thursday, so check the changes ) has won three of his last four, and showed a different dimension when going all the way towards the end of August. Nice jockey change in play as well.

#5 NATURAL HARBOR only bested one horse and the chase ambulance last time out, and is now dropped 12 large in making his first start for the new connections. The good news, is that he was a well clear runnerup the only time he was in a third off the bench engagement, and barn does quite well with recent acquisitions. #1 AIR SHOW is two for six when first to load, and the 5 for 18 local ledger stands out quite favorably against his 1 of 18 mark otherwise. six year old goes from an apprentice to a journeyman, and could be coming late with any sort of peace to cut into. #6 SUPER CHIEF rounds out the top three.

#1 DESVIO has gone 57-79-80-80 in all his turf starts to date, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. What we like about that, is that the gray gelding accomplished such while increasing in class levels along the way, and it's always good to see the pilot to come in for the call in a race like this. May be overlooked by the local snobs. #6 EL REZEEN has improved in a big way since blinkers became a part of the makeup, as the back to back tallies signal that there just maybe even more room for improvement with this one. #3 CARSON'S RUN comes in off of a threesome of career best figaro's, and may be rolling late with any sort of quick fractions up front.  OFF TURF: 4-2-11(MTO)-1-10(MTO)

#4 MAYA PRINCE has always been a fairly consistent sort, and is given the acid test this afternoon in facing Graded Stakes competition for the first time. Gelding sheds 64 oz. of a troubled showing down in Virginia, and quite often horses with speed figures just below the next set of 'tens' ( such as 88 & 89 like this one ) have a tendency to be overlooked a bit parimutually. May sit a sweet trip. #2 MISCHIEVOUS ANGEL is 3 of 5 in sod sprints, and two for two with Irad astride. Can't fault those who are taking a liking to this one. #3 OUTLAW KID has the sort of declining mark we like to see ( 16:6-4-1 ), and doesn't need to bring his track with him has he started on 11 different ovals in 16 outings to date. Our main man hops on, and should be right in the thick of things once again.  OFF TURF: 5-8-9-1-2

#6 PARADISE CITY looked fairly professional when picking up the sheepskin down in Hallandale Beach on Labor Day weekend, and although the pedigree is still a bit unproven, we like that the connections have kept this one fairly quiet on the work tab since, with the exception of a snappy breeze at Palm Meadows. Given the running style shown at first asking, you feel a stalking trip just may be in the works. #5 SCOTTISH LASSIE is a maiden facing winners here, but that's not as relevant as one might think, and sometimes horses in this type of race can improve by leaps and bounds. Could complete the McKinzie exacta. #1 SNOWYTE is another winless missy facing stakes competition, and has blinks affixed for the first time, which is a move this outfit does okay with.

#9 EXECUTIVE ORDER was extremely impressive when winning in going away fashion at the end of August upstate, and gets some nice outside placement once again for today's stretchout. Slight edge. #8 COLONEL BOB was another going away victor when beginning his career 47 days in the rear, and totes along a best of 23 bullet breeze for today's followup. #7 SMOKEN WICKED is definitely the most battle tested runner of this bunch, and with the upwards arrow alongside of his speed figures, who knows how high he can go, in this competitive rendition of the Champagne.

#3 TRANSACTIONAL (GB) didn't show much when returning off a 16 month hibernation, but was all out in the followup when being put up for sale for the first time, while winning by just a honker. Gelding is protected against being bought this afternoon, and while a bounce is always possible off of the last, we're going to give him a tepid nod in a race that's difficult to hug. #6 NOSTALGIC ONE was up the track with no palpable excuse down in Franklin, but went back to back just prior to that and deserves a shot to make amends. #10 MICKEY SHILLELAGH came along nicely to lose by just a length down in Maryland last out, and did such a 23 to 1. May grabr a piece once again.  OFF TURF: 9-11-1-16(MTO)-15(AE)

#3 OFF SCRIPT has burned a bit of bread in both starts to date, but you can't argue with the Beyer's garnered in those events, as well as the fact that being January bred, he has a maturity advantage over those that have already raced. This is by no means a cakewalk, but looks good once again. #1 USHA has hit the board in each and every start, but those were some small fields out west, and we'll be leave beneath with today's inside placement in an overflow field. #6 BAM'S BLISS KISS gave a solid account of herself when setting most of the fractions before slightly fading to third in the turf debut up in the Adirondacks, and we're thinking she's going to do even better on the dirt. Watch out !!

#4 RUSSI has been just about as consistent as can be since last July, as he's been in the money each and every time, including three solid performances on the outer. He has a tendency to nibble a bit, but the overall body of work is enough for us to place him upstairs. #3 ICY FLAVOR hasn't been seen since scoring back in April, and as they don't give too many vacations in this game, you'd have to think something happened that afternoon. Hard to leave out, but it would behoove ya' to take a gander pre race. #1A MAXWELL ESQUIRE overcame a rough journey to pick up 12% of the pot in a near identical spot on the 1st of September, and seven yr. old "horse" ( It will be "smart" of you to watch out for the vet, "Maxwell !" can fare even better with a cleaner trip.  OFF TURF: 9-6-3-2-5

#6 COMANCHE PEAK has had a couple of ugly running lines of late, but after getting smacked around at the onset last out, was 26 lengths back at the quarter, before gaining more than half of that back at the finish. Four yr. old got roughed up in the start before that as well, but we like to go back three running lines to find something positive, as we feel it's a good way to ferret out some value. That being said, the adjusted 76.2 on June 21st is a number that would most definitely stand out here. Price play!  #12 MIDWAY LIGHTS plunges & may appreciate the surface change. #1A STEADFAST RESOLVE has an honest enough resume', and from an itty bitty sampling, Weaver is two of two with maiden claiming sod routers ridden by Ortiz, who were in the money  17 to 67 days in the past.   OFF TURF: 6-3-4-7-1

Aqueduct Fall:                        19-105    ( $109.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-4 ( 25% )     Favorite's Win %:   37-105    ( 35.5% ) ( As of Thursday morning )

Saratoga Summer ( Final ):     85-410  ( $852.10 ) Beatable Favorites:  3-17  ( 17.7% )  Favorite's Win %:  136-410 ( 33.3% )

Aqueduct Spring/Summer ( Final ): 66-292 ( $454.70 )Beatable Favorites: 4-10 ( 40% )    Favorite's Win %: 118-292 ( 40.4% )

Saratoga Spring  ( Final ):                7-47      ( $31.20 )  Beatable Favorites: N/A                 Favorite's Win %: 19-47   ( 40.4% )

Aqueduct  Spring( Final ):                28-136 ( $278.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 1-10 ( 10% )    Favorite's Win %: 57-136 ( 41.9% ) 

Aqueduct Winter ( Final ):                85-377 ( $616.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 5-16 ( 31.3% ) Favorite's Win % 139-377 ( 36.9% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4316-21042 ($35,798.90) +/-: -14.9% against a 16% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 477-1789( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8081-21779( 37.1% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4346-21657 ( $36,749.40 ) +/-: -15.1% against a 16.6% takeout