2/15 - Kevin "Brooklyn Cowboy" Cox Aqueduct Selections

Just about a breakeven three bagger for us here yesterday, along with a $17 cold Triple. 

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #3 Radio Red

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I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O. Furthermore, if we amend our selections for a wet track, and the track becomes fast, our original selections are in play.  Note that we currently have had NINETEEN profitable meets thus far !!

#6 BUBBE DEAREST hasn't been seen since immolating some baccala right here in early October, and as a matter of fact, she disappeared off the worktab for three and a half months afterwards. Gal finds herself at her lowest level yet for the new barn, and is in receipt of the wonder drug for the first time. Mild choice in race that's hard to hug. #1A WILDCAT ANNIE showed improved speed when going over a fast track for the first time, and ended up closing out the superfecta at 9-1 that day. Gal now gets in with a feather, and could move forward once again in today's third start off the bench. #5 TALE OF THE TAIL yet to finish out of the super, and is dropped in class today for the 3rd straight time since starting things out. Could be sitting on another solid effort in today's "second time blinkers/second time juice" scenario.

#5 PAXSATIONAL popped and stopped in a wet track deal towards the end of 2024, but that's not really too much of a surprise, as this one has finished in the back half of the pack in all three starts over the goo. If you could draw some lines through those, so what you have is a chestnut chap who has an unblemished two for two mark when going 1X on a fast surface. Factor that in with a positive jockey change, and you have things to like with a horse who may offer a touch of value here. #6 IGNITE THE LIGHT on the other hand, found the off going to his liking on National Hangover Day, when essentially going all the way to procure the sheepskin. Even if a regression occurs today, the penultimate outing was this one's career best effort, & must be left in the mix. #1 ANTONIO OF VENICE hasn't done much to get the heart pumping in his last pair, but like our top selection, seems better suited for a good surface. Obvious factor in today's third start off the pine.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 RADIO RED 

#5 SHERRIF BIANCO hasn't found the winner's circle in nearly two annums, but is still cashing some substantial checks along the way, and it's hard to argue with the 17 ITM finishes from 22 starts over this oval. Slimmest of margins in a featured sprint that seems to be devoid of much early speed. #6 SHIPSATIONAL fell short by a half a length in his only third off the bench dirt dash, and is 4:1-1-1 when last to load. He hadn't been as close to the pace in the last one and a half years as he was last time out, and that different dimension puts him right in the thick of things here. #2 MAMA'S ( "Mama..." ) GOLD has done some excellent work since switching over to Jimmy Ferraro's Barn last year, ringing up two wire jobs ( one of them at 40-1 ) along with the 28-1 placing. As there are a dearth of 2X opportunities for him around these parts, today's truncated sand sprint is on the agenda. Obviously must include because of the solid declining Mark of 16:6-2-0 locally.  NOTE: AS OF 4:44 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

#4 PLAY GOOD PAY GOOD hasn't shown much in the last pair, and as a matter of fact had a claim voided for more than twice today's amount on New Year's day. Obviously, it would behoove you to take a hard look during the warmups, but at least it's encouraging to see Franco grab the irons. We'll be using, but pinching our nose at the same time. #6 SHEZANARCTICQUEEN has been kept in prison since the 1/19 purchase, and comes back at that same level today for a slightly better outfit. From a trainer stat POV, this shedrow more than doubles their normative 20% batting average when it comes to their freshly purchased locally based mid level female dirt sprinters, of absences of less than 47 days, as they are 6-16 with that sort, while owning a $2.33 ROI. #5 SPIRITUAL LADY has been claim protected in all three starts since the November snag, and after having not showing much, is back in with platers this afternoon. Chance to rebound.

#5 WILD BANKER showed a bit of life when besting half the field for the first time in seven starts on the 1st of the month, and on the whole, has done his best work beneath the seagulls. Jockey/Trainer combination picked up the lion's share the only time they teamed up in a claiming dirt event off a break of less than a month, and did such to the tune of $34. Price play in a wide open jamboree. #4 DEBATE is dropped in class off an even try versus 15K foes a week and a day back, and could be coming late with any sort of pace to cut into. #3 CENTAVO hasn't hit the board and his last sextet, but completed the triple the last time he was in a third of a L/O spot, and jock has done okay for Chatterpaul, who comes in on a 1-56 skein.

#6 SWEPT has yet to finish in the front half of the field in eight starts to date, but like we've said before, with maidens we go back absolutely anywhere in their past performances to find something positive, as they happen to be maidens for a reason. That being said, this one is showing an adjusted 63.8 in a maiden special weight event right here quite some time ago, and did such without the use of Lasix which is now a part of the makeup. From a Formulator point of view, what we have here is a trainer with a 6% winning percentage, who happens to be a nifty three of six with maiden claiming dirt runners off breaks of less than three fortnights at 57-1 or beneath. The winners in that study came back a whopping $84, $63, and $13, and in an allotment like this, why not take a shot? #8 ACCIDENTAL BID has never finished out of the superfecta, and has done such at this class level, and on this course. Absolutely must be left in the hopper. #9 CATTANI is another steady sort, and J/T combination have fared better together than apart.

These three should do the trick for all our rolling action. #6 GRAMMY GIRL has been a part of the exacta in both starts since returning off a five plus month sabbatical, and the figaro's posted far outperformed anything else she has hung up. Should be no worse than third for all you show grinders out there, as we see that her only pairing with today's pilot resulted in a score. #8 PATTY VAN WINKLE is pretty much as steady as they come, as this miss has been a part of the superfecta in all her outings but one. Pretty darn impressive for a girl who was bred for a mere 1500 clams. HAsshe has gone 58-63-81 and her three starts at the Big A, who knows where her ceiling from that standpoint. #1 THIRTEEN RED FLAGS enters off a lifetime best numero, and should be smack dab in the mix late in the game.

We're going to blast off with the old three...two...one... triple here. #3 WILLINTORISKITALL has hit the board and both starts since being transferred over to the James Ferraro barn, while having outran his odds in each. We would have preferred he'd been a bit closer to the pace in the most recent, and with the decent workout on the 7th of February, we wouldn't be surprised to see that be the case today. Timid choice in a race with one first draft toss. #2 HE HAS IT ALL got smacked around on the onset in the most recent, but despite being as far back as he's ever been at the quarter pole in his career, still came along honestly enough to complete the super at 17-1. Big shot with a cleaner beginning. #1 LIBERTY CENTRAL is a nibbler by rote, as the 14:1-6-4 lifetime ledger tells us, and included in that, are four straight losses at odds of 3-2 or less. Including, but with some angst.  NOTE: AS OF 10:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

#7 WAJDA has been kept in prison since being claimed for a double sawbuck back on the 5th of January, and returns back at that price today while  getting a bit of improvement in the saddle. Any port in the storm for a finale that we're just not digging. #3 PRAIRIE DUNES is a little bit better than he looks at first glance, as you can feel free to upgrade the recent wet track figure by about 20.2%, as she's that much better on a fast track than one with moisture in it. Looking for a bit of value here if possible. #4 DIALBOLICO has lost ground in the lane in every start to date, but is halved in price now, and we'll chunk in despite Jena Antonucci having just 1 win in her last 106 starts.

Aqueduct : 52-216 ( $442 )   Beatable Favorites: 2-9( 22.2% )  Favorite's Win % : 80-216 ( 37% )( As of Saturday morning )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ): (2013-2023 Final ) 83-496 ( $779.60 )

Dirt Tracks 2013-24 (All Final):4416-21557 ($36,451) +/-: -15.5% against a 16.2% takeout . Polytracks 2013-16 (All Final): 85-568 ( $819.20 ) 

Beatable Favorites : 484-1811( 26.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 8258-22007( 37.5% )

Cumulative Stats (All Final): 4446-22172 ( $37,401.50 ) +/-: -15.6% against a 16.5% takeout