Happy St. Valentine's Day, everyone !!
Decent day for us here yesterday, with a pair of profitable winners ( $12 & $7 ), two cold Exactas of $54 & $20, and a $63 Ice Cold Triple.
Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None
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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play. Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!
| Race 1 | 1st -Georgia Magic | 2nd -Ican | 3rd -Hawkstone |
#5 GEORGIA MAGIC hasn't shown much from a speed figure perspective in either start to date, ( despite winning one of those ) but we like to give a youngster two opportunities under a particular set of circumstances to prove himself, and this fella now goes over a glib surface for just the second time. Ridgling draws ideally, while getting blinks and the miracle drug, and is supported by a solid DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, trainer has a "Handal" on the situation with locally based dirt stock getting juice for the first time off breaks of 30-42 days, at 12-1 or <. He is a perfect six of six with that sort, while owning an ROI of $6.23. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the Beyers of #4 ICAN, as this fella has done nothing but improve with each passing start. Colt recently picked up 12% of the pot in a Derby prep, and should appreciate the drop in class today. #1 HAWKSTONE is another one back in with optional foes after a stakes try, and the only multiple winner in the field is also in receipt of the "Big L" for the 1st time.
| Race 2 | 1st -Rodeo Star | 2nd -Dear John | 3rd -Divorced of Course |
#6 RODEO STAR has blinkers after back to back ITM finishes, and theoretically, should be no worse than second for all you place punters out there. #2 DEAR JOHN appears to have the best shot of upsetting the above, based on having outran her 16-1 offering three starts back, when placing behind a daylight clear winner. #5 DIVORCED OF COURSE showed zilch in the comebacker, but hungry pilot ensures solid effort for the minor spoils.
| Race 3 | 1st -Clubhouse | 2nd -Powerfully Built | 3rd -Charging Aero |
These three and no more for all your rolling action. #1 CLUBHOUSE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but has done some decent work at this locale, and it's always encouraging to see the pre layoff pilot return. Recognize the unblemished two for two mark when made available for purchase. #4 POWERFULLY BUILT played the fade in his return engagement, but has partaken in the exacta in more than half of his starts at today's distance of ground, and now totes the lightest impost of his career. #2 CHARGING AERO is back at the level claimed from two starts ago, after showing versus tougher in the followup. Makes all kinds of sense, but leaving beneath because of the winless boxscore in Ozone Park. NOTE: AS OF 11:01, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 7 & 6 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.
| Race 4 | 1st -Van Vollenhoven | 2nd -Schlomo | 3rd -Ridolfi |
#2 VAN VOLLENHOVEN faded in the most recent without any palpable excuse, as the fractions were not necessarily too quick that day, but we are going to give him a chance to make amends in today's first start with eye cups. Meek choice in a race with but two first draft tosses. #8 SCHLOMO hasn't been seen since mid May, but was doing some decent work back then, having yet to miss a superfecta finish in three starts to date. The pre break pilot returns, and that's something we always like to see, & additionally, this one now returns sans pistachios. Obvious factor if sound and fully cranked up. #9 RIDOLFI only bested one when starting things out up in Canandaigua County at the end of November, but there is no scary drop for today's followup, and the 395 Tomlinson figure tells us to give this one another shot at things.
| Race 5 | 1st -Ice Road | 2nd -Winters Ghost | 3rd -Brooklyn Strong |
#3 ICE ROAD is a nibbler by rote, as the 30:2-8-6 career mark belies, but is reunited with the pilot from his last score, and this 6 year old "horse" ( You hang on to those cubes, buddy! ) Looks pretty solid in this spot. #2 WINTER'S GHOST has been a part of the triple and his last quartet, and while this gray gekding makes all kinds of sense, we are going to relegate to the unders because of his winless ledger in this zip code. It's extremely disappointing to see #7 BROOKLYN STRONG toiling in the claiming ranks these days, as this Grade Two winner has been winless in his last 25 outings, while being entered for as low as a dime at Penn National, if you can believe it. While we are all for older horses continuing to ply their trade in their later years, we like to see some competitiveness out of them, and as this one has only hit the board once in his last 11 outings, we are most definitely hoping he lands softly when all is said and done. NOTE: AS OF 11:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 6 | 1st -McAfee | 2nd -Arcadian | 3rd -Akinmusire |
Extremely difficult affair here, so tread lightly. #8 MCAFEE hasn't been in action since turkey time, but is a head short of owning an unblemished two for two record, and showed some nice improvement from a speed figure aspect when facing winners for the first time. Just may sit a sweet trip. #6 ARCADIAN handled the hike up in class with aplomb when winning in going away fashion after the maiden breaker, and is right back at that same level being entered for half'a C-note this afternoon. #3 AKINMUSIRE has Lasix added after a solid placing two fortnights back, and closer will have to navigate a clean sojourn from today's insideish slot. NOTE: AS OF 11:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 7 | 1st -Aggelos the Great | 2nd -Mariachi | 3rd -Acoustic Avenue |
#4 AGGELOS THE GREAT is a fairly steady sort, as this bay boy has hit the board in all nine one turn engagements. That includes solid efforts at this trip, over the strip, and beneath today's helmsman. Should be no worse than third for all of you show grinders out there. #2 MARIACHI is a bit of a fragile sort, but owns a nice boxscore at Aqueduct, and near 300K earner can be all yours for 45 large today. #1 ACOUSTIC AVENUE closed out the triple in both starts when first to load, and did the same in a sui generis outing beneath Lezcano. NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.
| Race 8 | 1st -Total Silence | 2nd -Free Dance | 3rd -Two Honest Mischief |
#1A TOTAL SILENCE was a daylight clear runnerup when falling short by only a nose in his one start with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his tooshie, and is now back at the level from that day, while getting the miracle drug for the first time. Recognize the best of 81 bullet breeze on the 3rd of the month, and with this one having improved with each passing start, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. #2 FREE DANCE takes the biggest drop in the game while sliding in four slots today, & must be left in the mix. #6 TWO HONEST MISCHIEF has been kept in jail since being claimed for 40K back on 1/5, and is a sensible addition once again. NOTE: AS OF 11:21, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 4 & 9 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.
Aqueduct : 49-208 ( $426.70 ) Beatable Favorites: 2-9( 22.2% ) Favorite's Win % : 77-208 ( 37% )( As of Friday morning )
All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )
Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 )
Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )
Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout
