Cracker jack day for us here on Sunday, as we tied our all time high with wins on an 8 race card, as we got home 5 winners ( $4 x 2, $5, $6 & $18 ), along with three Ice Cold Doubles of $13 x 2 & $49, two cold Pick Threes of $34 & $121, and we cold decked a $23 Triple, as well.
We now have a flat bet profit for the meet, after 200 races, and are besting the grain with our "Beatable Favorites".
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Scarborough Fair | 2nd -She's Wicked Smart | 3rd -Gouldian |
| Race 2 | 1st -Carbon | 2nd -Union Suit | 3rd -Karen's Honor |
#6 CARBON closed out the triple in this race on the 23rd of January, and her 10:2-2-0 mark when breaking from the outermost two slots on a fast track stands out quite favorably against his 14:1-2-2 record in all other outings on a glib surface. From a limited sampling, barn is two of four with locally based sand sprinters who hit the money less than 22 days ago, and the winners came back $15, and $9. #2 UNION SUIT completed the exacta the only time she was in a second off the bench engagement, and finds herself at her lowest level today. #3 KAREN'S HONOR was an honest and decently clear runnerup and an identical placement last time out, and we seen no reason to dismiss.
| Race 3 | 1st -Skellig Island | 2nd -Ain't No Joke | 3rd -Noble Huntsman |
#2 SKELLIG ISLAND has finished in the back half of the pack in six consecutive outings, and eight of her last nine, but she hung up and adjusted 75.1 in her only third off the bench try, and now goes one turn on a track labeled FST for the first time. May perk up. #4 AIN'T NO JOKE went coast to coast like butter and toast to secure the sheepskin right here on 1/26, and while a bounce is always possible off of that, we'd be Silly McGilly to toss out. #5 NOBLE HUNTSMAN may plod along for a piece. NOTE: AS OF 10:08, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 4 | 1st -Neuschwanstein | 2nd -J D Factor | 3rd - I Got Busted |
#2 NEUSCHWANSTEIN is aggressively moved up the ladder after fading against 16k competion when being claimed on the 26th of January, and now totes the lightest impost of his career. Gelding has always been a bit of a nibbler in Ozone Park, but his best work has come at today's distance of ground, and rates a slight edge. #3 J D FACTOR has partaken in the superfecta in his last quartet, and has blinkers affixed for the first time while switching from a bug to a journeyman. #4 I GOT BUSTED showed absolutely nothing when shipping down from Canandaigua County last time out, but the jock sticks around, and as this one found the line first the only time he was made available for purchase, we'll include.
| Race 5 | 1st -Barstool Babe | 2nd -Danneel | 3rd -Exotic Cat |
#2 BARSTOOL BABE hasn't been seen since mid July, but completed the Exacta the only time she returned off a sabbatical, and is now entered at depths yet seen. Slim margin in a race this difficult to decipher. #7 DANNEEL gets a trainer switch to a new conditioner who has scored with his last three starters ( $10, $4, and $28 ) and must be included for that reason at the very least. #4 EXOTIC CAT is a professional maiden these days, but showed a bit of life at nearly 40-1 two starts back, and could spice things up beneath.
| Race 6 | 1st -Alternate Reality | 2nd -Ness entry | 3rd -Unbridled Bomber |
#3 ALTERNATE REALITY put forth a solid placing when being claimed away from Chatterpaul back in October, and appears to be decently spotted for his first start in three months. Logical if sound, but with three gaps in the worktab, it would behoove you to take a gander pre race. Both the #1 UNINVITED GUEST ( five exacta finishes from eight starts at the trip ) and the #1A CERTIFIED LOVERBOY ( who returns back at the level claimed from last time out ) comprise decent factions of the Ness entry. #2 UNBRIDLED BOMBER isn't the graded stakes placed horse he used to be, but has blinkers reaffixed this afternoon, and sheds a few ounces in running sans tes-tee-klees for the first time. NOTE: AS OF 10:12, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Willful Desire | 2nd -My First Love | 3rd -Will Be Famous |
#7 WILLFUL DESIRE is wheeled right back in six days in pursuit of the grand salami this afternoon, and given her ascension in the speed figure department over the last quartet, we'd say it's quite feasible. From a trainer stat point of view, this barn is six of seven with mid-level dirt runners who scored less than 22 days ago in the rear, and are ridden by today's pilot at 4-1 or beneath. Obviously the draw only helps matters. #2 MY FIRST LOVE has always been an extremely consistent sort, and should be in the thick of things once again. #4 WILL BE FAMOUS scored beneath Cancel two starts back, and he likely lost the mount on our top selection because of committing to this one before "Desire" was entered. NOTE: AS OF 10:16, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Alyvia Mavis | 2nd -Mary In the Irons | 3rd -Blue Eyed Scout |
#1 ALYVIA MAVIS has outran her parimutual offering quite impressively in her last two starts against maiden competition, having hit the board at 41-1, and 35-1. Gal has some sweet experience when breaking from the inside two post positions, as she's hit the board in four of six tries when doing such, and is supported by a solid Formulator stat. This 6% outfit is on a monstrous 10 for 14 run w/ dirt runners that have a "For Sale" sticker attached to their tushy, who hit the board less than a month ago and are in receipt of the Big L, ( while going off at 6-1 or beneath ). #8 MARY IN THE IRONS begins her working life today, and is showing a couple of top 10% moves on the worktab for today's overture. Honk if you like Donk with his local dirsters at this level going off at 28-1 or beneath, ( getting the miracle drug ), as he is on a three for nine run with that sort, and the winners came back a juicy $15, $11, and $44, with a subcategory of two for two when today's pilot is named. #4 BLUE EYED SCOUT gets an around the world treatment today, as she takes the biggest drop in the game, while losing the hood and getting some juice. NOTE: AS OF 10:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
Aqueduct : 47-200 ( $407 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-9( 22.2% ) Favorite's Win % : 74-200 ( 37% )( As of Thursday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
